Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.06% (2090.1), D -0.08% (17798.5), N +0.16% (4680.5), CL1 -3.00% (41.74), Copper +0.73% (206.40), Gold -1.26% (1058.71) 10YrYld -0.01 (2.2201), DXY +0.22% ####### Vix -0.46% (15.12).

The S&P gave up 10bps in an hour and a half from the European close but still managed to just hold on to gains for the day. Volumes tracking in the shortened session more than a third less than usual activity. Slight advantage, 55-45, down volume over up volume.

Another quiet session around Thanksgiving with the broad mkt staying in about a 40bps range for the day. Few single stocks stories out there, but standing out probably most notably, was DISNEY -3% on a Wednesday filing disclosing continuing drops in ESPN subscribers, the most profitable part of the co. Given the reaction across the media space in August on ESPN concerns we would take profits made since then. Seems either Disney’s credibility eroding or subs starting to fall faster than before. Being “Black Friday” retail always in focus this week, but more pr than hard data at the moment. Reports that online activity continues to grow, and mobile grows within that. All positive for VISA +40bps , MASTERCARD +50bps as both agnostic to vendor and payment system. Poor China performance overnight leaked into commodities, XME -80bps and crude down more than 2.5%. Dollar also stronger with DXY making a new closing high for the move settling in basically 100.00. Mid-march highs just a fraction away. Small caps outperform the S&P for the 5th straight day and clear early November highs to their best level now since mid-August and up more than 11% from late Sept lows. Most shorted names underperforming today for only the 2nd time in 7 session. Banks outpace the market again with KRE up 25bps and for the 8th time in 9 trading days. We continue to own and see rates rising into the December Fed mtg. Several Fed speakers next week, including on Yellen Wednesday, and payrolls on Friday of course will be closely watched.

OUTPERFORMERS: Real Estate +70bps, Semis +65bps, Food/Staples Retailers +50bps, Telecom +50bps, Banks +50bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Coal -6.1%, Drillers -2.6%, Gold Miners -2.6%, Oil Services -2%, Explorers -1.9%

COMMODS: Cotton +1%, Copper +70bps, Cattle +50bps, Cocoa +20bps, Sugar +15bps….NatGas -3.7%, Heating Oil -3.4%, Crude -2.8%, Wheat -1.7%, Coffee -1.6%


DISNEY -3% 10-Q filing show further drop in ESPN subs
AMAZON -30bps T’giving comps up 28.9% per Channel
NXP SEMI +4.6% receives Chinese regulatory approval for FREESCALE +4% acq

DECKERS -3.2% / GOPRO +1.4% both seen as more promotional this year @ Piper Jaffray
MACYS -1% / KOHLS -90bps seen Black Friday winners @ Stifel
WALMART -60bps some indications of disappointment @ MKM Partners
GAP STORES -2.5% trades to lows on put activity

EXPRESS SCRIPTS -10bps positive comments after mgmt mtg @ JPMorgan

AIG +85bps said to be weighing sale of blocks of life insurance policies
NATIONSTAR -60bps p/t lowered @ UBS