Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.70% (2077.1), D -0.66% (17730.5), N -0.48% (4693.6), CL1 -5.80% (37.65), Copper -1.64% (204.50), Gold -1.40% (1071.64) 10YrYld -0.04 (2.2341), DXY +0.36% (98.70), Vix +8.58% (16.08).

The S&P closed up from 50bps from the European close (the day’s lows), with most of that coming in the last hour after a successful test of the day’s worst levels. Volume off about 5% from Friday to 7.3bln shares, 500mm above avg. Dollars traded off 15% to 268bln, inline with avg. Just over 80% of volume printing to the downside.

Markets dragged lower by ongoing Oil weakness. Most Short -2.5%. DXY +40bps sees small bounce as Euro drifts back towards 1.08. Rates also lower, focus remains on FOMC 12/16, 10yr 2.234; Banks -1.3%. Opec decisions continue to press Oil lower, lowest close in 6 years; AMLP -7%/FRAK -6%. KINDER MORGAN -2.4%, ALCOA -3.2%, FREEPORT -8%, WILLIAMS -13%. Default risks growing across O&G world. Keep JNK & HYG -70bps on the radar. EEM -1.7% rolling over. Nat Gas also makes new lows as warm weather continues, Retailers set for another bad month (expected to be 17/63 in NYC this coming weekend). On Earnings; MARVELL -1.6%. GREEN MOUNTAIN +72% stock de jour as Jab Holdings paying $92/share to take co private; 12% Short base hurting. As press speculated this morning FTC has challenged OFFICE DEPOT -16% / STAPLES -14% merger. Ichan announced 12% holding in PEP BOYS +2.3% and proposed to Buy the rest of the co at $15.50 (closed $16.05). NEWELL RUBBERMAIN +7% said to be in talks with JARDEN +5% (DJ). Airlines continue to trade well on Oil capitulation; DELTA +4% flirting with all time highs, AAL +1.8% announce sales tomorrow. comps. T-MOBILE continues to see strong momentum in Q4, reaffirmed FY at Investor conference. FIREYE -4% new 52 week lows, -ve broker note, speaking tomorrow at Barc TMT conference in SF. NETFLIX -4% hit an all time high off the open but rolled on cautious channel check / sub data (Seeking Alpha). Euro afterhours; Vivendi increases Gameloft holding to 26.69%; Orange (ADR +1.8% from Euro close) said to be at early stages of acquiring Bouygues Telco/Media biz.

OUTPERFORMERS: Airlines +70bps, Telco +60bps, Utils +30bps, Staples +30bps, Defense +10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -14%, Explorers -5.3%, Oil Services -4.3%, Materials -4.3%, Gold Miners -4.3%

COMMODS: OJ +2.4%, Gold -1.1%, Silver -1.6%, Copper -1.6%, Ally -2%, Nickel -2.6%, Nat Gas -5.5%, WTI -6.5%

ECO: nothing of interest


GOPRO -2.7% p/t lowered @ JPMorgan
ARM HLDGS -2.5% d/g @ Northland
FITBIT +2.2% cautious comments in Barron’s
MARVEL -1.6% preannounces q3 revs/eps below est
ADOBE -3.2% positive comments @ Morgan Stanley
APPLE -60bps cautious note in iphone sales @ OTR Research

CHIPOTLE -1.7% scraps guidance in Fri night announcement on e coli fears affect
VAIL RESORTS +2.9% q1 loss narrower than est, revs beat
BIG LOTS +40bps d/g @ Piper
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL -20bps Nov trasm below est
TYSON FOODS -45bps d/g @ Stepehns
KEURIG GREEN MOUNTAIN +72% investor group to acq for $92/cash
PEP BOYS +2.4% Icahn reports 12% stake, to seek talks, offers to buy co.
KROGER +2.2% u/g @ Northcoast
WEIGHT WATCHERS -40bps street high p/t @ Craig-Hallum
WALMART +1.4% insider purchase
OFFICE DEPOT -15.8% / STAPLES -13.899% FTC challenges deal
NEWELL RUBBERMAID +7.4% said in talks to combine with JARDEN +3.7%

ALCOA -3.25 positive comments in Barron’s, Elliott seeks “constructive dialog”
NEWMONT -3.5% u/g @ Goldman

BLUEBIRD BIO -37.5% trial disappoints, d/g @ Morgan Stanley
ABBOTT +60bps u/g @ Jefferies

BB&T -65bps u/g @ Raymond James
AMERIPRISE -1.4% add’l $2.5bln b/b

CONOCO PHILLIPS -4.3% CEO sees crude recovery in 2016
NAT’L OILWELL VARCO -5.3% cutting Norwegian workforce
KINDER MORGAN -2.4% cautious comments in Barron’s


NORFOLK SOUTHERN -60bps u/g @ Barclays

This week’s Eco and Earnings highlights…..

TUE: AAL Sales, AutoZone, Conn’s, Costco, HD Supply, Home Depot IM, L3 Comms IM, Pep Boys, Smith & Wesson, Toll Brothers; BARC Tech, GS Fins, UBS Media conf. JOLTS Job Openings
WED: BARC Tech, GS Fins, UBS Media conf. Mortgage Apps
THU: Adobe, Ciena, JetBlue Sales, Restoration Hardware, Untied Tech IM, Yum Brands IM. NPD Data. Import Price Index
FRI: WW Grainger Sales. Retail Sales, PPI, Michigan Sentiment

Have a good evening.