Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.33% (2074.9), D -0.32% (17702.2), N -0.10% (4636.9), CL1 -2.83% (42.96), Copper -0.09% (221.55), Gold -0.41% (1085.21) 10YrYld -0.01 (2.3301), DXY -0.32% (98.98), Vix +4.91% (16.04).

The S&P closed down 15bps from the European close ending the day on the lows and 60bps down from mid-session highs. Steady decline from breakeven for the day over the last hour and a half led by the visible sectors of Pharma/Biotech, Tech Hardware, Software/Services, and Semis. Volumes lighter with the Veterans’ Day holiday, off 7% today to 6.3bln shares, 800mm below avg. Dollars traded off 12% to $230bln, $50bln below avg. About 2/3 of volume to the downside today.

Markets closed on session lows, struggling to hold small midday rally. S&P -30bps vs Most Short -3.2%.  Bond market closed for Veterans day; DXY -30bps. EEM +20bps / EWZ +2%. Oil continues to bleed post API Build / Iraq supply, breaks $43; DOE tomorrow. APACHE -7% deal pulled. Copper holding 52 week lows for now; FREEPORT -5% avoid. XLE -2% / XME -1.6%. Homebuilders outperform for 2nd day; DR HORTON +3%. Big Tech trades well; New highs in ALPHABET +1%, FACEBOOK +1.2% and AMAZON +2.2%, with the latter surely a key driver for yet another Warning at MACY’S -14%. Sees FY EPS 8% below street and FY Comps -3% (street -1%). And in sympathy; TIFFANY -3% (also note weakness in Asian comps), RL -6%, KOHL’s -5% (reports tom), URBAN -7%. FOSSIL also on 52 week lows ahead of tomorrow’s earnings, expect to see further disruption from iWatch. ALIBABA -2% issued some impressive Singles Day stats (+60% YoY) but not enough to hold early rally in stock; but overall supportive to our Asian teams “move to mobile” theme. MOLSON COORS +4% new all times as MillerCoors deal confirmed, see deal >25% accretive to cash earnings in first year. No bounce in Solar today; SUNEDISON -15% falls below $5. Looking into tomorrow; focus on Fed speakers, Bullard 9:05, Yellen 9:30, Evans 10:15, Dudley 12:10, Fisher 18:00. Earnings expected from AMAT, CSCO, FOSL, JWN, KITE, KSS, VIAB.

OUTPERFORMERS: Homebuilders +1.8%, Gold Miners +1.4%, Utils +90bps, Building Mat +90bps, Telco +40bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -4.3%, Retail -2.3%, Oil Services -1.8%, Materials -1.6%, Biotech -1.5%

COMMODS: Lean Hogs +4.5%, Nickel +1.6%, Wheat +1.1%, Copper -10bps, Gold -40bps, Silver -60bps, Nat Gas -2.6%, WTI -2.9%

ECO: Mortgage Apps -1.3%, prev -0.8%


POPEYE’S LOUISIANA KITCHEN +4.6% q3 eps beat, revs inline, boots fy forecast
ANGIE’S LIST +7.6receives $8.75/shr cash bid from IAC INTERACTIVE +10bps
YELP +2.8% higher on internet/social m&a
NCR +4.3% Blackstone said near stake for minority stake


AMDOCS -7.8% q4 eps small beat, revs small miss, q1 eps/revs view below est
SPLUNK -90bps positive comments @ William Blair
SANDISK -1.4% d/g @ Bernstein
T-MOBILE US +1% defended @ Oppenheimer
ALIBABA -1.9% strong Singles Day #s
STMICRO -15bps CEO says m&a not a priortity
ORACLE -2.2% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
ALPHABET +90bps p/t increased @ MKM
ACTIVISION +2.1% $550mm in initial sales
FITBIT -4.5% secondary pricing due tomm night
PANDORA +3.3% conf presentation today

EVERYDAY HEALTH -33.1% prelim eps/revs below est, cuts fy view below street as well
ARENA PHARMA -5.3% reverses early gains, q3 loss narrower than expected, revs beat
JUNO THERAPEUTICS +90bps turns positive but q3 loss 2x est, revs well short, cash burn concerns
HORIZON PHARMA -19.6% affiliated pharmacy dropped by EXPRESS SCRIPTS -4.1%
OPKO HEALTH +1.7% mentioned as possible tgt in m&a column
DEPOMED -6.2% u/g @ Wallachbeth Capital
VALEANT -5.7% p/t cut @ JPMorgan
BOSTON SCIENTIFC -4.2% negative CMS comments on implant
INTECEPT -11.7% p/t lowered @ FBR

MACY’S -14% q3 eps 1c beat, revs miss, comps bad miss, q4/fy guidance well below street
JC PENNEY -1.8% q2 comps +6.4% vs 4.5% est
AB INBEV +2.8% in $107bln pact with SABMiller
MOLSON COORS +4.4% to take full control of MillerCoors j/v
KOHL’S -5.4% #s lowered @ Jefferies
KROGER -65bps $800mm acq for ROUNDY’S

ADT +4.4% q4 eps beat, revs small miss, ebitda beat, sees subscriber gains next yr

TYCO +1.7% u/g @ JPMorgan
MIDDLEBY -6.2% q3 inline as sales decline

FIRST REPUBLIC +30bps u/g @ Raymond James
METLIFE -1% d/g @ Morgan Stanley

FEDEX -30bps removed from focus list @ Citi

GULFPORT ENERGY -3.2% u/g from sell @ Goldman
ATWOOD OCEANICS -12.7% gives up yest’s gains and then some w/ negative notes @ Barclays & @ Fearnley Securities

Have a good evening.