Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.01% (2088.9), D +0.01% (17813.4), N +0.07% (4672.9), CL1 +0.56% (43.12), Copper -0.82% (205.25), Gold -0.38% (1071.45) 10YrYld -0.01 (2.2306), DXY +0.24% (99.77), Vix -4.65% (15.19).

The S&P fell 5bps from the European close falling just into negative territory over the last half hour after spending most the day nominally in the green. Volumes quite light off 25% today to 5.2bln shares, 2bln below avg. Dollars traded off 30% to $185bln, close to $100bln below est. Slight edge to down volume over up on the day.

A very quiet session ahead of the US holiday with stocks trading in a 30bps range for the whole day. Probably the tightest trading range of the year on limited earnings/news flow. See active names below. Most shorted continues to lead up about 1% on the day and outperforming now 5 of the 6 sessions. Crude up on the day with US oil rig counts continuing to fall. Rates quiet as well settling in almost imperceptibly lower at 2.232 on the 10yr. Mkt holding at this week’s high of a 74% prob of a hike priced in. Data today certainly not dampening that view with slightly better than expected durable goods and cap goods orders. Inflation continues to be a non-factor per PCE readings, precious metals leak lower. Dollar Index back to gains again today, largely at the Euro’s expense, just about inline with Monday’s closing high for the move. Save travels to those getting on the road and a Happy Thanksgiving to you.

OUTPERFORMERS: Coal +5.9%, Dept Stores +80bps, Pharma +80bps, Food/Staples Retailers +75bps, Packaged Foods +75bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Metals/Mining -2.4%, Chemicals -1.5%, Explorers -1.3%, Steel -1.2%, Solar -1.2%

COMMODS: Nickel +5.7%, Cotton +2.2%, Soybeans +1.3%, Corn +90bps, Coffee +85bps…..OJ -1.5%, NatGas -1.4%, Cocoa -1%, Copper -90bps, Sugar -60bps

ECON: Personal Income +0.4% inline, Personal Spending +0.1% vs 0.3% est, PCE Deflator m/m 0.1% vs 0.2% est, +0.2% vs 0.3% y/y, Core unch’d vs 0.1% est m/m, +1.3% vs 1.4% y/y, Durable Goods +3% vs 1.7% est, Cap Goods Orders non-def ex-air 1.3% vs 0.2% est, shipments -0.4% vs -0.3% est, Sept Factory Orders revised to -0.8% vs initial -1%, Initial Jobless Claims 260k vs 270k est, New Home Sales 495k vs 500k est, m/m +10.7% vs 6.8% est, U of Mich Sentiment 91.3 vs 93.1 est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
PALO ALTO -40bps u/g @ Argus
SONY -1.7% strong PS4 sales
EBAY unch’d d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
QUNAR +4.2% q3 loss narrower than expected, revs beat
HP INC -13.7% q4 eps at lower end of prior guide, res miss, lowers fy view
HP ENTERPRISE +3.1% maintains fy16 eps view
TIVO +4.9% q3 adj ebitda inline, revs beat, q4 adj ebitda seen below est
VEEVA SYSTEMS +5% q3 small eps, revs beat, raises fy revs view
T-MOBILE US -3.7% further incentives to attract customers as p/x wars escalate
UNIVERSAL DISPLAY +7.2% reports Apple adopting oled, CORNING +5bps

HEALTHCARE
SAREPTA +50bps p/t increased @ Jefferies
BIOMARIN -1.8% trades after yesterday’s halt prior to unfavorable FDA panel view
PTC THERAPEUTICS -7% d/g @ Jefferies
PFIZER +2.8% u/g @ SunTrust
VALEANT -50bps new scrutiny on Philidor relationship

CONSUMER
CRACKER BARREL +85bps d/g @ Argus
GUESS +6.7% q3 eps beat, revs inline, q4 est within guide
HORMEL +3.1% q4 eps beat, revs miss, fy guide above est

FINANCIALS
AMERICAN CAPITAL +9.5% boots buyback, initiates strategic review

CAPITAL GOODS
GENERAL ELECTRIC -1% cautious comments @ Morgan Stanley
DONALDSON +2.5% q1 eps inline, revs miss, lowers fy view
DEERE +4.8% q4 eps beat, res miss, forecast beats estimates
YINGLI GREEN ENERGY -7.3% q3 prelim review seen below estimates
SUNEDISON +21.1% d/g to sell @ UBS

MATERIALS
VALSPAR -1.4% d/g @ RBC