Northern Trust Capital Markets: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.18% (2071.5), D -0.20% (17640.2), N -0.35% (4409.5), CL1 -2.06% (47.49), Copper +2.45% (209.05), Gold -0.02% (1291.50) 10YrYld -0.04 (1.5720), DXY -0.34% (94.60), Vix -1.76% (20.14).

The S&P closed down 35bps from the European close to end the day just about at session lows selling off in the last half hour. Volumes off 7% to 6.8bln shares inline w/ avg. Dollars traded off 10% to $243bln, slipping a touch below avg. About of 60% volume printing to the upside.

The market was poised to reverse its 4 day slide but abruptly reversed course late session as investors evaluated the implications of the Fed statement and Fed Chair Yellen’s subsequent press conf comments. The market as we know does not respond well to uncertainty, and it seems a dovish turn here by the Fed was net, net unwelcome as a less than ringing endorsement of the economic picture, even beyond the s/t potential of Brexit. At least today not a lot of incremental ‘lower for longer buyers’ coaxed into the market on the the shift in outlook with now 6 Fed members seeing only one hike this year up from 1 in the prev meeting. From 2pm on, when the statement was first released, all things financials underperformed as did transports, autos, and energy as crude moved to lows (despite a pop this morning on gov’t inventories data). Real estate, utilities, telecom, staples unch’d to down small in the last 2hrs. One constant today was the outperformance of most-shorted, which seemed to be an impetus for the day’s initial strength. While closing at afternoon lows, the most-shorted index still gained 1.1%. 10yr yields fall, closing below the late-Jan 2015/mid-May 2013 prior low. 1.572% inline w/ Nov 2012. Dollar falling too w/ DXY -30bps today while emerging mkts (EEM +1.1%) and metals higher.

OUTPERFORMERS: Metals/Mining +7.7%, Gold Miners +4.1%, Steel +1.9%, Dept Stores +1.8%, Coal +1.6%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Utilities -70bps, Explorers -70bps, Healthcare Equip/Services -70bps, Pharma -70bps, Insurance -60bps

COMMODS: Copper +2.3%, Coffee +2.2%, Sugar +2.2%, Silver +80bps, Gold +70bps…..Heating Oil -2.2%, Crude -2%, Corn -1.8%, Wheat -1.7%, Gasoline -1.7%

ECON: MBA Mortgage Applications -2.4%, PPI Final m/m +0.4% vs 0.3% est, ex-food/energy +0.3% vs 0.1% est, Final y/y -0.1% inline, ex-food/energy +1.2% vs 1.0% est, Empire Manf 6.01 vs -4.9 est, Industrial Production m/m -0.4% vs -0.2% est, Capacity Utilization 74.9% vs 75.2% est, Fed Rate Decision: unch’d


PIONEER NAT’L RESOURCES -2.5% 5.25mm share offering, buying $435mm in acreage from DEVON ENERGY +1.5%
RELYPSA +7% monthly scripts #s
AMSURG +2.6% to be acq’d by ENVISION -5.5% for $15bln enterprise value: note price moves on press spec, halted on official news
KORN/FERRY -2.2% q4 beat but q1 view below est
HANNON ARMSTRONG -4.3% 3.9mm share offering
QLOGIC +12.3% to be acq’d by CAVIUM -7.3% in $1.36bln cash/stock deal
BIOTIME -3.9% secondary of unspecified size
JABIL CIRCUIT -2.2% q3 beat, q4 view light, $400mm b/b
TONIX PHARMA -8.5% secondary of unspecified size


CISCO -1.1% d/g @ Goldman
BROADCOM -40bps seen active in m&a @ Oppenheimer
NETFLIX +20bps positive comments @ Pacific Crest
NXP SEMI -1.6% pushed @ SunTrust
ORACLE -1% positive comments @ UBS
VIACOM +2.4% Shari Redstone said to have had Paramount talks w/ Jack Ma
MICRON +85bps positive comments on lower DRAM spending @ Morgan Stanley
FIREEYE +4% reports has fielded multiple approaches
FINISAR +3.3% optical market shows strength
TWITTER +3.9% sees buyers post-LinkedIn/Microsoft

WHOLE FOODS -5% d/g to sell @ Northcoast
HARLEY DAVIDSON +90bps cautious post-channel checks @ Longbow
MCDONALDS -20bps gaining share per checks @ Longbow
RESTAURANT BRANDS INT’L -30bps / WENDYS -1.6% #s lowered @ Longbow
BEST BUY +60bps d/g @ Credit Suisse
MELCO CROWN +4.8% $2bln stake held by Crown Resorts to be spun off w/ int’l assets
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH +2.8% u/g from sell @ Deutsche
MATTRESS FIRM +95bps d/g @ KeyBanc
BOB EVANS -9.1% q4 earnings miss
NIKE +35bps reit buy @ Stifel
KROGER -15bps d/g @ Wolfe Research
PVH +3.2% sees improving dept stores in conf presentation

SYNCHRONY +20bps defended @ BMO, Jefferies
ANNALY CAPITAL +30bps d/g to sell @ Compass Point
CAPITAL ONE +35bps sees growth intact in conf presentation

CELGENE -1% add’l $3bln b/b
BRISTOL-MYERS -75bps / PFIZER -60 p/t’s increased @ Deutsche
SPARK THERAPEUTICS +3.7% 3.5mm share secondary prices
JUNO THERAPEUTICS +4.9% calls active, 10% s/i
EXACT SCIENCES -65bps big jump again on USPSTF posting to journal article
PERRIGO -9.2% gives up m&a spec gains from yest
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES -3.1% weak volumes cited @ Evercore ISI

US STEEL +8% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
NUCOR +1.9% sees q2 better than est

HI-CRUSH PARTNERS -5.9% 4.5mm secondary prices
DENBURY RESOURCES +5.2% both u/g’d from sell @ Stifel
TESORO +70bps d/g @ Credit Suisse

SCORPIO BULKERS -8.4% 20mm share offering