Aviate: US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.89% (2039.1), D +0.96% (17417.3), N +0.63% (4589.3), CL1 +1.03% (36.18), Copper -1.45% (210.90), Gold -0.52% (1072.65) 10YrYld +0.04 (2.2340), DXY -0.14% (98.21), Vix -9.68% (16.88).

Markets higher again today, ytd losers continue to lead the move. S&P +70bps from the Euro close. Overall volumes -8% DoD and 16% below 20d ave.  Most Short -90bps. DXY -10bps lower for 3rd straight session; GBP 1.4813 also keeps fading. Rates higher, 10yr 2.2287; Banks +60bps. Oil seeing a little relief ahead of API later. XLE +1.2% / USO +1%. Copper/Gold underperform. On Earnings; CONAGRA +1%, EXPRESS SCRIPTS -60bps, STEELCASE -23%. Leading the rally; JOY GLOBAL +7% (-71% ytd), WHOLE FOODS +5.5% (-31% ytd), CAT +5% (-25% ytd), UNITED RENTALS +4% (-29% ytd), BEST BUY +3.5% (-21% ytd)….I could go on. FOOT LOCKER (Buy) +4% trades well on upgrade and ahead of NIKE +1.6% earnings; FINISH LINE +10%. KROGER (Buy) +2.2% back at highs; JPM highlight Lower Oil / better margins. APPLE -10bps continues to Underperform, more cautious channel checks; QORVO -2%. TESLA -1.1%, Porsche looking to spend €1bn on Electric car plant; FORD +3% teaming up with GOOGLE +80bps on self-driving cars. CHIPOTLE -5% and now fallen over 30% since the E. Coli story broke, chart a disaster. Solar seeing some profit taking following Nevada subsidy cuts; SOLAR CITY -7%, SUNEDISON -21%. In M&A, Reuters reporting SHIRE +70bps / BAXALTA +5% deal v close; SYNGENTA +3% sounds much the same. Looking into tomorrow; PCE, Durable Goods, New Home Sales and Michigan Sentiment; no earnings. Reporting on the close; MICRON -4% another weak guide, NIKE +1% future orders +20%, est +13.6%.

 

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +5.3%, Materials +3.8%, Oil Services +2.9%, Railroads +2.3%, Retail +2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Solar -4.4%, Gold Miners -60bps, Airlines -30bps, Sox +20bps, Biotech +20bps

COMMODS: OJ +3.1%, WTI +1%, Ally -50bps, Gold -70bps, Nat Gas -1%, Copper -1.4%, Nickel -2.9%, Gasoline -2.9%

ECO: GDP QoQ 2.0%, est 1.9%. FHFA House Price Index +0.5%, est +0.5%. Existing Home Sales 4.76m, est 5.35m; MoM -10.5%, est -0.2%.