Northern Trust: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.32% (2057.1), D +0.45% (17740.6), N +0.48% (4330.2), CL1 +0.54% (44.56), Copper -0.05% (215.35), Gold +0.80% (1287.90) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.7789), DXY +0.06% (93.84), Vix -7.48% (14.72).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close testing late afternoon intraday highs at the close. Volume off about 4% from yesterday to 7.1bln shares falling back below avg of 7.2bln. Dollars traded down 1% to $255bln, $4bln below est. 2:1 up volume vs down volume.

Payrolls the dominant event of the day with a miss and a downward revision. Yields/E-mini’s/Dollar initially lower: quick 40bps down in stocks, 10yr down to just over 1.7% in initial reaction. Short-covering out of the gate with the Most-Shorted up >1% 15min in to the day only to close up just 15bps and actually in negative territory for the majority of the day (-4.6% for the week). The broader market gained a little strength to mid-afternoon highs, with a broad technology-led push in the early afternoon to the day’s highs. Didn’t seem like a lot of real leadership among the best performing sectors today save some outperformance by defensive, yield oriented names of Real Estate, Staples, Telco adding to their gains. Despite a better day for Financials, Industrial, Materials damage done for the week already. Emblematic for the week the SHUT Index (staples, healthcare, utes, telco) outperforming, up 45bps this week while the TIME Index (tech, industrial, materials, energy) easily underperforming, -2%. A 6% range this week for Crude but -3% for the week after a solid month: looking like a Golden Cross coming next week. Commodity unwind felt with Aluminum -4.6% for the week, Copper -5.8%. Yields end the day up but June hike probabilities down to 8% – was closer to 25% a week and a half ago. Dollar pretty much flat today. In single names, validation on results from buy ideas of ours ARISTA +5.1%, continuing to gain mkt share, and ACTIVISION +8.5%, benefiting from digital gaming w/ more drivers to come. APPLE (Sell) -55bps continues to underperform as the super-cycle is ending, -60bps today, new low for the move, just barely above January lows. Seemed like more disappointments than not generally on #s to end the week: TABLEAU -11.3%, SQUARE -21.7%, US CELLULAR -12.2%, FIREYE -19%, GOPRO -2.3% to name a few and most notably ENDO -39.2%. Positioning still a driver out there w/ YELP +23.7% & ATWOOD OCEANICS +33.3%, with short interests of 12.5% and 39% respectively. Retailers highlighting earnings next week, with the space at one seems like a critical juncture with the XRT etf -2.7% for the week, 3rd week in a row down, 4th in 5.

OUTPERFORMERS: Metals/Mining +4.4%, Gold Miners +4.4%, Drillers +3.1%, Coal +1.5%, Software/Services +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Airlines -1.3%, Explorers -1.2%, Managed Care -85bps, Dept Stores -80bps, Pharma -75bps

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Real Estate +3.8%, Household Products +2.1%, Packaged Foods +2.1%, Food/Staples Retailers +1.8%, Staples +1.7%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Metals/Mining -15.8%, Solar -7.1%, Explorers -6.4%, Oil Services -6.3%, Dept Stores -5.7%

COMMODITIES: OJ +2.7%, Coffee +2.5%, Soybeans +2.2%, Gold +1.5%, Silver +1.1%…..Nickel -4.5%, Cocoa -2.7%, Aluminum -1.5%, Lean Hogs -1.3%, Sugar -0.6%

ECON: Nonfarm Payrolls 160k vs 200k est, Unemployment Rate 5% vs 4.9% est, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.8% vs 63% est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
ARISTA NETWORKS +5.1% q2 revs beat, mkt share gains
TABLEAU -11.3% q1 beat but license revs fall
SQUARE -21.7% q1 revs beat, reverses initial gains on lack of revs guide higher
UBIQUITI NETWORKS +7.2% q1 beat & raise
YELP +23.7% q1 beat, raises fy view
ACTIVISION +8.5% q1 beat & raise
SCIENTIFIC GAMES –5.6% q1 revs miss
CERNER -3.3% q1 revs miss, bookings disappoint
EW SCRIPPS +9.8% q1 revs beat
MADISON SQ GARDEN -60bps q3 revs beat
GOGO WIRELESS -2.5% q1 beat but no raise on guidance
COGNIZANT +5.1% q1 miss but positive outlook
US CELLULAR +12.2% q1 miss
TELEPHONE & DATA -9.5% q1 revs miss
YANDEX -50bps d/g @ Citi
GOPRO -2.3% q1 loss wider than est, product delays
FIREYE -19% q1 miss
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS -5% q1 beats but q2 seen below est
SS&C TECHNOLOGY -5.8% q1 beats but q2 revs below street
NEWSCORP +4.4% q3 revs beat
TIME WARNER CABLE +0.3% / CHARTER +40bps FCC approval

CONSUMER
WYNN RESORTS +1.8% q1 beat
HERBALIFE +9.1% says close to resolving FTC prob
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS +15bps q1 global revpar touch light
POST HLDGS +5.1% q2 beat and raise
GENERAL MOTORS +1.4% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
CAESARS +45bps q1 loss
WINGSTOP +2.9% q1 beat, raises fy view
JC PENNEY -7.5% press report may miss qtrly goals

HEALTHCARE
ENDO INT’L -39.2% q1 eps beat, revs inline, cuts fy view, board changes
DEPOMED -4% q1 miss, narrows fy view
DENTSPLY +2.1% q1 beat
MEDIVATION +1.3% p/t raised @ Leerink
INTERCEPT -2.7% p/t cut @ UBS
PERKIN ELMER +6.8% q1 beat & raise

FINANCIALS
WILLIS TOWERS WATSON -2.9% q1 beat but no raise, organic growth concerns
CIGNA -3% q1 revs miss, Anthem deal may be delayed
BANKRATE +6.3% q1 beat & raise

CAPITAL GOODS
AMERICAN AXLE +8.2% q1 beat, new buyback
MCDERMOTT +7.1% q1 revs beat raises fy view
FLUOR CORP -5.3% q1 miss, cuts fy view

ENERGY
DELEK +7.1% q4 loss less than est
GREAT PLAINS ENERGY -1.5% q1 eps beat, reaffirms
ATWOOD OCEANICS +33.3% q2 beat, 39% short interest

REIT
WYERHAEUSER +20bps q1 beat

MATERIALS
ARCELORMITTAL -95bps q1 adj ebitda inline, revs light

UTILITIES
CON EDISON -1.9% q1 eps miss
EXELON +85bps q1 eps miss, revs beat