Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.07% (2102.6), D +0.95% (17888.4), N +1.11% (4716.2), CL1 +0.36% (41.80), Copper +1.24% (207.40), Gold +0.42% (1069.25) 10YrYld -0.06 (2.1466), DXY -0.35% (99.82), Vix -9.18% (14.67).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close ending the day essentially at session highs. Volumes off about 11% from yesterday to 6.8bln shares inline w/ avg. Dollars traded off 12% to $267bln just above avg of $262bln. More than 3/4 of volume printing to the upside.

Markets close on session highs (Eminis 2100), news flow light, macro mixed; laggards leading. Man ISM back into contraction for first time since Nov 2012 with ISM prices paid back to ytd lows; focus remains on this week’s employment data. DXY, 10yr (WIRP 70% from 75%); KRE +20bps outperformance stalling, seeing profit taking. Commods mixed; Copper seeing a little short covering, Oil drifting (OPEC meeting Friday). XME +1.8%, XLE +80bps. No major earnings today. Autos in focus as overall November Sales ahead, TOYOTA (ADR) +1.2% outperforms, BMW record Nov, VW -25%. JOHNSON CONTROLS -1.2% held Analyst meeting, raised FY Rev guide but EPS towards the lower end. SOX +1.4%, testing October highs, a lot of names speaking at CS conference in Arizona this week, NXP SEMI +70bps positive; RR turned Technical Buyer XILINX +1.1%, been on our M&A radar for some time, co speaking later; MARVELL +6%. We continues to see Buyers ACTIVISION +2.4%, makes another new high today, as does NVIDIA +3.3%; positive keep coming for our eGaming plays. AMAZON +2.2% testing highs as reports suggest co is clear winner from Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, not a huge surprise; supportive VISA +1.1%/MASTERCARD (unch) and FEDEX +1.2%/UPS +1.3%. New 52 week lows in JOY GLOBAL -13% and CUMMINS -8% following downgrades, awful charts. Looking into tomorrow; earnings remain light, focus on ADP and Beige Book.

OUTPERFORMERS: Managed HC +3.5%, Solar +3%, Gold Miners +2.9%, Homebuilders +1.9%, Materials +1.8%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers +5bps, Tech Hardware +10bps, Regional Banks +20bps, Retail +40bps, Oil Services +40bps

COMMODS: Sugar +3.7%, Gasoline +3.6%, Ally +1.6%, Copper +1.3%, Silver +30bps, Gold +20bps, WTI unch, Wheat -80bps

ECO: Man PMI 52.8, est 52.6. Construction Spending +1%, est +0.6%. ISM Man 48.6, est 50.5.

SHUTTERFLY CEO to step down in Feb
ASCENA RETAIL +2% q1 eps beat, revs inline
BOB EVANS -4.2% q2 eps small beat, revs miss
GUIDEWIRE +1.9% q1 eps/revs beat, mid-point of q2 revs guide better than est
FACEBOOK Zuckerberg to gift 99% of shares over lifetime


ALPHABET +2.7% positive comments @ RBC
CSC unch’d: positive comments @ Wells Fargo, d/g @ SunTrust
AMBARELLA -4.9% p/t lowered @ Deutsche
RACKSPACE +2.1% u/g @ RBC
ALCATEL-LUCENT +2.3% u/g @ Credit Suisse
ERICSSON -1.7% d/g @ Credit Suisse
INFOBLOX +22% q1 beats, outlook better than est
DISNEY +1.7% reit o/p @ FBR
AMAZON +2.2% new closing high
SALESFORCE.COM +1.7% new closing high

LULULEMON +2.6% margins seen expanding @ Credit Suisse
FIAT CHRYSLER -10bps Nov US sales +12% vs 12.1% est
FORD +1.6% Nov US +9.2% vs 12.1% est
GENERAL MOTORS +20bps Nov US +10.4% vs 12.6% est
HONDA +2% Nov US +3% vs 5.5% est
TOYOTA +1.2% Nov US +12.4% vs 11.8% est
COCA-COLA +60bps positive comments @ Bernstein
CAMPBELL SOUP +1.1% u/g @ Argus
LAS VEGAS SANDS +1.7% / WYNN +6.4% / MELCO CROWN +60bps gaming bureau says Macau Nov revs down 32%
MATTRESS FIRM +7% to acq Sleepy’s for $780mm, prelim q3 results beat est
STARBUCKS unch’d: positive comments @ Piper; e-coli concerns surface
CONN’S -6% u/g @ Stifel
YUM! BRANDS +2.7% u/g @ Cowen

JOHNSON CONTROLS -1.2% gives 2016 guidance at investor day
CUMMINS -7.9% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
JOY GLOBAL -13.2% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
TERRAFORM POWER +32.6% u/g @ Oppenheimer, d/g @ Avondale, hldr Appaloosa sends letter

VERTEX +80bps init buy @ Stifel
HENRY SCHEIN +1.7% $400mm increase to b/b
UNITEDHEALTH +3.2% gives 2016 guidance
ASTRAZENECA +2.1% u/g @ Morgan Stanley

PROGRESSIVE +1.1% d/g @ Citi
CBOE HLDGS -2.5% d/g @ Raymond James

NEWMONT MINING -10bps d/g @ Citi
MONSANTO +2.3% u/g @ Atlantic Equities

CONCHO RESOURCES +2.3% u/g to strong buy @ Raymond James
PIONEER NATURAL +3.1% u/g to strong buy @ Raymond James

XEROX +1.3% positive comments @ Piper
This week’s Earnings and Eco highlights…..

WED: American Eagle, PVH; Citi Basic Materials, CSFB TMT/Industrials. ADP Employment, Beige Book.
THU: Amberella, Dollar General, Express, Kroger, Pure Storage; CSFB TMT/Industrials, GE Investor Meeting. ECB, Comp/Service PMI, ISM Non-Man, Factory Orders, Durable Goods.
FRI: Fastenal Sales; Nu Skin Investor Day. Nonfarm Payrolls.

Have a good evening.