Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.12% (2086.6), D -0.17% (17792.7), N -0.25% (4674.8), CL1 -0.12% (41.85), Copper -2.26% (201.30), Gold -0.79% (1069.33) 10YrYld -0.01 (2.2500), DXY +0.21% (99.78), Vix +1.23% (15.66).

Markets give back early gains over the afternoon, but volumes light given shortened week. S&P -30bps from the Euro close. Most Short +1.3%. Overall volumes -11% DoD and 14% below 20d ave. DXY hits 100 intraday; EUR 1.0629, JPY 122.89. Rates slide through the session, 10yr 2.25; WIRP hits new high 72%. Oil new lows overnight but rallies $2 throughout the session on supportive Saudi comments; Opec meeting 4th Dec. Copper/Gold remain under pressure, 11 year lows in the industrial metals index; FREEPORT -3%. ALCOA +4% catching bid as Elliot declared 6.4% stake. On Earnings; TYSON FOODS +10%, MALLINCKRODT +8%, TRINA SOLAR, GAME STOP -4%. PFIZER -2.6% and ALLERGAN -3.4% confirm terms of combination ($363.63/share), the largest tax inversion in history, political hurdles remain. ACTIVISION (Buy) -40bps trades well despite the Miss & Cut from GAMESTOP -4% (closed at session high, 14% off the low) ; co citied strong demand for Call of Duty but weaker Star Wars, EA -5%. LIONSGATE (unch) and 6% off opening lows, we continue to believe John Malone is more important than 10% Miss on Hunger Games opening weekend. LULULEMON +7% and now +20% in 4 days, ongoing t/o speculation (NKE/UA), big short base and earnings 12/9. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from TIFFANY +2%, weak set up into the numbers but stock just off 52 week lows; In Eco, GDP 8:30am. The main focus for us tomorrow is our Charity Day in aid of War Child, all 3 offices taking part with global commissions donated on an unrestricted basis, which means the charity can use those donations to generate the maximum benefit for children whose lives have been shattered by conflict. All of your help will be greatly appreciated. {https://www.warchild.org.uk/aviate-2015}

OUTPERFORMERS: Packed Foods +1.3%, Drillers +1%, Retail +1%, Staples +80bps, Biotech +70bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Railroads -2.1%, SOX -1.3%, Utils -1%, Tech Hardware -90bps, Materials -80bps

COMMODS: Nat Gas +3.3%, Wheat +1.4%, WTI -20bps, Gold -90bps, Ally -90bps, Cotton -2.1%, Copper -2.2%, Nickel -5.2%

ECO: Man PMI 52.6, est 54.0. Existing Home Sales 5.36m, est 5.40m. MoM -3.4%, est -2.7%.


BROCADE -11% Guides Q1 EPS/revs lower
PALO ALTO +50bps Q1 EPS/Revs ahead; Sees Q2 EPS inline, Revs ahead


HIMAX +4.6% init o/w @ Morgan Stanley
QUALCOMM -1.3% worst case seen priced in @ RBC
MATCH GROUP -4.7% init sell @ BTIG
MICROSOFT -10bps p/t raised @ UBS
LIONSGATE (unch) #s lowered below consensus @ Stifel; defended @ Piper Jaffray
FAIRCHILD -1% d/g @ Susquehanna
VIACOM -3.6% d/g @ Deutsche
CAVIUM -8% d/g @ JMP Securities
YAHOO -3.5% another exec departure reported by re/code
EMC -30bps positive comments @ Bernstein

PFIZER -2.7%/ALLERGAN -3.3% makes long speculated, historic deal official
MALLINCKRODT +8.3% q4 eps/revs beat
VARIAN MEDICAL +20bps add’l 8mm share buyback

CHIPOTLE +4.3% defended @ JPMorgan
PEPSICO +70bps u/g @ Nomura
TYSON FOODS +10% q4 83c, revs beat
PANERA BREAD +3% u/g @ Maxim
KELLOGG +3.6% u/g @ Credit Suisse
GAMESTOP -4% q3 eps/revs miss, q4 below estimates
BUFFALO WILD WINGS +2% $200mm b/b

TRINA SOLAR -6.3% q3 eps miss while revs beat
JOHSON CONTROLS -20bps positive comments @ William Blair
DIEBOLD -7% to buy Wincore Nixdorf for $1.9bln

OCH-ZIFF +6.1% u/g @ Keefe Bruyette
WILLIS GROUP +1.5% u/g from sell @ Deutsche
KEYCORP unch u/g @ Jefferies
AIG +1% Icahn turning up the pressure

PHILLIPS 66 +60bps d/g to sell @ Goldman

ALCOA +4.3% Elliott Mgmt confirms stake

This week’s Earnings Highlights and Eco Highlights…..

TUE: AVIATE CHARITY DAY Analog Devices, Burlington, Dollar Tree, DSW, HP/HPE, Movado, Signet, Tiffany; GDP, CaseShiller, Consumer Confidence
WED: Deere; PCE, FHFA Housing, Comp/Service PMI, New Home Sales, Michigan Sentiment
THU: Market closed full day
FRI: Market closes 1pm

Have a good evening.