Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.17% (2115.5), D -0.11% (17985.2), N -0.18% (4512.7), CL1 -1.50% (50.46), Copper -1.14% (203.80), Gold +0.51% (1269.26) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.6798), DXY +0.55% (94.10), Vix +3.98% (14.64).

The S&P closed up 30bps from the European close steadily working better all afternoon. Volumes continue to fall, down 7% to 6.1bln shares vs 6.8bln avg. Dollars traded off 5% to $215bln, more than $30bln below avg. 2:1 down volume over up volume.

Another tight trading range today, <50bps on the S&P, never quite going positive in first down day this week. Defensives, esp yield proxies, the leaders today with utilities across all-caps at the top of the board. Telcom, Staples not far behind. Yields continuing to fall w/ 10 year <1.675% through previous spring lows of April, May and closing in on Feb low, and the curve just making a new, multi-year low and banks continue to roll from late May high, BKX Index down 1.2% today. The air coming out of high-beta names in part on Energy lower w/ crude taking a break off more than 1% today, copper down too which helped pressure materials. Traders back on shorts w/ most-shorted down 75bps on the day. Some money taken out of small-caps after a bit of a run. Dollar up for 1st day in five while gold up for 4th day in 5 and up almost 5.5% since recent low less than 2 weeks ago. Quality continues to attract premiums in world short on growth, yield, and consistency as US QCC closes at another new high. NVIDIA (NTS Buy) +2.6% leads the QCC basket today. ACTIVISION (NTS Buy) +1.1% also strong today. We note 4 recent bullish points in today’s ideas piece in support of the theme ahead of the E3 Conf. Worth noting retail under pressure again with RESTORATION HARDWARE -21.2% as disaster du jour. XRT -1.5% getting very close to relative low vs S&P 3 weeks ago in the height of earnings blowups in the space. MATTRESS FIRM, URBAN OUTFITTERS both down after-hrs tonight in the space. Several QCC plays worth considering in the space, call to discuss – some common threads (no pun) in common w/ the names. WALMART -25bps (NTS Buy) for scale and exposure the long tail of the US consumers and, new this week in our ideas, MANHATTAN ASSOC -1.4% (NTS Buy), provider of the tools to compete online, also names we would buy that are well positioned to outperform.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +1.6%, Airlines +1.6%, Packaged Foods +1.5%, Utilities +90bps, Food/Bev/Tobacco +60bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Metals/Mining -5.9%, Coal -2.5%, Steel -2.3%, Solar -2.1%, Dept Store -2%, Banks -1.3%

COMMODS: NatGas +5.4%, Silver +1.8%, OJ +1.4%, Gold +80bps, Sugar +70bps…..Coffee -4.1%, Wheat -1.8%, Crude -1.5%, Heating Oil -1.2%, Copper -1.1%

ECON: Initial Jobless Claims 264k vs 270k est, Wholesale Inventories m/m +0.6% vs 0.1% est


ANTERO RESOURCES -2.5% secondary, paying $450mm for Mrcellus acreage
H&R BLOCK +3.8% q4 revs beat
ORGANOVO +9.1% raises fy17 revs view
MATTRESS FIRM -11.6% cuts view
SOPHIRIS BIO +46.2% positive study
GEVO -28.7% secondary
APPLIED MATERIALS +1.6% $2bln b/b
URBAN OUTFITTERS -7% sees q2 comps tracking down mid-single digits


APPLE +70bps reit o/p @ Credit Suisse
FORTINENT -90bps positive comments @ Oppenheimer
PANDORA +1.2% u/g @ Axiom
QUALCOMM +10bps d/g @ Brean
WIX.COM +4.3% p/t raised @ JPMorgan
SKYWORKS -60bps d/g to sell @ Citi
QORVO +5bps u/g @ Citi
NVIDIA +2.6% p/t raised @ UBS
LINKEDIN +2% u/g @ RBC
YAHOO +1% report of multiple bids >$5bln
GROUPON -6.3% negative mention @ M Science
WAYFAIR -6.4% q2 revs seen below est @ M Science
FITBIT +3.2% positive comments @ Wedbush

RESTORATION HARDWARE -21.2% surprise q1 loss, cuts forecast
FRANCESCA’S +1.8% q1 sales miss, lowers view but positive co. comments
SIGNET +30bps positive comments @ Nomura
COACH -1.5% CFO departs for RALPH LAUREN
JM SMUCKER +7.9% q4 beat
VAIL RESORTS +2.9% q3 eps beat, raises fy ebitda view
TESLA -2.6% brings back Model S 60 at lower price
HERSHEY +2.9% renewed t/o talk
BRINKER +4% positive sales update
SPIRIT AIR +2.8% strong May traffic
CHIPOTLE -3.1% negative comments in Barron’s

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC +2.3% lowers gaap eps view on restructuring
LABCORP -20bps #s, p/t raised @ Credit Suisse
ENVISION +8.3% reportedly in talks w/ AMSURG +4%
TEAM HEALTH -8.2% seen loser in potential EVHC/AMSG deal
VALEANT +6.5% said considering sale of Egyptian drug maker

WAGEWORKS +75bps p/t raised @ Stifel
UBS -2.5% u/g @ Barclays

SAREPTA +8% places spot secondary
AGIOS PHARMA -14.9% poor study data

AGRIUM -1.2% d/g to sell @ CLSA

MURPHY USA +2% added as franchise pick @ Jefferies
NRG ENERGY -6.7% d/g to sell @ UBS
APACHE -2.1% positive comments @ Bernstein
TESCO -10.9% 7mm share offering