Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +2.05% (2091.7), D +2.12% (17847.6), N +2.37% (4716.1), CL1 -2.31% (40.12), Copper +0.85% (207.85), Gold +2.33% (1086.95) 10YrYld -0.04 (2.2711), DXY +0.74% (98.34), Vix -18.22% (14.81).

The S&P closed up 80bps from the European close ending the day basically at the day’s highs. Volume off about 5% from yesterday to 7.6bln shares, about 10% above avg. Dollars traded off 6% to $311bln still more than 15% above avg. Two-thirds of volume printing to the upside.

Markets reverse all of yesterday’s declines tacking on a further 60bps to that, S&P back above 200dma after a 1 day dip below. Net, net just an 8bps move higher for the week but a 3% trading range. NFP 11k ahead of forecast. That and a positive revision of prev month’s data likely to be good enough for Dec lift off (back to highs of a 76% chance priced in). Draghi, in some damage control perhaps, gives the market a little bit more of what it wanted previously in remarks in New York, the Euro falling about 0.6% to 1.087. Banks bounce on rate outlook with XLF up 2.7%. Rates themselves here struggled to hold the early spike, though: 10yr 2.2711. Outside of monetary policy of course the other big macro story was OPEC which maintained production. Oil trades below $40 intraday and barely moves off of that all afternoon going out at $40.12, off 2.3%. KINDER MORGAN -12.7% to review div policy. Precious metals still strong, Gold +2.4% posts biggest rally in 9 weeks, shorts unwinding; NEWMONT +9.2%. Silver een stronger +3.3%, and Riccardo’s preference per the charts between the two. On Earnings; ULTA SALON +12.8%, HOVNANIAN +4.7%, FIVE BELOW +5.5%, ZUMIEZ +5.3% , AMBARELLA -1.6% (dragging GOPRO lower -4.9%), BARNES & NOBLE -16.7%. Another New High NVIDIA +4.1%, been big name for us this week, key name on our eGaming theme esp as virtual reality becomes the next driver; ACTIVISION +3.4%. APPLE +3.3% nice bounce off 50/100dma, heard some positive channel checks circulating; AVAGO +1.9% pushing on and supportive overall supply chain; SKYWORKS +5.4% and CIRRUS LOGIC +3.3% shaking off early weakness on a negative Samsung-related report out there. AMAZON up another 1% looking to disrupt logistic market further, buying thousands of truck trailers per Re/code. KROGER +1.6%, one our picks for a strengthening USD also adding to yesterday’s earnings gains, RR turns Technical Buyer with potential of $10-15 upside; stay long. Railroads remain weak inline with our view ; NORFOLK SOUTHERN -1.1% rejecting CP offer as we expected; another new low UNION PACIFIC -1.1% as street d/g’s starting to come through. Quiet week coming up, many sitting tight until FOMC on the 16th with the move seemingly a lock and attention turning to the outlook; Earnings expected from TOL, SWHC, LULU, CIEN, ADBE; Retail Sales, PPI.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +6.1%, Homebuilders +3.3%, Banks +3%, Consumer Services +2.8%, Div Financials +2.7%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -10.5%, Drillers -4.1%, Oil Services -2%, Explorers -1.2%, Railroads -1.1%

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +13%, Solar +7%, Semis +2.1%, Coal +2.8%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads-6.8%, Drillers -5.5%, Explorers -5.1%, Oil Services -3.9%, Refiners -3.5%

COMMODITIES: Silver +3.3%, Gold +2.4%, Coffee +1.7%, Wheat +1.2%, Corn +1.2%…..Crude -2.4%, Nickel -1.5%, Gasoline -0.9%, Aluminum -85bps, Sugar -65bps

ECON: Payrolls 211k vs 200k est, prior revised higher, unemployment rate unch’d at 5%


CHIPOTLE -5.5% sees q4 comps down 8-11%, sees q4 $2.45-2.85 vs $4.06 est, $300mm b/b


AMBARELLA -1.6% q3 eps/revs beat, q4 revs guide light
OMNIVISION -60bps q2 eps/revs beat, q3 revs midpoint just over est
QUALCOMM +1.8% init o/w @ Pacific Crest
CBS +1.4% positive comments from Barron’s
GOPRO -4.9% #s cut @ Piper, d/g @ Baird
LINKEDIN +85bps init buy @ Nomura
PAYPAL +4.1% positive comments @ Deutsche

EXPRESS SCRIPTS +2.3% unch’d: 60mm share b/b
COOPER COS -8.2% q4 eps, revs miss, q1 guide below est
TEVA +3.5% u/g @ Guggenheim
QUEST DIAGNOSTICS +3.6% boosts b/b by $500mm
VALEANT +1.8% press report a major short has covered
RELYPSA +30.6% report co. may see a bid, positive comments on possible price @ Stifel

FIVE BELOW +5.5% q3 eps/revs small beat, fy view inline
ULTA BEAUTY +12.8% q3 eps/revs/comps beat, q4 view inline, guides comps better
ZUMIEZ +5.3% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps miss, q4 view below est, $70mm b/b
GAP STORES 35bps Nov comps miss
TORO +4.5% d/g @ Longbow
CHIPOTLE -0.7% p/t cut @ Deutsche
DOLLAR TREE +4.3% u/g to top pick @ RBC
MACY’S +90bps d/g @ Goldman
BIG LOTS -6.3% q3 eps just misses, revs inline, comps inline, reaffirms fy view
HERTZ -2.4% reduces stake to 4.9% from 8.8%
MARRIOTT +3.3% u/g @ Canaccord
POLARIS -4.2% d/g @ Longbow
NUSKIN -1.7% investor day 2016 guide midpoint below est
GENESCO +10.3% q3 eps/revs/comps beat, fy comp guidance above est
AVON PRODUCTS +5.8% holder proposes restructuring
HARLEY DAVIDSON +1.4% lbo mkt talk
HOVNANIAN +4.7% q4 eps beats, revs miss
MATTEL +4.3% init buy @ Jefferies

UNION PACIFIC -1.1% / CSX -90bps / KANSAS CITY SO -90bps / GENESEE -5.6% all dg’d @ BofA/Merrill

NRG -18% CEO departs
KINDER MORGAN -12.7% dividend concerns