Northern Trust Capital Markets: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.31% (2078.0), D +0.53% (17733.1), N +0.33% (4424.2), CL1 -4.21% (45.99), Copper -1.84% (205.25), Gold +0.05% (1279.15) 10YrYld +0.01 (1.5788), DXY +0.01% (94.63), Vix -3.82% (19.37).

The S&P closed up 70bps from the European close (twice that from lows of the day) to go out at session highs. Volumes up 5.9% to 7.3bln shares, about 8% above avg. Dollars traded up 9% to $267bln, 9% above avg. Despite the rally, down volume still edged up volume 55-45 on the morning flush.

Tale of two halves today (really one bad hour and a half in the US, then steadily higher) with the morning seeing some notable downside moves with central banks in the spotlight. Stocks led all the way back and then some on strength in the pound as Brexit odds drop, avoiding what would have been a 6th straight down day for the S&P. Rates come back to close slightly up and financials among the best performers for the last 5hrs of the day though still underperformed on the day. Dollar Index gave up all gains to close flat while gold didn’t stop there and closed lower the better part of 1% for only its 2nd down day in 2 weeks. Despite the comeback yield plays, defensive sectors still the better performers today. Most-shorted remained just about the most pressured segment all day closing -50bps on the day. No recovery for crude though: down 6 days in a row and energy stocks at the bottom of the table today. Small-caps also unable to quite make it into positive territory. Quarterly expiration in play tomorrow.

OUTPERFORMERS: Managed Healthcare +1.1%, Chemicals +1%, Packaged Foods +1%, Integrated Oil +85bps, Media +85bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2.3%, Metals/Mining -2.2%, Drillers -2.1%, Explorers -2.1%, Oil Services -1.9%

COMMODS: OJ +2.3%, Cotton +2.1%, Coffee +1%, Lean Hogs +80bps……Crude -4.1%, Heating Oil -3.8%, Cocoa -2.9%, Gasoline -2.3%, Copper -1.9%, Gold -1%

ECON: Initial Jobless Claims 277k vs 270k est, Philly Fed 4.7 vs 1.0 est, CPI m/m +0.2% vs 0.3% est, y/y +1% vs 1.1% est, NAHB Housing Mkt Index 60 vs 59 est

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

SMITH & WESSON +6% q4 beat, outlook better than est
ORACLE +2.1% q4 eps miss but revs beat
INFOBLOX cutting 12% of jobs
FINISAR +8.7% q1 beat, q4 seen above est
STANLEY FURNITURE hires financial advisor
ERICSSON said to face corruption probe per Swedish press
ELIZABETH ARDEN +49.8% to be acq’d by REVLON +15bps in $870mm deal
MGM RESORTS +4.2% boosts profit growth forecast at investor day

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
ASML +1.5% $3.1bln Taiwan acq
QLOGIC +9.3% to be acq’d by CAVIUM -17.5% in $1.36bln cash/stock deal
JABIL CIRCUIT +1.9% q3 beat, q4 view light, $400mm b/b
MOBILEYE +2.8% catalysts seen @ RBC
AMAZON +45bps positive int’l view @ RBC, p/t raised @ Pacific Crest
NVIDIA +40bps p/t raised @ Canaccord
VIACOM +6.8% ceo/board said to be losing Redstone’s trust per press
CTRIP.COM +1.5% q1 revs beat, loss less than est
VMARE -60bps d/g @ CLSA
AMD +7.4% u/g @ Canaccord
APPLE +45bps p/t cut @ JPMorgan
YAHOO +20bps u/g @ Citi

HEALTHCARE
SHIRE +50bps p/t lowered @ Leerink
RELYPSA +3.1% monthly scripts #s
AMSURG +1.2% to be acq’d by ENVISION -6.2% for $15bln enterprise value

CONSUMER
KROGER -70bps q1 beat, sees fy17 at low end to mid of range
WHOLE FOODS MARKETS -30bps positive comments @ Wedbush
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH -2.6% u/g @ Stephens
NU SKIN +10.4% Chinese investment
RITEAID -15bps q1 below est
CAL-MINE +2.7% u/g @ BB&T
FIAT CHRYSLER unch’d: d/g to sell @ Citi
AMERICAN AIRLINES -4.4% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
NIKE -1.6% seen difficult raising prices @ OTR Research
UNDER ARMOUR -3.6% cautious mention @ OTR Research
MACYS +1.3% positive comments @ Cleveland Research

CAPITAL GOODS
EMBRAER +4.2% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
UNITED RENTALS -4.1% concerns on industry data trends

FINANCIALS
WISDOMTREE +2.2% seen more likely as m&a tgt @ Jefferies
CHUBB +85bps d/g @ Atlantic Equities
BANCO BILBAO +3.7% u/g @ JPMorgan

MATERIALS
US STEEL +1.3% sector #s raised @ Credit Suisse

SERVICES
KORN/FERRY -19.1% q4 beat but q1 view below est

ENERGY
ANTERO MIDSTREAM +2.7% u/g @ Stifel
INTEROIL -3.2% d/g @ Raymond James
BP +2.8% u/g @ Citi
DOMINION +30bps d/g @ JPMorgan
XCEL ENERGY +1.2% u/g @ JPMorgan
PIONEER NAT’L RESOURCES -6.1% 5.25mm share offering, buying $435mm in acreage from DEVON ENERGY -85bps