Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.38% (2089.2), D +0.51% (17823.8), N +0.67% (4686.4), CL1 -0.37% (40.39), Copper -1.68% (204.80), Gold -0.40% (1078.00) 10YrYld +0.01 (2.2623), DXY +0.64% (99.62), Vix -7.36% (15.75).

Markets opened higher but struggled to do much throughout the rest of the session. S&P -20bps from Euro close. Most Short +1%. Overall volumes +5% DoD and 5% below 20d ave; expiry small. S&P +3.3% on the week. DXY +65bps, reversed yesterday’s losses as Euro pop sold again. Another tough week for commods; Copper -5%, FCX -2%. Oil has tested $40 3x in as many days, saw a little relief as US Rigs -10. New low Nat Gas; SWN -8%. Gold -40bps on the week. EM caught a nice bid over last couple session, would keep an eye on BRL chart; EWZ +1.4%, EEM +1%. Russian ETF (RSX) +70bps close to breaking out. On Earnings; ABERCROMBIE +25%, ROSS STORES +10%, GAP +7.5%, INTUIT +6%, FOOT LOCKER +6%, WORKDAY -1.4%, SPLUNK -3.5%, AUTODESK -3%, NIMBLE -50%. NIKE +5.5% tops Dow (today and ytd) and testing all times highs, $12bn Buyback and 2 for 1 stock split; beast of a co and valuation justified. We highlighted the set up for FOOT LOCKER and co delivered, impressive Beat and very bullish commentary; co well placed to benefit from the growing demand for Athleisure, remain a Buyer. ACTIVISION +1.4% testing all time highs, positive takeaways following our day spent with Fnatic; GAMESTOP +2% earnings Monday. We turn Seller WORKDAY post earnings/call, been in Bubblebox for sometime given the ridiculous valuation but worrying commentary on last night’s call and guide not good enough. CHIPOTLE -12% Ecoli spreading to 3 more states, lot more downside in this stock, silly valuation. In IPOs; DULUTH +14% priced $2 below the range, TRUCK HERO postponed due to market conditions; SQUARE -2%. No major deals expected next week; markets closed Thursday, half day Friday. Focus names; GAMESTOP (eGaming), PALO ALTO (best in class but comps all missing), TIFFANY (weak set up, expect another Miss).

OUTPERFORMERS: Managed HC +2.8%, Retail +2%, Airlines +1.4%, Solar +1.4%, Social Networks +1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -4.1%, Materials -2.8%, Drillers -1%, Oil Services -80bps, Staples -70bps

COMMODS: Sugar +2.5%, Gold -20bps, WTI -30bps, Silver -90bps, Copper -1.3%, Ally -1.4%, Nickel -2.5%, Nat Gas -5.8%

ECO: Kansas City Fed 1, est 0.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Railroads +6.5%, Autos +6%, Semis +5.5%, Homebuilders +5.2%, Retail +4.2%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -1.6%, Materials -1.6%, Solar -1.3%, Drillers -1.1%, Oil Services -70bps

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
AKAMAI -3.9% d/g to sell @ Goldman
AUTODESK -3% q3 eps/revs beat, q4 revs forecast disappoints
INTEL +1.1% u/g to mkt perform @ JMP Securities
MENTOR GRAPHICS -36% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss, Big Q4 Cut
SPLUNK -3.5% q3 eps/revs beat, q4 revs seen better than est
INTUIT +6% q1 profit vs est loss, revs beat, fy guide above est
NIMBLE STORAGE -50% q3 loss wider than expected, revs miss, sees q4 loss vs b/e est
WORKDAY -1.4% q3 revs about inline but q4 revs seen below est
NETFLIX +3% positive comments @ RBC
SPRINT -5.4% $1.2bln sale lease-back deal with Softbank leasing unit, sees fy adj ebitda $6.8-7.1blnvs 7.2-7.6 prior view

HEALTHCARE
ALLERGAN +3.5% / PFIZER -30bps higher likelihood of deal seen after legal analysis @ Citi
DEPOMED -4.7% offer for co. w/d’n buy HORIZON PHARMA +7.8%
MALLINCKRODT +1.5% p/t cut @ Jefferies
BIOMARIN -6% poor FDA review of drug, competitor SAREPTA +28% trades higher
ILLUMINA +30bps positive comments @ Cowen

CONSUMER
HIBBETT SPORTS +16% Q3 EPS 7c Beat, Comps +0.6%, est +2.3%. Raised FY EPS guide
CABELA’S +10% said to see t/o interest from Bass Pro Shops
ROSS STORES +10% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps beat, fy guide midpoint just above street est
ZOES KITCHEN +4% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps miss
NIKE +5.5% $12bln b/b and 2 for 1 stock split
GAP +7.5% q3 inline, brings down fy guide from prior view/street est
WILLIAM-SONOMA -3.4% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps small miss, q4 guide below street
FOOT LOCKER +5.7% Q3 EPS $1, est 95c. Revs $1.79bn, $1.78bn. Comps +8.7%, est +6.3%.
FRANCESCA’S +9.5% Sees Q3 EPS/Revs at the top end
ABERCROMBIE & FITCH +25% EPS 15c Beat; Comps -1%, est -2.4% (32% short base).
DOLLAR GENERAL +2.3% u/g @ BB&T

ENERGY
SUNEDISON -1.4% d/g @ JPMorgan

MATERIALS
EAGLE MATERIALS -2.7% d/g @ Goldman

Next week’s Earnings Highlights and Eco Highlights…..

MON: Gamestop, Mallinckrodt, Palo Alto, Tyson Foods; Existing Home Sales
TUE: AVIATE CHARITY DAY Analog Devices, Burlington, Dollar Tree, DSW, HP/HPE, Movado, Signet, Tiffany; GDP, CaseShiller, Consumer Confidence
WED: Deere; PCE, FHFA Housing, Comp/Service PMI, New Home Sales, Michigan Sentiment
THU: Market closed full day
FRI: Market closes 1pm

Have a great weekend. Our big focus next week is the charity day on Tuesday to support War Child.

https://www.warchild.org.uk/aviate-2015