Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.50% (2041.9), D -1.43% (17495.8), N -1.42% (4598.1), CL1 -2.20% (34.74), Copper -1.40% (204.25), Gold -1.95% (1051.41) 10YrYld -0.07 (2.2252), DXY +1.31% (99.15), Vix +5.21% (18.79).

The S&P closed down 40bps from the European close firmly on the lows of the day. Volumes off 8% from yesterday to 7.9bln shares vs 7.2bln avg. Dollars traded off 10% to $300bln vs $278bln avg. About 85% of the volume printing to the downside.

Markets give back yesterday’s post Fed Short rally, going out on session lows. Eminis -1.7% vs Most Short -1.7%. DXY +1.3% back above 99; our USD basket makes new high for move. Rates lower, 10yr 2.22. JNK -1.1% /HYG -1.1%. Banks. Oil makes another new low while Gold/Copper back to their respective lows. XLE -2.5% / XME -2.8% / GDX -6%. Refiners Outperform; TESORO +1.1% top Technical pick. On Earnings/Cuts; FEDEX +2%, STEEL DYNAMICS +1.2%, PENTAIR -4.3%, ACCENTURE -5.3%, ORACLE -5.1%, POLARIS -11%, PIER 1 -20%, TEEKAY -60%. The week before Christmas is usually pretty dull but we’ve had at least 12 earnings Misses/Warnings, M&A blow ups, over 10% of S&P hitting 52 week lows, first rate rise in nearly a decade, huge FX swings, Oil/Gold/Copper at 6 year lows. All makes for a very interesting year ahead! ALCOA -1% kicks off another earnings 11/1. APPLE -2.1% reports on 1/26 and continues to underperform, now down on the year and set up into this print weak; will be TECHNICAL SHORT tomorrow on this close. QUALCOMM -1.1% cant rally on 2 upgrades, remains core Short. FEDEX +2% came out with decent number last night and reversing recent declines today, disruption in the space will remain an interesting theme in 2016. ACTIVISION -1% hits another new High intraday; eGaming/eSports theme. DELTA -2.1%, RR initiates Technical Buy, at today’s Investor Day suggested they will be paying less than $30 for fuel next year. Possible that could be this year! GE (Buy) -70bps, positive Investor meeting yesterday, tons of cash and we see this as a great stock to own next year. Looking into tomorrow; earnings expected from LENNAR -3.6%, top pick. Chunky expiry.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +1%, Utils +10bps, Real Estate -70bps, Telco -1%, Solar -1.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -6%, Oil Services -4.2%, Oil Drillers -3.8%, Railroads -3.1%, Materials -2.8%

COMMODS: Gasoline +2.4%, Soybeans +1.5%, Corn +1.2%, Copper -1.4%, WTI -1.7%, Nat Gas -2%, Gold -2.5%, Silver -4%

ECO: Philly Fed -5.9, est 1.0. Initial Jobless 271k, est 275k.


RED HAT +20bps q3 eps/billings beat


ORACLE -5.1% q2 eps beats, revs touch light, cloud not enough to get stock going
JABIL CIRCUIT -1.1% q1 eps beat, raises core ’16 eps guide
QUALCOMM -1.1% u/g @ JPMorgan
MICRON +1.8% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
AMERICAN MOVIL -1.5% u/g @ JPMorgan
PANDORA +13.5% favorable crb decision
3D SYSTEMS +5.8% u/g @ Stephens

SCHOLASTIC -10.8% q2 eps/revs miss, sees fy at low end of range
RITE AID -25bps q3 adj ebitda below est, revs small miss
GENERAL MILLS -3.3% q1 eps, revs miss
DELTA -2.1% sees q4 prasm -2%
SANDERSON FARMS +3% q4 eps/revs miss
O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE -1.3% u/g @ Citi
CARTER’S -50bps d/g @ Citi
AVON -1.5% $605mm p/e investment
POLARIS -10.8% warning

VALEANT -6% d/g @ Mizuho
MYLAN -2.6% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
CVS HEALTH -2.9% d/g @ Goldman
CARDINAL HEALTH -30bps u/g @ Goldman
QUINTILES +1.6% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
ASTRAZENECA -1.3% $4bln for 55% stake in Acerta Pharma
ELI LILLY -10bps added to focus list, BRISTOL-MYERS -2.1% removed @ Credit Suisse
HORIZON +70bps init buy @ Goldman

NAVISTAR -1.7% q4 beats but loses gains to new 52wk lows
PENTAIR -4.3% fy’16 guide below est
LENNOX -3.1% d/g @ Wells Fargo

ACCENTURE -5.3% q1 eps miss, revs slight revs beat, reaffirms

COMERICA -2.2% d/g to sell Goldman
INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE +25bps 5.67mm share secondary

LUMBER LIQUIDATORS -10.5% d/g to sell @ Goldman
STEEL DYNAMICS +1.2% warns on q4
APOGEE -1.7% q3 eps/revs miss, raises low end of fy range

FEDEX +2% q2 eps/revs beat, reaffirms

CONSOL +3.5% u/g @ Deutsche
HALLIBURTON -4.7% positive comments @ Oppenheimer

May the Force be with you…..