Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.29% (2099.1), D -0.18% (17807.1), N -0.48% (4509.8), CL1 -0.75% (48.79), Copper +2.32% (211.80), Gold +2.86% (1245.64) 10YrYld -0.10 (1.7004), DXY -1.70% (93.94), Vix -1.17% (13.47).

The S&P closed up 40bps from the European close ending the day lower but close to the day’s best levels. Volumes up 8.4% to 7bln shares just over avg of 6.9bln shares. Dollars traded up 4% to $252bln also just past avg of $250bln. Slightest edge to down volume, 51-49, over up.

A surprisingly weak NFP # of course the big story today but stocks generally pretty resilient in posting its 6th straight session of a sub-50bps closing move up or down. No surprise yield sensitive names the biggest movers. Large/mid/small cap Utilities the best performers on the day. Materials strong on gold performance (+2.8%) not far behind. Real Estate, Semis (AVGO + 4.9% on #s) & the Dividend Aristocrats Index also outperforming. As to be expected Banks, Diversified Financials, Insurers bringing up the real joined by Autos, Small Caps, and Consumer Durables. Moves of a larger magnitude found outside of stocks. In rates the 10yr yield looks to have dropped the most on any day this year moving down to 1.7%. 2yr Yields imploding to 77bps from 89bps yest therefore actually steepening the yield curve. Of course rate hike odds completely re-calculated w/ June all but off the table from 22% pre # to just a 4% chance now. July odds just about halved to 27%. December in fact now the first meeting currently priced for a greater than 50% chance of a hike. The Dollar closes on the lows w/ DXY off 1.7% to 3 and a half week lows. All that and the S&P closes flat for the week having stayed in a <1% range over the course of all 4 days. Fed Chair Yellen herself conveniently scheduled to speak mid-session on Monday.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +10.5%, Metals/Mining +4%, Coal +3.8%, Utilities +1.7%, Railroads +1.5%

UNDERPERFORMERS: I-Banks -3%, Banks -2%, Solar -2%, Autos -1.4%, Refiners -1.3%

COMMODS: Sugar +3.7%, Coffee +3.3%, Gold +2.6%, Wehat +2.4%…..Gasoline -1.5%, Heating Oil -1.1%, Soybeans -1.1%, Crude -80bps, Cocoa -40bps

ECON: Non-Farm Payrolls 38k vs 160k est, Private Payrolls 25k vs 150k est, Manf Payrolls -10k vs -2k est, Unemployment Rate 4.7% vs 4.9%, Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% inline, y/y 2.5% inline, Labor Force Participation 62.6%, Markit US Services PMI 51.3 vs 51.4 est, US Composite PMI 50.9, ISM Non-Manf 52.9 vs 55.3 est, Factory Orders 1.9% inline, ex-trans 0.5%, Durable Goods 3.4%, Cap Goods Order Nondef ex-air -0.6%

TMT
BROADCOM +4.9% q2 beat, forecast better than est
AMBARELLA +9.4% q1 beat
YAHOO -1.5% / TWITTER unch’d: story refreshed in press
BAIDU -1.1% self-driving car plans discussed in WSJ
WEBMD -1.8% d/g @ William Blair
GRUBHUB +2.9% init buy @ Maxim
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD -2.3% positive comments @ Cowen
ORACLE +1.1% u/g @ OTR Research
GOGO WIRELESS -16.1% loses out on American Airlines contract to VIASAT +4.5%
GLOBALSTAR -54.9% 2nd ‘no’ vote at FCC

HEALTHCARE
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY -1.5% positive comments @ Leerink
SHIRE +1.1% p/t raised @ Jefferies
ICON -5% d/g @ Jefferies
IMMUNOMEDICS -14.7% ASCO presentation pulled
COOPER COS -1.2% q2 beat, raises fy view

CONSUMER
LULULEMON +15bps positive checks @ Sterne Agee
SIGNET -4.4% responds to ‘diamond swaping’ allegations
GAP INC +4.2% May sales negative but still beat est
ZUMIEZ -4.3% q1 loss, q2 seen below est
FIVE BELOW +2.1% q1 beat

CAPITAL GOODS
DEERE +1.8% u/g @ Goldman
PACCAR -2.4% d/g @ Goldman
JA SOLAR -6.5% d/g @ Roth Capital

FINANCIALS
NORTHSTAR ASSET MGMT -3.4% all-stock merger w/ COLONY CAPITAL -5.5%, NORTHSTAR REALTY -3.7%

ENERGY
WEATHERFORD +3.9% u/g @ Piper Jaffray

MATERIALS
CF INDUSTRIES +2.3% reinstated neutral @ Goldman
MULTI PACKAGING SOLUTIONS +1.3% prices secondary
POTASH +1.8% China deal seen delayed @ VTB
MONSANTO +60bps media report Bayer to increase bid

TRANSPORTATION
UNION PACIFIC +2.1% u/g @ Morgan Stanley

UTILITIES
TALEN ENERGY +17.2% going private in $1.8bln deal