Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.46% (2080.4), D -0.44% (17719.9), N -0.34% (4664.5), CL1 -0.07% (41.68), Copper -0.53% (204.60), Gold -0.01% (1064.67) 10YrYld -0.01 (2.2060), DXY +0.21% (100.24), Vix +6.68% (16.13).

The S&P closed down 20bps from the European close ending the day at session lows, selling off from unch’d on the day over the last 2hrs. Volumes 7.5bln above the avg for the month of 6.8bln. Dollars traded $293bln, about $30bln above avg. A little better than 60% of volumes to the downside for the day.

Not a lot in the way of news flow in the US today as month-end trading (about flat for the month to boot) seemed to be more of a structural than fundamental nature: most-shorted outperforming for the 6th time in 8 sessions. On a big macro week globally, we’ll see if headlines/economic numbers/reactions serve up any opportunities in specifc names. Please see today’s US daily for a high level review of top of mind ideas. {http://us.aviatelive.com/best-us-stock-ideas-today-402/} Given we are officially into the holiday season, any short-term sales reports, analyst conclusions, and corporate pr being carefully parsed. Seems to be a consensus forming though that bricks are not off to sizzling start esp vs clicks. Helps to reaffirm our positive view in VISA -1% / MASTERCARD -75bps, agonistic plays on vendor, platform, or place of transaction. Refiners had a bit of a wobble today on reports the EPA is boosting the biofuel mandate. Remains a positive, though, for Riccardo with TSO -1.75% VLO -1.5% his picks there. Industrials, Healthcare, Transports, most Retail, and Transports also weak. On the flip side a theme of ours, e-gaming, appears to be gaining some momentum. ATVI +1.2% to new highs, same with NVDA +1%, and LOGI +2.3%, maker of the perfect stocking stuffer for the gamer on your list, may be finding its way into some portfolios as well. DISNEY, Friday’s half-day stock of the day on concerns for ESPN subs from their mid-week filing, continued lower again off 1.4%, and we’d continue to take profits on this latest data from the co. On the macro front the environment remains stressed amid reports Morgan Stanley may be cutting as much as 25% of its fixed income staff and confirmed news that Trafigura is winding down its flagship commodity hedge fund, Galena Metals Fund. In currencies the IMF does decide to add the Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies with a 10.92% weighting a touch more than estimates, crude sells off to flat once those headlines out. FXI +1.4% and ASHR +2.3% both close at highs. Despite the China headlines DXY makes a new high for the move settling in at 100.22, just fractionally away from mid-March’s 12 year highs. Rates and the yield curve both continued recent moves lower though with the Fed this month and probably more importantly their outlook, we see these turning around.

OUTPERFORMERS: Coal +4.8%, Goldminers +3.2%, Drillers +1.7%, Oil Services +1.4%, Semis +1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Dept Stores -2.2%, Pharma -1.6%, Airlines -1.5%, Healthcare -1.3%, Homebuilders -1.3%

COMMODS: Corn +1.4%, Soybeans +90bps, Cocoa +90bps, Gold +80bps, NatGas +70bps…..Nickel -4.6%, Coffee -3.2%, Aluminum -2.9%, Gasoline -2.3%, Cotton -2%

ECON: ISM Milwaukee 45.34 s 48 est, Chicago PMI 48.7 vs 54 est, Pending Home Sales m/m +0.2% vs 1.0% est, y/y +2.5% vs 4.3% est


INFOBLOX +19% q2 view beats, $100mm b/b
MATTRESS FIRM +10.4% buying Sleepy’s for $780mm
THOR INDUSTRIES +3.6% q1 beats


NXP SEMI +5.8% new CFO
FITBIT +3% u/g @ Barclays
ACTIVISION +1.2% remains top pick @ Cowen
MICROSOFT +80bps u/g to strong buy @ Raymond James
SINA +2.1% d/g @ Goldman
CITRIX -25bps Elliott boots stake
TRIBUNE +4.5% press report had been approached by Apollo
AMBARELLA +7.4% cautious comments @ Morgan Stanley, positive comments @ Stifel

AMERICAN EAGLE -5.1% d/g @ Oppenheimer
COTY -4% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
MARRIOTT -80bps d/g @ Evercore ISI
PHILLIP MORRIS unch’d u/g @ Nomura
AB INBEV -50bps to divest Grolsch, Peroni brands
LA QUINTA +50bps Eminence Capital reports 7.4% stake making them #2 holder
UNDER ARMOUR -3.9% p/t, #s lowered @ Piper Jaffray
ULTA BEAUTY -2.3% p/t raised @ JPMorgan
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL -9.4% d/g @ Raymond James
DECKERS OUTDOOR -2.3% p/t lowered @ Piper Jaffray
LULULEMON -8.9% d/g @ FBR
BESTBUY +1% positive comments @ KeyBanc
BRUNSWICK -5% rated strong sell @ Off Wall Street

PACCAR +25bps d/g @ RBC
RAYTHEON -2.2% / LOCKHEED MARTIN -3% d/g’d @ Barclays
DEERE +60bps layoffs at Illinois plant

SAREPTA -1.7% positive comments Barron’s follow-up
HOLOGIC +70bps positive comments in Barron’s citing holder
HUMANA -15bps Glenview boosts stake, remains #6 holder
TEVA -85bps $6.75bln offering of of ads’s, mando converts

SYNCHRONY +1.5% u/g @ BMO
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK +1.5% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
MOELIS +30bps init buy @ Sandler O’Neill

FEDEX -3.4% postive comments in Barron’s, d/g @ Wolfe

ENSCO +2.3%, DRIL-QUIP +60bps among a # of names u/g’d in oil services call @ Guggenheim

BEACON ROOFING -90bps d/g @ Stephens

ITC HLDGS +9.3% said to explore sale per press