Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.53% (2012.7), D -1.58% (17148.9), N -2.08% (4497.9), CL1 -0.38% (36.90), Copper -2.53% (208.10), Gold +1.19% (1074.01) 10YrYld -0.03 (2.2428), DXY +0.16% (98.83), Vix +13.67% (20.70).

The S&P closed up 1% from the European close with those gains coming in the last half hour of the session. Volumes up substantially now we’re through the holidays at 8.4bln shares, close to 20% above December’s average. Dollars traded $360bln, $90bln above avg. About 3/4 of volume today printing to the downside.

After a frustrating 2015, nothing coming easy to start 2016. Double whammy of China woes and Middle East tensions roiling markets to start the year. Also continued weak economic data in the US post-liftoff not supportive for stocks at the moment. After China closed on circuit breakers -7%, FXI closed in the US -3.2% for the day about 1.2% off late moring lows. ASHR off 8.5% at the US close inclusive of a 1.5% move off the days lows in the last half hour. Crude after spiking on Iran/Saudi tensions actually closed down 30bps on the day falling more than 5% from the day’s highs to lod in an hour and a half on record Cushing inventories per latest data. Gold up almost 2.5% seeing the safety bid outweighing deflationary risks for today at least; dollar pretty quiet up 15bps on DXY while emerging market currencies weak and EEM -2.7% looking to challenge August and December lows. Noteworthy the 2/10yr curve making lows for the move not seen at these levels in 11 months: financial stocks among the weakest today. Profit taking in full effect with the change in calendar perhaps moving focus from tax loss selling: FANG making new lows for the move vs the S&P since peaking on December 8th. Rotation evident too as SHUT vs TIME making highs.

OUTPERFORMERS: Coal +8.4%, Gold Miners +3.1%, Dept Stores +2.5%, Drillers +2%, Oil Services +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Homebuilders -4.6%, Chemicals -3.9%, Airlines -3.8%, Metals/Mining -3.3%, Social Media -2.9%

COMMODS: Gasoline +1.6%, Nickel +1.4%, Gold +1.3%, Heating Oil +90bps, OJ +75bps…..Cocoa -2.7%, Copper -2.5%, Wheat -2.5%, NatGas -2.3%, Coffee -2.2%

ECON: Construction Spending m/m -0.4% vs +0.6% est, ISM Manufacturing 48.2 vs 49 est, ISM Prices Paid 33.5 vs 35.5 est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
NETFLIX -3.9% d/g @ Baird
PANDORA -9.7% negative Barron’s mention
3D SYSTEMS +13.1% over comes early weakness on neg Barron’s mention on new printer launch ahead of CES conf
APPLE +10bps positive holiday results seen @ FBR
AMAZON -5.8% d/g @ Monness Crespi
ATLASSIAN -8.9% little vocal sellside support as brokers init ratings post-ipo
PAYPAL -4% d/g to sell @ Monness Crespi
DREAMWORKS -6.9% d/g @ B. Riley
MICROCHIP said to prepare binding bid for ATMEL per press

CONSUMER
STRUM RUGER +3% / SMITH WESSON +5.9% Obama administration prepares executive action on gun control
TESLA -6.9% deliveries at low end of range, investigating car fire during charging
GENERAL MOTORS -2.1% leading $1bln fundraising round in Lyft w/ $500mm investment
FINISH LINE +3.2% p/t lowered @ Sterne Agee
MCDONALDS -50bps u/g @ Nomura
ULTA BEAUTY -1.7% p/t raised @ KeyBanc
GAMESTOP +1% d/g @ Sterne Agee
WHITEWAVE -25bps u/g @ Goldman, named a top pick @ SunTrust
CHIPOTLE -6.5% d/g @ Oppenheimer
CARTER’S +4.7% u/g @ Oppenheimer
VF CORP -2.2% d/g @ B. Riley
COLGATE-PALMOIVE -2.9% d/g @ RBC
FOSSIL -6.1% d/g @ Jefferies
DR HORTON -5.1% responds to weak construction #s
LULULEMON +6.5% u/g @ Jefferies @ Wells Fargo

HEALTHCARE
BAXALTA +5.5% fresh reports of advanced talks with SHIRE -3.3%
BECKTON DICKINSON -4% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +25bps u/g @ Morgan Stanley
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES -20bps a 2016 top pick @ JPMorgan
ABBOTT -4.4% d/g @ Morgan Stanley

CAPITAL GOODS
ALLISON TRANSMISSION -1.5% d/g @ Baird
DELPHI -2% reinstated conviction buy @ Goldman
LOCKHEED MARTIN -1.8% d/g off conviction buy @ Goldman
JOY GLOBAL -50bps d/g to sell @ UBS
DEERE -25bps u/g @ UBS

ENERGY
ULTRA PETROLEUM +1.2% d/g @ Raymond James

FINANCIALS
KEYCORP -1.7% u/g @ Sandler O’Neill
VISA -2.4% wins Fidelity business w/ US BANCORP -2.8% from AMERICAN EXPRESS -2.8% /BANK OF AMERICA -2.4%
CARLYLE GROUP -40bps d/g with sector @ Credit Suisse