Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.11% (2081.2), D -0.02% (17732.8), N +0.04% (4655.4), CL1 -0.59% (40.51), Copper -0.26% (207.75), Gold +1.09% (1082.42) 10YrYld -0.03 (2.2430), DXY -0.66% (98.99), Vix +1.31% (17.07).

The S&P closed down 10bps from the European close spending the majority of the afternoon in negative territory. Volume off 10% to 6.5bln shares falling further below avg of 7.3bln. Dollars traded off 12% to $250bln vs avg of $228bln est. Up/down volume practically even with slightest skew to the downside.

Markets struggled to hold yesterday’s rally. Most Short -90bps. DXY -70bps as the crowded Euro (1.0735) short tested. EM outperforming; EEM +90bps / EWZ +2.1%. Oil holds test of $40 for 2nd day. Precious metals bouncing but Copper continues to bleed; FREEPORT -4%. ALCOA +4% on reports China ready to review policy on aluminum. On Earnings; GREEN MOUNTAIN +18%, CTRIP +15%, SALESFORCE +4%, BEST BUY -2%, UNITED HEALTH -6%. INTEL +3.4% post Investor Day, co raised Div, sees FY16 Revs slightly ahead of street, Capex to upper end, and focused on cutting Mobile losses; MICRON +1.7%, LAM -70bps. FORD +80bps sees strong Auto Sales for next 2-3 year, No1 in driver-assist system, VW scandal having little impact on diesel sales. In M&A; ALLERGAN -2.8% / PFIZER -3.1% said to be making progress but we think political hurdles will be too high; FT suggesting $380/share. In IPOs; disappointment last night on pricing, bankers marking them down to get the deals away; SQUARE +45% clearly mispriced, MATCH +23% traded well but MINECAST +1% broke intraday. ABN Amro (ABN NA) comes back to European market tomorrow, priced at €17.50. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from FOOT LOCKER +70bps, given the stock fallen 20% from the August Beat and NKE/ADS came out with impressive print, I think the set up looks favorable (10% implied move). ABERCROMBIE also reporting; KELLOGG host Investor Day.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +3.6%, Airlines +1.9%, Railroads +1.7%, Semis +1%, Utils +1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Managed HC -5.8%, Drillers -3.2%, Oil Services -2.2%, Solar -2.2%, IBB -1.6%

COMMODS: Coffee +5.8%, Sugar +3%, Gold +1.2%, Silver +1.2%, WTI -20bps, Copper -10bps, Ally -40bps, Nat Gas -3.4%

ECO: Initial Jobless 271k, est 270k. Philly Fed 1.9, est -0.5.


AUTODESK -2.8% q3 eps/revs beat, q4 revs forecast disappoints
SPLUNK +1.2% q3 eps/revs beat, q4 revs seen better than est
ROSS STORES +6.1% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps beat, fy guide midpoint just above street est
INTUIT +7.9% q1 profit vs est loss, revs beat, fy guide above est
NIMBLE STORAGE -34.3% q3 loss wider than expected, revs miss, sees q4 loss vs b/e est
WORKDAY -1.9% q3 revs about inline but q4 revs seen below est
ZOES KITCHEN -9% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps miss
NIKE +4.2% $12bln b/b
GAP -4.3% q3 inline, brings down fy guide from prior view/street est
WILLIAM-SONOMA -3.4% q3 eps beat, revs inline, comps small miss, q4 guide below street


SALESFORCE.COM +4.2% q3 eps beat, revs in line, subscription revs beat, margin beats, q4/fy guide inline, positive fy 16/17 guidance
NETAPP -25bps q2 eps beat, revs inline, product rev better than est
YAHOO -1.1% Starboard now urges not to spin-off Alibaba stake
CTRIP.COM +15.4% q3 eps/revs beat q4 revs guide better
SINA +2.7% q3 eps beat, revs small miss, positive comments in WSJ
WEIBO +2% q3 eps/revs beat
FACEBOOK -1.4% positive comments @ Citi
PALO ALTO +2.3% / FORTNIENT +1.1% seen as possible t/o tgts @ Oppenheimer
SEAGATE -30bps u/g @ Craig-Hallum
QUALCOMM +80bps p/t cut @ Stifel
SQUARE +45.2% / MATCH.COM +22.8% / MIMECAST +1% ipo debuts after pricing below or at bottom of ranges

L BRANDS -10bps q3 eps beat, revs inline w/ prev report, q4 guide below est
KEURIG GREEN MTN +18.2% q4 eps strong beat, revs inline, fy fcf view much better than est, boosts div
BLOOMIN BRANDS -60bps d/g off Conviction Buy List @ Goldman
BRINKER -40bps d/g @ Goldman
WENDY’S +4.6% u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
BRIGHT HORIZONS +70bps 3.65mm secondary
BON-TON -38.9% q3 adj ebitda/revs miss
STAGE STORES -30.8% q3 loss wider than est, revs miss
SPECTRUM BRANDS +2.9% q4 eps/revs small misses
BEST BUY -2.1% q3 eps beat, revs inline, co. more cautious than expected on outlook
JM SMUCKER +7% q2 eps beat, revs inline, raises low end of fy range
THE BUCKLE -2.1% q3 eps miss
PERRY ELLIS +15.6% q3 16c vs 4c est, revs miss, raises fy range
FOOT LOCKER +70bps cautious comments @ UBS

UNITEDHEALTH +5.7% warns on fy view
ALLERGAN -2.8% said to be close to deal with PFIZER -3.1% despite pressure on inversions from Treasury
TETRAPHASE +6% u/g @ SunTrust

LENNOX -20bps d/g @ Longbow
GENERAL DYNAMICS +1% u/g @ Argus
CATEPILLAR -40bps Oct Machine sales -16% vs -11% Sept #

EQUINIX -2.4% prices 2.6mm secondary

SUNOCO +3.6% u/g @ Credit Suisse
VALERO ENERGY PARTNERS -7.4% 4.25mm unit sale

Next week’s Earnings Highlights and Eco Highlights…..

MON: Gamestop, Mallinckrodt, Palo Alto, Tyson Foods; Existing Home Sales
TUE: AVIATE CHARITY DAY Analog Devices, Burlington, Dollar Tree, DSW, HP/HPE, Movado, Signet, Tiffany; GDP, CaseShiller, Consumer Confidence
WED: Deere; PCE, FHFA Housing, Comp/Service PMI, New Home Sales, Michigan Sentiment
THU: Market closed full day
FRI: Market closes 1pm

Have a good evening.