Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.21% (2048.0), D -0.05% (17492.9), N -0.18% (4355.1), CL1 -0.68% (47.75), Copper -0.02% (205.50), Gold +0.01% (1249.25) 10YrYld -0.00 (1.8350), DXY -0.10% (95.24), Vix +4.08% (15.82).

The S&P closed down 15bps from European close fading to the lows of the day over the last hour.  Volumes off 11% today to 5.9bln shares, nearly 20% below avg.  Dollars traded off 19% to $202bln, $60bln below avg.  60% of volume printing to the downside.

Overall a quiet day for the S&P, trading in just a 30bps range for the day until falling out of that range in the last 15min.  Seems to be largely a continued unwind with Most Shorted up 60bps today, up > the S&P 6 of last 7 days,  while ytd winners (and scarcity of yield plays) like staples, utilities, telco among the worst performers.  Materials up up strong on the backs of Bayer’s formal approach to MONSANTO +4.4%.  Tech hardware up too with APPLE (NTS Sell) +1.3% on reports of a possibly higher than expected iPhone 7 build.  We don’t see those headlines as indicative of change as discussed in today’s daily and would fade the strength in Apple and its suppliers.  Retail back in the red today w/ XRT -1%.  Inevitably the recent move serving up opportunities and we see that the case in L BRANDS (NTS QCC) -40bps for the long-term.  Yields basically remain unch’d as did the Dollar Index.  The yield curve flattens again making a new low for the move after briefly steepening post-Fed minutes last week, BKX Index, Regional Bank Index both down inline w/ the broader mkt today.  That said the mkt moved up its perceived chances of a June hike slightly to 32%.  Every economic release taking on more and more importance now.  Today’s Markit US Manf PMI light of estimates to a multi-year low.  Richmond Fed, New Home Sales tommorow with Markit US Services, Durable Goods later in the week.

OUTPERFORMERS:  Metals/Mining +2.7%, Coal +2.2%, Chemicals +1.7%, Solar +1.5%, Materials +1.9%.

UNDERPERFORMERS: Refiners -1.8%, Drillers -1.6%, Homebuilders -1.2%, Goldminers -1.1%, Railroads -1%

COMMODITIES: Cocoa +1.6%, Corn +80bps , Gasoline +60bps , Copper unch’d , NatGas unch’d …..Cattle -2.6%, Coffee -2%, OJ -1.6%, Sugar -1.6%, Soybeans -1.5%

ECON: Markit US Manf PMI 50.5 vs 51 est

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

SEASPAN -8% secondary
NORDSON +5.7% #s beat
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON -2.6% secondary for p/e hldr​

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
APPLE +1.3% press reports of higher than est iPhone 7 orders w/ suppliers
TRIBUNE PUBLISHING +15% rejects GANNETT -2.4%bid, offers talks​
AIXTRON +14.1% $752mm deal to be acq’d by Chinese consortium
NETSUITE -80bps init sell @ Goldman
SQUARE +80bps u/g @ CLSA
PANDORA +55bps u/g @ B. Riley
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY +8.7% u/g @ Goldman
RED HAT +2.2% positive comments in Barron’s
TRIPADVISOR +3.6% positive investor presentation

FINANCIALS
AMERICAN CAPITAL +65bps to be acq’d by ARES CAPITAL -2.4% in $3.4bln deal

CAPITAL GOODS
SOLARCITY +9.6% testing new system in Hawaii

CONSUMER
YUM! BRANDS +50bps reit top lrg cap pick @ Oppenheimer
ULTA BEAUTY -1.2% p/t raised @ Oppenheimer
BIG LOTS -3.8% d/g @ Deutsche
CALLAWAY GOLF +6% u/g @ Wunderlich
FIAT CHRYSLER -5.1% quesitons on emissions tests

HEALTHCARE
RELYPSA +7.8% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
ANTHEM -1.9% / CIGNA -3.9% deal consummation doubted in press
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC -5bps d/g @ BTIG

CAPITAL GOODS
JOHNSON CONTROLS -45bps positive comments in Barron’s
BOEING +15bps cautious comments in Barron’s

MATERIALS
MONSANTO +4.4% receives $62bln bid from Bayer
ALCOA +1.9% u/g @ BofA/Merrill

ENERGY
ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS +50bps u/g @ Goldman
SCHLUMBERGER +10bps u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman

TRANSPORTATION
RYDER -1.1% cautious follow-up mention in Barron’s

SERVICES
FIRST DATA +4.5% positive mention in Barron’s