Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.09% (1923.7), D +0.32% (16398.6), N +0.30% (4283.5), CL1 -6.18% (31.11), Copper -2.42% (197.30), Gold -0.74% (1095.82) 10YrYld +0.06 (2.1719), DXY +0.31% (98.85), Vix -9.85% (24.36).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close rallying to positive territory over the last 45min. Volumes about flat with Friday at just under 9bln shares, above 7.3bln avg. Dollars traded off about 3% to $334bln, 20% above avg. Despite the late rally down volume still exceeded up volume close to 60-40.

Volatile session, Eminis hit 1892 just after lunch before rallying over 1.5% in the last hour. S&P +10bps vs Most Short -1.7%. Overall volumes inline with Friday, 23% above 20d ave. DXY +30bps. Rates seeing a little relief, 10yr 2.1719; Banks remain under pressure; Ricardo moves to UW in this week’s Q Rankings, big couple of weeks ahead now; JP MORGAN -15bps. Oil and Copper getting crushed and taking lead proxy FREEPORT -20% with it; short sellers pouncing on the break of $5, Ichan had a shocker here! ARCH COAL files for bankruptcy. XLE -2.1%, XME -6%. No major earnings this morning and interesting news flow remains light; actually quite happy about ALCOA -1% reporting tonight. Department stores outperforming on sale/split reports but nothing official; MACY’S +8%, KOHLS +5%. That’s about it on the potential positives. APPLE +1.6% sees a couple of upgrades, supply chain mixed; ARM +2.1%, SKYWORKS -1.3%. BAXALTA -2.3% and SHIRE -9% deal confirmed, $32bn cash and stock, works to roughly $45.57. Biotech ETF (IBB) testing Sept low as CELGENE -5.5% issues disappointing guide at JPM conference; QIAGEN -9.5% also warned last night. Detroit Motor Show hosting press conferences today and tomorrow; FIAT +1.5% continues to pursue partners, GM +2.4% sees upgrade from house broker. Been a better day to put out a downgrade; MEAD JOHNSON -3.5%, WW GRIANGER -3%, SOUTHWEST ENERGY -6%, LIBERTY GLOBAL -7%, UNDER ARMOUR -7%.

OUTPERFORMERS: Autos +1.7%, Retail +1.4%, Tech Hardware +1.1%, Staple +1%, Homebuilders +90bps

UNDERPERFORMER: Materials -6%, Oil Drillers -4.7%, Gold Miners -4.1%, Solar +3.6%, Biotech -3.5%

COMMODS: Gold -20bps, Silver -50bps, Gasoline -1.2%, Ally -1.8%, Copper -2.5%, Nat Gas -3.2%, Cocoa -4.2%, WTI -5.5%

ECO: Labor Market Conditions Index 2.9, est +0.4.


ALCOA +1.8% q4 eps beats, revs light
LULULEMON +6% raises q4 guidance
APOLLO EDUCATION +23% on reports in talk w Apollo Group (p/e)
STEVE MADDEN -3.4% prelim sales miss


APPLE +1.6% u/g @ Normura & @ Mizuho, defended @ Bernstein, p/t lowered @ Oppenheimer & @ Deutsche
CYPRESS SEMI -25bps defended @ Oppenheimer
WEBMD -2.5% d/g @ SunTrust
LIBERTY GLOBAL -7% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
DISNEY +70bps positive comments @ JPMorgan
MELLANOX +6.2% u/g @ Credit Suisse
MAXIM +2.3% renewed deal interest seen if co. lowers tgt range per note @ Sterne Agee CRT
AKAMAI -5.5% p/t cut @ Pacific Crest

HANESBRANDS +5.1% u/g @ Nomura
WYNDHAM +75bps u/g @ Deutsche
BOSTON BEER -3.5% d/g @ Normura
CHILDRENS PLACE +4% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
UNDER ARMOUR -6.7% / VF CORP -3% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
SOUTHWEST AIR -40bps u/g @ Morgan Stanley
KOHL’S +4.6% considering breakup, going private per press
MACY’S +8.2% pushed by Starboard to do real estate deals
GENERAL MOTORS +2.4% u/g @ Credit Suisse
DECKERS OUTDOOR -30bps positive comments in Barron’s

AFFYMETRIX +51.6% to be acq’d by THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC +55bps for $1.3bln
MEAD JOHNSON -3.5% d/g @ JPMorgan
QIAGEN -9.5% #s dissapoint
BAXALTA -2.3% deal w/ SHIRE -8.9% finally official
ARIAD +1.9% terminates shareholder rights plan
MEDTRONIC -1.1% $5bln b/b
CELGENE -5.5% q4 prelim #s light, names new CEO

JANUS CAPITAL +80bps d/g @ Goldman
BNY MELLON +75bps u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
OAKTREE CAPITAL -2.6% removed from conviction buy @ Goldman
VIRTU FINANCIAL +2.1%, NASDAQ +2.6% u/g @ Goldman
WISDOMTREE -7.9% d/g @ Goldman
DISCOVER +1% u/g @ Evercore ISI
MARSH & MCLENNAN -1.5% d/g @ Credit Suisse
M&T BANK -95bps d/g @ Goldman
CITIZENS FINANCIALS +35bps , KEYCORP +15bps u/g @ Goldman
AMERIPRISE +75bps u/g @ Credit Suisse
XL GROUP -1% d/g @ Credit Suisse

REGAL BELOIT +1.1% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
GRAINGER -2.9% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
GENERAL DYNAMICS +85bps u/g @ Cowen

APOLLO EDUCATION -3.2% exploring alternatives, earnings/enrollments decline

AIR PRODUCTS +40bps u/g @ KeyBanc
ALOCOA -90bps $1.5bln contract w/ GE Aviation
CELANESE +20bps u/g @ SunTrust
OWENS CORNING -30bps u/g @ RBC
FREEPORT-MCMORAN -20.3% copper continues decline

TIDEWATER -11%, HONRBECK OFFSHORE -7.1% , NOBLE -6%, ATWOOD OCEANICS -2.2% all d/g @ Cowen

have a good evening.