Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.23% (2052.2), D +0.47% (17574.8), N +0.45% (4643.0), CL1 -1.59% (36.57), Copper +0.00% (206.60), Gold -0.07% (1072.05) 10YrYld +0.02 (2.2323), DXY +0.61% (97.94), Vix -1.63% (19.29).

The S&P fell 30bps from the European close and nearly 1% from the highs of the day over the last hour but held in positive territory. Volume falling off 17% today to 6.7bln shares dipping below avg of 6.9bln. Dollars traded off 20% to $255bln, $11bln below avg. Up volume 1.4 to 1 over down volume.

Markets faded into the close, new lows Oil, big shorts outperforming but nothing really up on good news. Most Short +2%. DXY +60bps covers half of yesterday’s losses, EUR 1.0944. Rates up small, Banks +30bps; RR initiates Short on GOLDMAN +80bps. Oil posts 5th straight decline, currently on the lows $36.43; XLE +60bps. CHEVRON +2% cuts 2016 capital and exploratory budget 24%. Technip denied FMC TECH -2% merger talks. Copper/Gold flat. Materials outperform with Steel space particularly strong; US STEEL +12%, 38% short base sums up today. ALCOA +5%, FREEPORT +5%. EM continues to roll; another big move in Rand, EZA -6%, EWZ -4%. Airlines bouncing, IATA highlights upside from lower oil, SOUTHWEST +1.7% CEO sees fuel prices lower for longer; DELTA +4% back to all time high. CIENA -17% reported better Q4 but guidance and conference call taken badly; highlighted deceleration of core Telco industry CapEx and analyst expectations for growth rates too high for industry. Enough in the commentary to conclude structural risks for ERICSSON will only increase next year. FACEBOOK +80bps almost ready to launch “Facebook at Work” platform, poised to push into LINKEDIN’S +30bps core market, and will raise further questions over silly valuation; time to Short LNKD again. No major earnings expected tomorrow; Retail Sales at 8:30am.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +2.7%, Drillers +1.3%, Biotech +1.3%, Homebuilders +1.2%, Airlines +1.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Chems -1.8%, Utils -1.7%, Solar -1.1%, Real Estate -80bps, Gold Miners -40bps

COMMODS: Gasoline +3.6%, Corn +1.5%, Ally +30bps, Copper +10bps, Gold -50bps, WTI -1.2%, Nat Gas -2.2%, Sugar -3.6%

ECO: Initial Jobless 282k, est 270k.


ADOBE +4.9.% q4 beat, q1 revs guide inline
FINISAR +12.8% q2 beat
RESTORATION HARDWARE +6.8% q3 eps beat, revs/comps miss, raises low end of fy view
VINCE HLDGS -10.6% q3 beat but comps miss
JETBLUE -3.3% sees q4 prasm down 2-3% y/y


CTRIP.COM -45bps add’l $500mm investment from PRICELINE +90bps
CYBERARK +8.8% u/g @ JPMorgan
GOPRO +11.6% seen as possible Apple tgt @ JPMorgan
LAM RESEARCH +2.2% p/t raised @ Cowen
CIENA -16.9% q4 beat but q1 forecast dissapoints
TAIWAN SEMI -35bps Nov sales -12% y/y
PTC -40bps top software pick @ JPMorgan
ATLASSIAN +32.3% from ipo price
OMNIVISION -2.3% concerns over buyer group
GLOBAL PAYMENTS +2.6% said talks to acq HEARTLAND +8.9%

ATHENAHEALTH +1.7% sees fy15 eps at high end of range, revs at midpoint, fy16 range seen abov est
XOMA +1.1% settlement, amended license agreement w/ Pfizer
KITE PHARMA -1.2% prices secondary
PERRIGO +50bps u/g @ Argus

MENS WEARHOUSE -17.8% q3 inline w/ pre-announce but Jos A Bank sales down big
DOLLAR TREE -80bps cautious comments @ Morgan Stanley
FOOT LOCKER +95bps positive comments @ Canaccord
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE +2.6% added to focus list @ Citi
JC PENNEY +15bps u/g @ Nomura

FIRST SOLAR -7.7% multiple d/g’s on disappointing guidance update

FMC TECHNOLOGIES -1.9% Technip denies merger talks
CONOCOPHILLIPS +1.6% cuts spending 25%
TESORO -70bps d/g @ Deutsche -70bps

Have a good evening.