Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.98% (2078.6), D -1.00% (17730.5), N -1.10% (4655.5), CL1 -0.68% (44.03), Copper -0.54% (222.95), Gold +0.20% (1091.81) 10YrYld +0.03 (2.3527), DXY -0.16% (99.04), Vix +14.65% (16.49).

The S&P closed up 35bps from the European holding most of the gains from a rally from afternoon lows in the last 45 minutes of the day. No panic surge in volumes off about 12% from Friday (skewed perhaps from payrolls) to 6.9bln shares, inline with avg. Dollars traded off 9% to $275bln, just below avg. About 80% of volume printing to the downside, though.

Markets caught a bid over last 30 mins due to MOC Buy skew but still lower across the board. DXY seeing a little pullback; EUR 1.0753, JPY 123.16. Rates continue to grind higher and commentators see Dec rise nailed on; 10yr 2.353 (Banks -1%). EWZ -3.1%, EEM -2.5%. Oil / Copper continue to bleed. XLE & XME -1%. ALCOA -5.3% almost back to lows, dgrade today. On Earnings; DEAN FOODS +7.3%, WHITEWAVE +4.7%, PRICELINE -10%, HERTZ -13%. PLUMCREEK +17% tops S&P as WEYERHAEUSER agrees to pay $8.4bn in stock. Rails rally this afternoon on bberg report CANADIAN PACIFIC +6% said to be considering bid for NORFOLK SOUTHERN +11% (CP had failed talks with CSX last year, regulatory issues). APACHE +13% said to have rejected t/o offer, no names mentioned in the article but market speculation pointing to EXXON -2.1% (unconfirmed). Department stores the big loser today; MACY’S -5.4% and NORDSTROM -4.7% making new 52 week lows on cautious broker note, earnings later this week; Retail Sales Friday. ALIBABA -3% remains under pressure from Chanos comments despite Single Day catalyst on Wednesday. JUNIPER -8% as reports suggest 8% of revs could be at risk from Cisco/Ericsson alliance. MALLINCKRODT -17% as Citron sees more downside than VALEANT +4.5%; which Ackman called an “Extraordinary Bargain” on today’s call.

OUTPERFORMERS: Railroads +2.8%, Gold Miners +2.8%, Utils +30bps, Biotech +10bps, Media -20bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Airlines -2.4%, Integrated -2.3%, Retail -2.1%, Refiners -1.7%, Homebuilders -1.6%

COMMODS: OJ +3.1%, Gold +40bps, WTI -70bps, Copper -70bps, Ally -1%, Silver -1.6%, Sugar -2.8%, Wheat -4.2%

ECO: Nothing of interest


CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT -7.5% q3 adj ebitda $317mm, revs $1.14bln
JAZZ PHARMA -7% q3 eps and revs miss, brings down high end of fy guidance
LIONS GATE FILMS -6.5% q2 adj ebitda loss vs forecast +$33.5mm, revs miss
MCDERMOTT +9.5% q3 profit vs forecast loss, revs beat
RAXSPACE +5.8% q3 adj ebitda beats, revs beat
GAP -7% October comps miss, Cuts Q3 EPS guide


SCRIPPS NETWORKS -1.1% q3 $1.06 vs 98c est, revs $776.1mm vs 761.1 est
STRATASYS -3.1% d/g @ Deutsche
MERCADOLIBRE -50bps p/t raised @ Piper
DISH NETWORKS -1% q3 42c vs 38c est, revs $3.73bln vs 3.8 est
COMMSCOPE -11.8% q3 53c vs 49c est, revs $972.6mm vs $1.0bln est, sees q4 39-44c vs 52c est
AUTODESK -60bps d/g @ UBS
BITAUTO -4.3% q3 28c vs 26c est, revs $167.6mm vs 166.9 est, sees q4 revs $188.8-193.5mm vs 209.7 est
FIREYE -30bps p/t cut @ Imperial
QUALCOMM -90bps WSJ article on China struggles; d/g @ Nomura
HEWLETT-PACKARD -1% positive comments in Barron’s post-split off citing analyst
PRICELINE -9.6% q3 $25.35 vs 24.21 est, revs $3.1bln vs 3.05 est, sees q4 $11.10-11.90 vs 12.42 est
RUCKUS WIRELESS +2.5% added to conviction buy list @ Goldman
JUNIPER -7.8% less likely to be acq tgt in light of Cisco/Ericsson pact
YAHOO -1.5% said to hire McKinsey to advise on turnaround strategy

BUFFALO WILD WINGS +50bps u/g @ KeyBanc
HERTZ -12.6% q3 49c vs 52c est, revs $2.98bln vs 3.07 est
L BRANDS -3.3% d/g @ JPMorgan
DEL FRISCO’S -4.2% d/g @ Piper
NU SKIN +2% negative mention in Barron’s
GENERAL MOTORS -20bps positive comments in Barron’s
ICONIX BRAND +2.2% q3 9c, revs $88.9mm vs 89mm est, sees fy revs $370-380mm vs 412.4 est
DEAN FOODS +7.3% q3 30c vs 24c est, revs $2.03bln vs 2.04 est
MACY’S -5.4% / KOHL’S -5.6% #s cut after channel checks @ Citi
WHITEWAVE +4.6% q3 33c vs 31c est, sees q4 34-35c vs 35c est
TARGET -1.3% positive comments @ Citi
SOTHEBY’S -6.1% q3 (26c) vs (27c) est, revs $138mm vs 111.1 est, main business results dissapoint

MANNKIND -8.4% q3 (8c) vs (7c) est
SANOFI -2.5% d/g @ Bernstein
INTERCEPT +8.8% q3 ($2.10)
HORIZON PHARMA +6.1% sees fy16 adj ebitda $460-475mm vs 432.3 est
NOVAVAX -6.3% q3 (12c) vs (10c) est, revs $6.5bmm vs 10.8mm est
MALLINCKRODT -17% cautious note @ Citron

REGAL-BELOIT -1.8% q3 $1.43 vs 1.42 est, revs $882.3mm vs 916.3 est, sees fy $5.25-5.35 vs 5.38 est

REGIONS FINANCIAL -1.4% d/g @ Deutsche
JG WENTWORTH -17.8% q3 18c vs 19c est
AMERIPRISE -1.6% long vs short PRINCIPAL -2.9% suggested @ Citi
WALTER INVESTMENT +8.8% u/g @ Keefe Bruyette
AFFILIATED MANAGERS -5.9% q3 $2.93 vs 2.87 est, revs $640.3mm vs 632.5 est
STIFEL +4.2% u/g @ Nomura

GULFMARK -5.1% q3 (55c) vs (36c) est, revs $60.7mm vs 67.4 est, sees q4 revs $46-51mm vs 62.7 est
APACHE +13.2% said to have rebuffed unsolicited approach
BONANZA CREEK -5.3% d/g @ Raymond James

ARCH COAL -6% q3 adj ebitda $134.8mm vs 68.6 est, revs $688.5mm vs 688.4 est
PLUM CREEK +17.3% to be acq’d for $4.8bln by WYERHAEUSER -3%
ALCOA -5.3% d/g @ Nomura
US STEEL -3.7% d/g @ Morgan Stanley

NORFOLK SOUTHERN +11% said to be in discussion to be acq’d by CANADIAN PACIFIC +5.9%

Have a good evening.