Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.18% (2075.3), D -0.33% (17674.8), N +0.05% (4424.9), CL1 -1.90% (47.95), Copper -0.41% (204.50), Gold +0.18% (1286.14) 10YrYld +0.00 (1.6130), DXY +0.62% (94.93), Vix -2.24% (20.50).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close to end the day at afternoon highs and about in the middle of the day’s range. Volumes up about 10% to 7.3bln moving above avg of 6.7bln. Dollars traded up less than 5% to $266bln, $20bln above avg. Touch shy of 3/4 of volume printing to the downside.

Largely more of the same today, as the mkt continues a slow retreat with the S&P closing below the 50 day for the first time in just over 3 weeks. Perhaps not coincidentally stocks down 4 days in a row as is crude though the latter still well above its 50 day. With Brexit still looming the dollar gains (Pound out at lows basically: 1.4107) also perhaps keeping a bit of a lid on commodities. Fed tomm and expiration looming Friday also on the mind. One diff today is rates rising, the afternoon move helping pull stocks off the lows. 10yr yield up for just the 2nd time in 11 sessions though large cap banks one of the worst performers today to worst level in 2 months. Other than the money center/capital market exposed institutions, consumer finance notably weak with SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL -13.1% the catalyst after it sees higher write-offs. Remains to be seen if a true canary in the coalmine but investors struck by the sudden change of view and attribution to “general softening” rather than a choice on their part to move up the risk spectrum. If indicative, not a positive for auto loans and supportive of PeakAuto view: FIAT CHRYSLER -60bps particularly exposed to weakness here and financing partner SANTANDER CONSUMER -8% reacting. On the plus side ‘constants’ and ‘compounders’ trade well in as uncertainty and search for yield continues: new relative high for our recently reconstituted US QCC basket outperforming 5 of the last 6 days.

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +1%, Household Products +80bs, Explorers +80bps, Cap Goods +45bps, Utes +30bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -2.5%, Airlines -2.5%, Banks -2.3%, Metals/Mining -2%, Dept Stores -1.8%

COMMODS: Lean Hogs +1.7%, Corn +1.4%, NatGas +60bps, Cattle +55bps, Gold +10bps…..OJ -2.2%, Coffee -1.6%, Gasoline -1.5%, Wheat -1.3%, Sugar -1.1%

ECON: NFIB Small Business Optimism 93.8 vs 93.6 est, Import Price Index m/m +1.4% vs 0.7% est, y/y -5% vs -5.9% est, Retail Sales Advance m/m +0.5% vs 0.3% est, ex-auto m/m +0.4% inline, ex-auto/gas +0.3% inline, Business Inventories +0.1% vs 0.2% est

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

HIGH-CRUSH PARTNERS -7.3% 3mm share offering
BOB EVANS FARMS -1.3%q4 beat but fy view below est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
BAIDU -1.7% cuts forecast
PANDORA -1.4% positive comments @ Canaccord
ALIBABA +3.1% sees growth rising in forecast
SONY +55bps announces release date for PlayStation VR
NXP SEMI -5bps selling Standard Products division for $2.75bln

HEALTHCARE
VALEANT +1.5% looks to unload dermatology assets
ZIMMER BIOMET -1.2% spot secondary prices
SPARK THERAPEUTICS -11% 3.5mm share offering
REVANCE THERAPEUTICS -28% poor trial result
MINERVA NEUROSCIENCE prices secondary
IMMUNOGEN -29.5% $100mm covert offering
PERRIGO +9.2% reports near deal to be purchased

FINANCIALS
SYNCHRONY -13.1% sets aside more for losses

CAPITAL GOODS
NAVISTAR -12.8% d/g to sell @ Stifel

CONSUMER
HYATT -65bps d/g @ Wells Fargo