Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.92% (2096.1), D -0.67% (17865.3), N -1.14% (4461.1), CL1 -3.24% (48.93), Copper -0.42% (203.05), Gold +0.38% (1274.59) 10YrYld -0.05 (1.6387), DXY +0.68% (94.60), Vix +16.33% (17.03).

The S&P closed down 25bps from the European close inclusive of a 30bps move off the lows of the day in the last 45min. Volumes up about 10% today to 6.7bln shares, inline w/ the 20 day avg. Dollars traded +15% today to just shy of $250bln touch above avg. 85% of volume printing to the downside.

Biggest move either way in 12 sessions and biggest down move in 3 and a half weeks on most volume all week. A lot continuation and amplification of what we already started to see this week: that most notably being yields really starting to crack lower. 10yr yield trades intraday below the Jan 2015 low closing just above that level at 1.642%. Yield curve flattening continues now inline w/ mid-December 2007 level. Market continuing to push out rate hike expectations with pricing indicating just 17.6% in July (June a 0% fwiw) and a better than 50% chance of a hike not until February 2017 at the moment. Dollar Index though closes at highs today with GBP at 1.4272 on a Brexit poll showing a 10-pt lead for leaving. Not surprisingly gold continuing higher putting together 2 solid weeks in a row now. While down today, Crude another story for the week trading over $50 this week and up for the 14th week out of the last 17, 4 of the last 5. Rig counts today showed 3 more oil and nat gas rigs each. We continue to believe crude needs to, and likely to, rally further and sustain higher still prices for meaningful production to resume. For the day in stocks Energy, High Beta, Most Shorted all strongly underperforming (and likely a good deal of overlapping constituents). Banks continue to struggle w/ the yield moves esp after a bit of optimism prior the jobs report taking the wind out of the Fed’s sails. BKX Index falling back <200dma. Small Caps while outperforming in last 3 weeks look quick to be sold at any hint of trouble. Staples, yield-proxy, defensive labels just about cover the pockets of outperformance today.

OUTPERFORMERS: Telecom +85bps, Food/Staples Retailers +70bps, Staples +10bps, Household Prods unch’d, Steel -10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -8.7%, Metals/Mining -5%, Solar -4.7%, Drillers -4.6%, Explorers -4.2%

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +9.1%, Oil Services +6.1%, Airlines +3.1%, Telecom +2.8%, Goldminers +1.8%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -14.6%, Metals/Mining -6.8%, Solar -4.1%, Inv Banks -3.4%

COMMODS: Coffee +2.2%, Soybeans +90bps, OJ +60bps, Silver +40bps, Gold +40bps…..Gasoline -3.9%, Crude -3.1%, Wheat -3%, Heating Oil -2.3%, NatGas -1.7%

ECON: U of Michigan Sentiment 94.3 vs 94.0 est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
ACTIVISION -2% May industry NPD data +18% y/y
NOKIA -1.2% added to focus list @ JPMorgan
MARVEL -4.3% sees q1 revs lower, delays filing
NETFLIX -3.4% est below street @ ITG
INTEL +30bps said to win Apple business displacing QUALCOMM -2.1%
APPLIED MATERIALS -1.4% $2bln b/b
PANDORA -2.9% Amazon said to plan streaming service

FINANCIALS
E-TRADE -2.5% block trade prints

HEALTHCARE
ZOETIS -1.6% d/g @ Citi
ABBVIE +40bps d/g @ BMO
CELGENE -3% positive comments @ Citi
MYRIAD GENETICS -9% setbacks noted @ Cowen
ORGANOVO +8.4% raises fy17 revs view
SOPHIRIS BIO +69.2% positive study

CONSUMER
POLARIS INDUSTRIES -3.8% d/g Longbow
WALGREENS +4.4% RITEAID +3.4% FTC leaning towards approval per press
H&R BLOCK +12.5% q4 revs beat
MATTRESS FIRM -12.5% cuts view
URBAN OUTFITTERS -5.8% sees q2 comps tracking down mid-single digits
TESLA -4.6% negative feature in WSJ

CAPITAL GOODS
DOVER -2% u/g @ Bernstein
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC -3.9% d/g @ Seaport Global
PENTAIR -1.3% u/g @ Seaport Global
TORO CO. -3.3% d/g @ Sidoti

MATERIALS
CLIFFS NATURAL +1.2% u/g @ Macquarie
CORNING -2.4% d/g to sell @ Drexel Hamilton
AXIALL +26.2% to be bought for $2.4bln by WESTLAKE CHEMICAL +3%
BEACON ROOFING +35bps u/g @ BB&T
MONSANTO -75bps said to turn down new Bayer offer at same price

ENERGY
ANTERO RESOURCES -5.7% secondary, paying $450mm for Marcellus acreage

TRANSPORTS
EXPEDITORS -1.4% #s below street @ Cleveland Research