Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.49% (2053.1), D +1.38% (17483.0), N +1.41% (4565.5), CL1 +2.97% (41.95), Copper -2.09% (213.05), Gold -0.15% (1082.34) 10YrYld +0.00 (2.2693), DXY +0.37% (99.37), Vix -10.61% (17.95).

The S&P closed up 1.5% from the European close to end the day at session highs, the opposite of recent sessions. Volumes on this rally light though off 14% from Friday to 6.7bln shares, 400mm less than est. Dollars traded off similary down to $265bln, $20bln below est. 85% of volume to the upside.

Markets go out on session highs, impressive move given the events on Friday evening. Eminis rallied 50 points from last night, testing 200dma again. S&P +1.5% vs Most Short +1.4% but volumes not there. DXY retesting highs; EUR 1.0685, JPY 123.19. 10yr 2.2676, Dec rise not so clear cut after last 10 days; WIRP 66%. Banks +1.2%. Oil bounced off $40 intraday, potential military actions may be catalyst for $2 squeeze this afternoon. XLE +3.3%. Copper posts another new low, Codelco bearish. Not a surprise to see Defense strong vs Travel & Leisure; FLIR +10%, RAYTHEON +4%, DELTA -2.2%, PRICELINE -2.4%. Muted bounce across the Retail space today, DILLARDS -6% the latest dept store to Miss; and makes sense given the number of earnings this week; new low MACY’S -1.2%, FOSSIL -1.7%. In M&A, MARRIOT +1.4% acquiring STARWOOD -3.6% in $12.2bn deal, price and terms significantly lower than the recent speculation around the street. LIBERTY GLOBAL -2.8% confirms $5.3bn C&W purchase, 78.04p. AIRGAS +4.4% remains on the radar today, another big move on volume; as a reminder Peltz involved in PENTAIR +1.2% (7.6% holding). WHIRLPOOL +2.4% October AHAM +8.6% YoY. ELECTONIC ARTS -2.7% following mixed Star Wars reviews; NVIDIA-2% sees upgrade. CLOVIS ONCOLOGY -70% on –ve lunch cancer drug data; positive AZN +5%. Looking into tomorrow; HOME DEPOT and WALMART reporting; CATERPILLAR Analyst & Investor Call. Full details below. Reporting on the close; URBAN OUTFITTERS -9% ah (-7% in normal trade).

OUTPERFORMERS: Explorers +4%, Homebuilders +2.8%, Solar +2.7%, Defense +2.2%, Oil Services +2.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Airlines -70bps, Biotech +40bps, Railroads +50bps, Chems +70bps, Gold Miners +90bps

COMMODS: WTI +2.7%, Coffee +2.5%, Sugar +1.1%, Nat Gas +90bps, Gold +5bps, Ally -1.4%, Copper -2.5%, Lean Hogs -5.8%

ECO: Empire Man -10.74, est -6.5


NUANCE COMM +4.9% q4 eps/revs beat
URBAN OUTFITTERS -7.2% q3 eps inline, revs light, UO/Anthropologie comps both miss


NVIDIA +2% u/g @ Canaccord
DISNEY +90bps d/g @ Guggenheim
APPLE +1.6% p/t lowered @ UBS
SPRINT +70bps reorg/job cuts detailed in press report

STARWOOD -3.6% to be bought by MARIOTT +1.4% for $12.2bln cash/stock
PVH CORP +1.8% positive comments @ Piper Jaffray
BEST BUY -1.3% d/g @ RBC
FIVE BELOW -2% d/g @ Deutsche
FERRARI -3.7% init sell @ Evercore ISI
WILLIAMS-SONOMA +1% p/t lowered @ Baird
CHIPOTLE -70bps falling comps seen @ Bernstein
DILLARD’S -6.4% another retailer miss as q3 falls short
MOLSON COORS +10bps p/t raised @ Cowen
COTY -3.8% init sell @ Off Wall Street
WYNN +2.1% Nov. GGR view cut @ Wells Fargo
WHIRLPOOL +2.4% good US Oct home appliance data
URBAN OUTFITTERS -7.4% down on acq of restaurant chain

ELI LILLY +2.1% u/g @ BMO
ENDO -1.9% d/g @ Mizuho
PERRIGO +1.4% u/g @ UBS
ALLERGAN -30bps / PFIZER -30bps tgt late November deal per press
CLOVIS -69.6% FDA requests add’l drug data
AMERISOURCEBERGEN +70bps u/g @ Morgan Stanley
ZOETIS +90bps removed from US1 List @ BofA/Merrill

GOLDMAN SACHS +90bps Berkshire cuts stake

DEERE +10bps negative comments ahead of earnings @ Deutsche
WABTEC +1.4% u/g @ Raymond James
EMERSON +2.4% positive comments on divestiture plans in Barron’s
ROCKWELL COLLINS +3.4 named a top 3 pick @ Cowen
GENERAL ELECTRIC +25bps near term risks seen, added to s/t sell list @ Deutsche
FLIR SYSTEMS +10.3% bid up as a defense/detection play

GENESEE & WYOMING +1.4% positioned to be opportunistic should CP/NSC merger per Barron’s

WYERHAEUSER +3% positive comments on prospects post-PCL deal in Barron’s
AIRGAS +4.3% continues Friday’s move but no hard news yet

HELMRICH & PAYNE +1.7% d/g @ Evercore ISI

This week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights….

TUE: Dicks Sporting, Eros, Home Depot, TJX, Wal-Mart. McDermott, Qorvo, Radius ID. Caterpillar, Monsanto AD. BAML Banking, MS Consumer, UBS Tech Conf; CPI, Industrial Prod, NAHB Housing
WED: L Brand, Lowe’s, NetApp, Salesforce, Staples, Target. BARC Autos, MS Consumer Conf; Housing Starts, Fed Mins
THU: Autodesk, Best Buy, Gap, Ross Stores, Splunk, Williams Sonoma, Workday. Ford AD. Intel, Rockwell Auto ID. UBS Industrial Conf.
FRI: Abercrombie, Dollar Tree, Foot Locker. Kellogg ID. UBS Industrial Conf.

Have a good evening