Northern Trust Capital Markets: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.27% (2088.9), D +0.14% (17829.7), N +0.30% (4413.4), CL1 -1.05% (48.85), Copper +1.43% (212.55), Gold -1.69% (1268.30) 10YrYld +0.02 (1.7076), DXY +0.47% (94.06), Vix +0.60% (18.48).

The S&P closed up 10bps from the European close, 25bps off late afternoon highs. Volumes off 8% to 6.2bln shares, 500mm below est. Dollars traded off 10% to $221bln, $25bln below est. About 60-40 up volume over down volume.

US markets drift higher but nothing too inspiring as the world awaits the Brexit vote this week and Yellen didn’t offer any significant new insights on her first of two days with Congress this week. Though oil itself closed lower energy shares traded well today as crude rebounded from lows, especially Brent which almost got back to flat. Other that a lot of defensives among the best sectors today w/ telecom, real estate, staples, and utilities all outperforming despite yields creeping a touch higher today to highest in 2 weeks on the 10yr helping give banks a nudge higher. Also of interest LEUCADIA -40bps announced their Jefferies subsidiary posted the biggest gain in its fixed income business in 8 qtrs, sometimes a leading indicator for other firms. Autos (CARMAX -4.9% on a miss; FIAT CHRYSLER (NTCM Sell) +25bps remains vulnerable compared to peers; auto-parts sector d/g out there today too), Media, Pharma, Shorts, Small Caps all laggards but only mildly in the red in aggregate. Dollar Index up 50bps, highs of the day, on a weaker yen. GBP also out at lows: 1.462. As mkts relatively calm Gold gives some back today down 175bps. LENNAR (NTCM Buy) -1.2% initially higher on results reinforcing our view of slow, steady progress in the housing market, note KB Homes up after-hrs on their #s; gov’t data on existing home sales tomm. Transports mixed w/ positive prasm update from UNITED CONTINENTAL +3.3% but trucker weak on a warning from WERNER -9.6%. Looks as if COVENANT TRANSPORTATION following suit tonight after the bell. FACEBOOK (NTCM Buy) +90bps w/ a nice move on good Instagram stats, part of our e-gaming basket too which continues to perform. On the flipside NETFLIX (NTCM Sell) -3% as competition concerns mount, no longer worthy of disruptor valuation in our view.

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +2.1%, Explorers +1.6%, Refiners +1.2%, Airlines +1.2%, Energy +1.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Steel -2.6%, Gold Miners -2.4%, Autos -1%, Rails -70bps, Media -60bps

COMMODS: Copper +1.4%, Cattle +1.1%, Cocoa +75bps, NatGas +50bps, Gasoline +35bps…..Corn -5.7%, Wheat -3.1%, Cotton -2.4%, Sugar -2.1%, Soybeans -1.9%

ECON: no data today


HP INC +3.9% sees q3 better than est in webcast update
ADOBE -3.8% q2 eps beat, revs inline, sees q3 revs at or below est
POST -80bps held talks to combine w/ CONAGRA unit but said stalled per press
NEWFIELD EXPLORATION +50bps boosts q2, fy production guidance
CYPRESS SEMI +60bps #3 holder boosts stake to #2
FEDEX -50bps q4 eps/revs small beat
LA-Z-BOY +35bps q4 beats
KB HOME +1.4% q2 orders beat
QEP RESOURCES -2.7% 20mm share offering as subsidiary buying $600mm of assets


FACEBOOK +90bps updates Instagram stats
WEBMD -1% positive comments @ Cowen
WAYFAIR +2.6% defended @ Cowen
ERICSSON +1.2% u/g from sell @ Goldman
CIRRUS LOGIC +3.7% init buy @ Canaccord
NETFLIX -3% cautious comments @ Nomura
IMPERVA +12.5% Elliott takes stake
SPRINT +7.8% Director Arora leaves Softbank parent co.

OPKO HEALTH +5.6% FDA approval
ABBOTT -5bps u/g @ Edward Jones
CATALENT +1% u/g @ Wells Fargo
IMPAX -11.5% $586mm acq of generic portfolio from TEVA -1.9% / ALLERGAN -1.6%

UNITED CONTINENTAL +3.4% updates passenger rev unit view
LENAR -1.1% q2 beats
PLANET FITNESS -6.4% secondary
CARMAX -4.9% q1 eps/revs miss
JM SMUCKER +60bps sell call @ Goldman
GNC -4.6% negative note @ Morgan Stanley

SIGNATURE BANK +1.6% u/g @ Raymond James
LEUCADIA NAT’L -35bps Jefferies unit posts first fixed income rise in 8 qtrs

WERNER -9.6% q2 warning
KNIGHT TRANSPORT -4.3% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
KIRBY -4.6% d/g @ Credit Suisse

ANADARKO +1.2% p/t raised @ BofA/Merrill
MARATHON OIL +4.2% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
HELMERICH & PAYNE +2.1% u/g @ KeyBanc