Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.94% (2043.9), D -1.02% (17425.0), N -1.26% (4593.3), CL1 +1.34% (37.09), Copper -0.58% (213.40), Gold -0.09% (1060.57) 10YrYld -0.02 (2.2694), DXY +0.38% (98.64), Vix +5.32% (18.21).

The S&P goes out squarely at the lows of the day trading in a 1% range on the day but never quite in positive territory. Volumes up about 10% from yesterday to 5.1bln shares still nearly 2bln below avg for the month. Dollars traded up closer to 20% to $192bln, 30% below avg. Volume a little better than 2:1 to the downside.

Oil a leading story today as it has been all year: early lows dragging down the market, a 4% rip from the lows dragging stocks to intraday highs before giving up most gains as stocks drift lower with the S&P losing its “up on the year” status. Iran talk of ramping their missile defense program in part contributing to the oil rally but last day positioning/squaring prob just as much a factor both up and down on a quieter day. US rig counts down 2 out today. Probably the worst singular economic number out post-liftoff today with Chicago PMI clocking in at a contraction indicating 42.9 vs a 50.0 est, lowest reading since early recovery days of summer 2009. Rates off today to under 2.27% on the 10 year, and, like stocks, down more than 1% from the close on lift-off day. Oil/resource names continue the yo-yo routine back up today as the best performers. Industrials, Most-Shorted, Healthcare down but outperforming a bit. Financials, Defensive Sectors, Yield Sectors, and esp Tech the laggards. Well, a lot of work for flat to down returns in the major averages it seemed as 2015 will be remembered for extreme positioning/pain trades, currency (Swiss Franc, Yuan, Real, Rand to name some), commodities for sure, high yield, of course the Fed’s first raise in 9 years, and how few things truly worked over the year… among other things on what is likely a long list for all market participants. Conversation starter at your New Year’s event: first year since 1984 the Dow, Oil, and Gold all down on the year. A happy, healthy, and wealthy one to you and yours!

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +1.7%, Coal +1.5%, Explorers +1%, Oil Services +85bps, Gold Miners +2bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Semis -1.6%, Tech Hardware -1.5%, Software -1.4%, Retail -1.3%, Food/Bev -1.2%

COMMODS: NatGas +5.4%, Gasoline +3%, Coffee +2.5%, Heating Oil +2%, Crude +1.3%…..Cotton -1.1%, Soybeans -70bps, Nickel, -60bps, Copper -55%, Cocoa -55bps

ECON: Initial Jobless Claims 287k vs 270k est, ISM Milwaukee 48.53 vs 48.5 est, Chicago PMI 42.9 vs 50.0 est