Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.12% (2089.1), D +0.11% (17812.2), N -0.12% (4669.4), CL1 +2.16% (42.65), Copper +2.30% (206.80), Gold +0.59% (1075.50) 10YrYld +0.00 (2.2377), DXY -0.15% (99.66), Vix +1.98% (15.93).

Many thanks to those who supported the War Child charity day, the response has been simply outstanding yet again….

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close holding nominal gains through 2nd half of the US trading day. Volumes up a little less than 10% over yesterday to 6.8bln shares, still below avg of 7.2bln. Dollars traded similarly up to $255bln vs avg $280bln. A little better than 2:1 up volume over down volume.

Markets shrugged off terror/travel concerns to rally off early weakness. Most Short +1.6%. DXY/Rates down small; EUR 1.0649, 10yr 2.2324. Commods rallying Oil back above yesterday’s high, Copper sees biggest uptick in 7 weeks. GDX +3.8% / XME +2.8% / OSX +3.2%. Russian ETF (RSX) -1.7% Putin not overly happy about his warplane being bombed. On Earnings; BEACON ROOFING +10%, BURLINGTON +7%, DOLLAR TREE +7%, ANALOG DEVICES +6%, PALO ALTO +6%, MOVADO +5%, TIFFANY +4%, SIGNET -4%. As expected TIFFANY missed and cut guidance again, but it was expected and we saw shorts covering post event, Japan strong vs weak US; would continue to avoid, detailed thoughts on the note. Travel and Leisure underperformed post travel warning, Hotels -2%/Airlines -3%; we highlight PRICELINE -2% as our preferred Short, structural concerns outlined on the note. SOX +1.3% reverses yesterday’s weakness as ANALOG DEVICES post strong Q4 and NXP SEMI +6% gets US approval on FREESCALE +6% deal. Elsewhere, PINACLE FOODS -1.5% Buying BOULDER BRANDS +8%; Stay Healthy. Reuters reports suggest SHIRE -2% may make renewed bid for BAXALTA +6%; and POTASH +1% for K&S (ADR +4% from Euro close). Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from DEERE +2%, another poor quarter expected.

OUTPEFORMERS: Drillers +4.1%, Gold Miners +3.8%, Oil Services +3.2%, Materials +2.8%, Solar +2.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads -50bps, Real Estate -70bps, Media -80bps, Hotels -2%, Airlines -2.5%

COMMODS: Nickel +5.4%, WTI +2.8%, Copper +2%, Silver +1%, Gold +70bps, Nat Gas -70bps, Wheat -2%, Sugar -2.5%

ECO: GDP QoQ 2.1%, est 2.1%. CaseShiller 182.91, est 183.03. Consumer Confidence 90.4, est 99.5. Richmond Fed -3, est +1.


HP INC. -5.1% q4 at lower end of prior guide, revs miss, q1 guide below est
VEEVA +6.9% q3 eps/revs small beats, q4 guide inline
TIVO +2% q3 adj ebitda inline, revs beat, q4 view below est
GUESS +7.2% q3 eps beat, revs inline, q4 est within guide


ANALOG DEVICES +6.4% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 eps/revs midpoint of guide below est
AKAMAI -60bps positive comments @ JMP Securities
QUALCOMM +90bps added to US 1 List @ BofA/Merrill
BOX +5.9% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
INFOBLOX -10.7% d/g to sell @ Deutsche
PMC-SIERRA -2.2% agrees to deal with MICROSEMI -6.5% terminating deal with SKYWORKS +2.6%
BROCADE -7.7% q4 eps/revs beat, q1 revs seen below est
PALO ALTO +6.3% q1 eps/revs beat, q2 revs seen better than est
PRICELINE -1.9% travel related names under pressure on US warning

TIFFANY +3.6% reverses premkt losses as q3 eps/revs miss, fy guide implied below est
CRACKER BARREL -6.5% q1 eps/revs miss, restaurant comps miss
MGM +1.3% positive comments on Las Vegas @ Wells Fargo
BOULDER BRANDS +8.4% being acq’d for approx $975mm by PINNACLE FOODS -1.5%
FRED’S +5.7% q3 inline, q4 eps guide midpoint below est
DOLLAR TREE +6.6% q3 eps miss
PEP BOYS +2.1% d/g to sell @ Argus
CAMPBELL SOUP +3.1% q1 eps beat, revs inline, raises fy view
DSW +2% q3 inline w/ pre announcement
SIGNET -4.1% q3 eps miss, revs inline, comps miss, q4 guide midpoint below est
MOVADO +4.7% q3 eps, revs miss, fy guide midpoint about inline
BURLINGTON STORES +7.2% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps miss, high end of guide only matches est
AVON +17.2% u/g to buy @ Citi
LOWE’S +90bps u/g @ Atlantic Equities
POST HLDGS +6.7% q4 adj ebitda beat, revs miss
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH +4.7% 3rd straight day of squeeze on #s
COSTCO -80bps e coli breakout per cdc

PATTERSON CO -6% q2 eps/revs just miss, reaffirms
VALEANT +5bps Pershing Square boots stake
BAXALTA +6.4% possible new cash and shares deal from SHIRE -1.9% per press

BEACON ROOFING +9.9% q4 eps/revs beat
US STEEL +1.3% p/t cut @ BofA/Merrill
VALSPAR +2.3% q4 eps beat, small revs miss, fy view below est
POTASH +1.2% said to be working on new K+S bid per press

SEADRILL +2.4% q3 eps/revs miss, sees challenging conditions remaining

KORN/FERRY +20bps named top pick @ SunTrust
XEROX -1.3% Icahn reports 9.9% stake

Have a good evening.