Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -2.37% (1943.1), D -2.32% (16514.1), N -3.11% (4305.7), CL1 -2.12% (33.25), Copper -3.09% (202.35), Gold +1.45% (1109.53) 10YrYld -0.02 (2.1473), DXY -0.97% (98.21), Vix +20.74% (24.86).

The S&P closed down 1.4% from the European close bouncing along the lows of the day for the last two and a half hours of the day. Volumes up 20% over yesterday to 10bln shares vs 7bln avg. Dollars traded up 18% to $378bln, more than $100bln > average. Biggest flush day in this move with just about 90% of volume to the downside today.

Markets lower across the board, China the lead catalyst but plenty of others. Eminis -2.7% vs Most Short -3.4%. China lasted 29 mins last night so big focus will be on reaction tonight, reports suggest PBOC advisors calling for steeper Yuan depreciation. US listed proxies; FXI -4%, ASHR -6%, BABA -6%, BIDU -6%. Please see “aviate asia best ideas” for Dougies thoughts. DXY -1%, back below 50dma, testing short term uptrend; EUR 1.0938, JPY 117.57. Banks -3.3%, earnings kick off next Friday; GOLDMAN (Technical Sell) -3% new 52 week low. Gold becoming safe haven in the short term, RR suggesting 200dma ($1138) as short term target. Oil rally wasn’t overly convincing, Copper break $200 for 1st time in 7 years. GDX +4.4% / XLE -2.4% / XME -3.6%. EXXON -1.6% holding up pretty well all things considering. FREEPORT -9%; in the S&P, 80 co’s over multiple sectors hit 52 week lows. On Earnings/updates; SIGNET +4.7%, CONSTELLATION BRANDS +4.5%, WALGREENS +2%, MACY’S +2%, FINISH LINE -10%, KB HOMES -15%. Some early signs market is looking for bottom in Retail; MACY’S up despite yet another warning; SIGNET guiding comps to the upper end; we continue to Buy WALMART +2.3%, +6% this week, earnings 2/18. APPLE -4.2% remains for sale, testing $98, we see potential for further 20-30% downside, earnings not till 26th but look out for BEST BUY +1% comps next Thursday. SOX now given back last quarter’s gains, heading back to 600; QUALCOMM (Sell) -5%, SUNEDISON -40% (placing). tbh a lot of charts much the same! Biotech (IBB) -4.2%, Industrials (XLI) -2.7%. TRAN Index -3.1% continues to fall off a cliff, Airlines trade terrible despite Oil and upgrade; Logistics plays making on 52 week lows as AMAZON -4% continues to threaten. BAXALTA +3% / SHIRE -4.2% deal could come Monday (Reuters). No earnings tomorrow, NFP the main focus. ALCOA -4% Monday after the close.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +4.4%, Refiners -30bps, Retail -40bps, Utils -70bps, Media -90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Solar -9.2%, Homebuilders -4.2%, Inv Banks -4.2%, Biotech -4.2%, Autos -4%

COMMODS: Nat Gas +4.6%, Silver +2.5%, Gold +1.5%, Ally -80bps, WTI -1.9%, Copper -3.1%, OJ -4%

ECO: Challenger Jobs -27%, prev -13.9%. Initial Jobless 277k, est 275k


CIRRUS LOGIC -9% q3 revs seen below est
QORVO halted – sees q3 eps/revs below est
THE CONTAINER STORE -12.3% q3 loss vs est for profit, cuts view
URBAN OUTFITTERS +1.3% holiday comps -2%
FIVE BELOW +80bps boots forecast on holiday results
HELEN OF TROY +3.4% q3 beats
GAP STORES -5.8% Dec comps down more than est
BARRACUDA -11.3% q3 eps/revs small miss, subscriber growth disappoints, billings down y/y
BED BATH & BEYOND q3 at high end of reduced/preannounced range, neg sss, sees q4 below est


MICROCHIP -5.1% said to be reconsidering ATMEL deal
HP INC -4.6% d/g @ Wells Fargo
THOMSON REUTERS -4.7% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
YAHOO -6.2% planning 10% layoffs
FITBIT -6.1% p/t lowered @ Leerink
BROADCOM -1.6% d/g @ Bernstein
FACEBOOK -4.9% / GOOGLE -2.4% / LINKEDIN -4% p/t’s raised @ Cantor
APPLE -4.2% p/t cut @ RBC, iPhone est cut @ UBS

MACY’S +2.1% poor q4 read, layoffs, store closings but engages firm to eval real estate options
JC PENNEY +3.7% Nov/Dec comps +3.9%, reaffirms
CHIPOTLE -2.5% p/t slashed @ SunTrust
KB HOME -14.8% q4 light, q1 guidance light
SOUTHWEST -2.1% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
NORDSTROM unch’d d/g @ Morgan Stanle
CHILDRENS PLACE +6.7% q3 eps inline, revs/comps miss, $250mm b/b, raises q4 guidance
FINISH LINE -10.1% q4 sales, eps miss, CEO out
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE +1.9% q1 beats, r/x strong over weaker retail
SIGNET +4.7% boosts low end of forecast on holiday #s
L BRANDS +2% Dec comps beat est
FORD -3.1% restating earnings, boosts profit forecast on pension accounting
CONSTELLATION BRANDS +4.5% q3 beats, raises fy view
ZUMIEZ +11.5% boosts q4 forecast

GREENBRIER -11.5% q1 beats but conf call comments hit shares
SUNEDISON -39.4% issuing new shares

STRYKER -2.6% d/g @ Northland
RELYPSA -13.5% negative report @ Favus Research
BAXALTA +3% press reports of possible Shire deal next week

THOMSON REUTERS -4.7% d/g BofA/Merrill
CAPITAL ONE -5.1% d/g @ Deutsche
AIG -2.4% presentation set for later this month on driving shareholder value
STATE STREET -4.5% u/g @ JPMorgan
COMERICA -2% u/g @ Baird

CH ROBINSON -10bps u/g @ RBC, ubs
SWIFT -3.4% / EXPEDITORS -2.3% / RYDER -3.8% d/g @ RBC

Have a good evening.