Northern Trust Securities: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.43% (2099.1), D +0.25% (17873.2), N +0.55% (4512.5), CL1 +0.10% (49.52), Copper +0.40% (211.10), Gold -0.67% (1211.82) 10YrYld +0.02 (1.8510), DXY +0.62% (95.76), Vix -2.31% (13.12).

The S&P closed at the highs of the day, up 20bps from the European close with all of that gain coming in the last hour of the day. Volumes down another 10% today to 5.3bln shares vs avg of 7.1bln. Dollars traded off 9% to $192bln, 25% below avg. 2/3 of volume printing to the upside.

A fairly quiet day ahead of the long weekend in the US even with remarks from Janet Yellen today. Ultimately nothing new or overly specific from the Chair with a rate hike appropriate “probably in the coming months”. Stocks sold off a touch in reaction but gained it all back and then some. Rates did move to the highs as Yellen spoke and stay there with the 10yr at 1.85%. No hint from Yellen though at more of a commitment to regular increases by any means as the yield curve continues to flatten w/ the short end reacting much more to the increasing likelihood of a summer move. The Dollar rises through the afternoon as well, DXY +65bps, to close at highs of the week and best level in 2 months. Gold continues to fall in turn breaking below late March, early April lows, now down 8 days in a row and 6 of the last 7 weeks. Oil just goes green late today as US rig counts fall 2 after being flat last reading. 3rd week in a row of gains >3% for oil and 13 of last 15 weeks in the green. Pretty positive tone overall in stocks w/ what volume we did have today w/ small caps, media, financial-related names, transports, and software all outperforming. Staples, energy, materials lagging a bit. Econ data in focus next week given the Fed focus now: Case-Shiller data, Consumer Confidence, ISM #s, Construction Spending, and of course on Friday the Payroll #s the coming highlights.

OUTPERFORMERS: Dept Stores +2.4%, Social Media +1.6%, Refiners +1%, Media +1%, Insurance +90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2.9%, Metals/Mining -1.8%, Coal -1.1%, Explorers -60bps, Drillers -30bps

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Coal +11.9%, Tech Hardware +5.1%, Semis +4.6%, Steel +4%, Drillers +3.9%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -7.9%, Refiners -35bps, Airlines -15bps, Rails +25bps, Metals/Mining +50bps

COMMODS: Cocoa +3.1%, Corn +1.1%, Cattle +90bps, NatGas +60bps, Soybeans +60bps…..OJ -1.1%, Gold -80bps, Silver -75bps, Heating Oil -33bps, Hogs -25bps, Coffee -15bps

ECON: GDP Annualized q/q q1 +0.8% vs 0.9% est, Personal Consumption +1.9% vs 2.1% est, GDP Price Index +0.6% vs 0.7% est, U of Mich Sentiment 94.7 vs 95.4 est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
SPLUNK +2.6% q1 beat but guides just inline
VEEVA SYSTEMS +8.1% q1 beats, raises fy view
PALO ALTO NETWORKS -12.4% q3 inline, q4 revs view midpoint below est
WORKDAY -2.5% d/g @ Wedbush
APPLIED MATERIALS +3% positive comments in Barron’s
LIBERTY GLOBAL +2.2% renewed talk of possible Vodafone deal
WESTERN DIGITAL +1.4% recovers early losses on q4 guidance
EMC -5bps d/g @ Longbow

CAPITAL GOODS
TEREX -14.1% Zoomlion ends talks

HEALTHCARE
ALERE +3.9% FDA sets panel mtg
RELYPSA +8.8% competitor drug rejected by FDA
THERMO FISHER +60bps p/t raised @ Mizuho

CONSUMER
BIG LOTS +14.1% q1 beat & raise
DECKERS OUTDOOR +8% reverses losses after q1 miss, lowers forecast
GAMESTOP -3.9% q1 beats but q2 seen below est
ULTA SALONS +9.1% q1 eps/revs beat
HONDA -2.1% / TOYOTA -1.6% both d/g to sell @ UBS

FINANCIALS
LENDING CLUB +10.1% said to be in talks to sell loans to Citi

MATERIALS
MONSANTO -10bps d/g @ Atlantic