Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -1.40% (2046.0), D -1.44% (17448.1), N -1.04% (4588.9), CL1 -3.00% (41.63), Copper -2.32% (216.65), Gold -0.20% (1084.17) 10YrYld -0.02 (2.3133), DXY -0.57% (98.47), Vix +13.08% (18.17).

The S&P closed down about 70bps from the European close ending the day again at session lows. Pharma/Biotech, Semis, Cap Goods, Finanicals leading the afternoon slide. Volume up 10% today as the bond mkt was back, 7bln shares traded inline w/ the 20 day avg. Dollars traded up 15% to $270bln closer to avg of $280bln. Very negative sentiment with 90% of volume to the downside.

Markets post 2nd consecutive session closing on the lows, Eminis break 200dma, very little takeaways from Fed speakers. S&P -1.4% vs Most Short -2.6% (new low). FX markets a little jittery as Yellen said nothing (as she meant too!), everyone short Euro (1.0811); DXY -50bps. Rates also lower; 10yr 2.3151. Banks -2%. Oil/Copper/Gold making new lows. Another Crude Build. HELMERICH & PAYNE -3.6% reiterate how bad things are. XME -3% / XLE -2.3%. FREEPORT -6%, US STEEL -4%. FINNING -4% (CATERPILLAR’S -4.5% largest Global distributor) Missed and cut 8% of workforce, more –ve commentary for the space; Note CAT have Investor Day Tues. WW GRAINGER -5.4% highlighted “tough industrial economy” and expects “more of the same” in 2016; commentary very much inline with entire space. Market had been expected KOHL’S +6% to warn this morning and they actually Beat; Department stores one of few bright spots today. Our eGaming theme sees yet another positive data point as NETEASE +2% put up impressive Beat last night; ACTIVISION +1.3%. VIACOM +90bps. missed but expectations were low but sees continued sequential improvement in Q4 domestic ad sales, enough to attract some buyers. ADVANCED AUTO PARTS -15% worst performing stock in S&P post earnings. Looking into tomorrow; earnings expected from JC Penny, Retail Sales….and going into next week earnings focus remains on the retailers, full list below. Several Analyst/Investor days worth highlighting CAT, F, INTC, K, MON, RDUS. And; Auto, Banking, Consumer, Tech conferences. LOANDEPOT IPO expected to price tonight and trade tomorrow, will be interesting to see where this gets priced (if at all) given current market.

OUTPERFORMERS: Media -30bps, Real Estate -70bps, Tech Hardware -70bps, Defense -70bps, Telcos -90bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Materials -3%, Drillers -2.8%, Homebuilders -2.6%, Building Mats -2.5%, Regional Banks -2.1%

COMMODS: Sugar +2%, Wheat +80bps, Nat Gas 35bps, Silver +10bps, Gold -20bps, Ally -1.6%, Copper -2.2%, WTI -2.8%

ECO: Initial Jobless 276k, est 270k. JOLTs Job 5526, est 5400.
AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

CISCO -4.1% q1 eps/revs small beat but q2 guide disappoints
NORDSTROM’S -15.6% q3 eps/revs miss, fy comps guidance below street & prev view
FOSSIL -13.1% q3 beat, revs miss, q4 guide below est, lowers fy outlook, $260mm acq in wearables
APPLIED MATERIALS +3.2% q4 29c inline, revs touch light, q1 middpoint inline w/ est
BEBE STORES -7.3% q1 loss wider than expected, sees q2 loss vs est of small profit
EL POLLO LOCO -7.6% q3 eps/revs miss, comps miss, lowers high end of fy range
SHAKE SHACK -1.2% files prospectus for 26.16mm shares
YUM! BRANDS +5.2% est Oct comp sales up 5%

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
LIBERTY INTERACTIVE -2.2% to spin off CommerceHub, Liberty Expedia Hldgs
VIACOM +90bps q4 eps/revs miss mostly due to filmed entertainment
ALIBABA -1.4% p/t raised @ Deutsche
SUNEDISON -7.4% d/g to sell @ Axiom
500.COM +3.9% q3 loss less than 1 est, net revs $0
HIMAX +65bps q3 epads miss but revs beat, guidance roughly inline
NETEASE +2.2% q3 eps/revs beat
ELECTRONIC ARTS +50bps defended @ Barclays
ANGIE’S LIST +13.3% receives $8.75/shr cash bid from IAC INTERACTIVE -10bps
YELP +3.7% higher on internet/social m&a
NCR -1.3% Blackstone to invest $820mm for stake, $1bln b/b
EXPEDIA -60bps positive comments @ Cantor
CAVIUM -2.4% / XILINX -90bps positive comments @ Pacific Crest
ARM HLDGS -80bps positive comments @ KeyBanc
FITBIT -7.7% still under pressure into secondary pricing

CONSUMER
ADVANCED AUTO PARTS -15.4% q3 eps/revs/comps miss
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR +4.7% q3 inline, revs miss, q4 guide below street
KOHL’S +6.1% q3 eps/revs/comps small beats
INT’L GAME TECHNOLOGY +6.2% q4 eps beat, revs miss
SEAWORLD -1.4% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
VF CORP -1.6% d/g @ Sterne Agee
ENERGIZER -9.1% q4 eps miss, revs beat, fy guide below ests
FLOWERS FOODS -11.7% q3 inline, brings down high end of fy guide
FAIR ISAAC -60bps q4 eps miss, revs inline, fy revs seen below est
URBAN OUTFITTERS -1.7% p/t lowered @ Brean Capital
POPEYE’S LOUISIANA KITCHEN +6.7% q3 eps beat, revs inline, boots fy forecast
DICK’S -2.2% d/g @ OTR Research
SALLY BEAUTY +10.3% q4 eps miss but profits beat
AVON -13.9% CDS blows out to record wides

HEALTHCARE
DISCOVER LABS -40.4% trial halted
ELI LILLY -1% p/t raised @ Leerink

CAPITAL GOODS
TRANSDIGM +4.9% q4 eps/revs beat, fy revs view below est
SUNPOWER -2.7% sees fy revs, ebitda above est
WW GRAINGER -5.4% sees weak industrial environment at analyst day

ENERGY
RANGE RESOURCES -1.2% u/g @ RBC
HELMERICH & PAYNE -3.6% q4 eps miss, revs beat
ANADARKO -4.1% d/g @ Tudor Pickering
Next week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights….

MON: Aligent, JD.com. Hasbro & Reynolds ID. UBS Tech Conf; Empire Man
TUE: Dicks Sporting, Home Depot, TJX, Wal-Mart. McDermott, Qorvo, Radius ID. Caterpillar, Monsanto AD. BAML Banking, MS Consumer, UBS Tech Conf; CPI, Industrial Prod, NAHB Housing
WED: L Brand, Lowe’s, NetApp, Salesforce, Staples, Target. BARC Autos, MS Consumer Conf; Housing Starts, Fed Mins
THU: Autodesk, Best Buy, Gap, Ross Stores, Splunk, Williams Sonoma, Workday. Ford AD. Intel, Rockwell Auto ID. UBS Industrial Conf.
FRI: Abercrombie, Dollar Tree, Foot Locker. Kellogg ID. UBS Industrial Conf.
Have a good evening.