Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.03% (2099.2), D +0.26% (17910.3), N +0.09% (4707.2), CL1 -1.62% (44.47), Copper -0.51% (224.35), Gold -1.38% (1088.66) 10YrYld +0.09 (2.3270), DXY +1.26% (99.17), Vix -4.52% (14.37).

Mixed session following impressive NFP, Dec rise increasingly likely which should be taken well. S&P +40bps from the Euro close. Most Short +1%. Overall volumes +6% DoD and 12% above 20d ave. S&P +90bps on the week. DXY +2.3% this week and I expect 100 to be retested in the short term. EUR 1.0745, JPY 123.19. EEM -1.4% / EWZ -1.5%. Big move in the 10yr this week (2.17-2.33%) and Banks outperformed as you would expect. New closing high KRE -3%. Defensive plays all weak; XLU -3.5%. No surprise to see commods come for sale, Oil/Gold -5% on the week, Copper -3%. FREEPORT -6.4%, BHP -5.2%, VALE -5.7%. Despite this, energy names squeeze this week, see below; DIAMOND +17%. On today’s Earnings; QORVO +23%, HORIZON +22%, TABLEAU +21%, NVIDIA +14%, ARISTA +14%, SKYWORKS +7%, TAKE-TWO +3.5%, DISNEY +2%, CYBERARK -4%, TRIPADVISOR -7%. SOX back above 200dma on related earnings; NVIDIA a core name in our eGaming theme with superb numbers (full thoughts on the website). ACTIVISION -6% T&A on the Investor Day, not a huge surprise given the run; co suggesting eSports will be larger than traditional sports (something quite sad about that), Neil will send out full thoughts in his weekly tomorrow. In M&A, AZN -1.3% buying ZS PHARMA +40% for $2.7bn in cash. INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS +40bps (ADR -4% from Euro close) says not considering sale/merger. Earnings fall off a cliff next week (thankfully); Department stores and Retail Sales the highlight, WFC host TMT conference and CSFB Healthcare. Details below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Inv Banks +4.5%, Regional Banks +3%, SOX +2.6%, IT Security +1.3%, Solar +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -4.4%, Utils -3.6%, Real Estate -3.2%, Drillers -1.1%, Staples -1.1%

COMMODS: Ally +1.1%, Gasoline +80bps, Copper -65bps, Gold -1.5%, WTI -1.9%, Sugar -1.9%, Silver -2%, Coffee -2.2%

ECO: NFP 271k, est 185k (prior revised -5k). Unemployment Rate inline at 5%. Hourly earnings higher.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +8.4%, Drillers +7.9%, Oil Services +4%, Building Materials +3.3%, Social Networks +3%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -6.9%, Media -2.4%, Staples -1.5%, Tech Hardware -1.2%, Insurance -80bps


HAIN CELESTIAL -4.2% Q1 EPS inline, revs miss, reaffirms FY guidance
JD.COM +3.2% sues Alibaba for misleading users on speedy delivery, initiated buy at Goldman
KRAFT HEINZ -4.6% Q3 EPS 44c vs 62c est, revs $6.36B vs $6.7B est
MEN’S WAREHOUSE -44% cuts Q3 prelim EPS view to $1.75-$2.00 vs prev $2.70-$2.90 and $2.78 est, multiple downgrades
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL +2% upgraded at JP Morgan & TD Securities
MONSTER BEVERAGE +13% Q3 84c vs 81 est, revs $756.6M vs $733.2M
SHAKE SHACK -1.9% Comps +17.1%, est 10.4%; Sees FY Revs at top end
PRICESMART +1% reports Oct comps +3.2%
SERVICEMASTER -30bps prices 29m share at $34/shr
SIGNET JEWLERS -1% assumed overweight at JP Morgan
SOUTHWEST +20bps reports Oct traffic +10.8%, reaffirms Q3 RASM view
TRI POINTE +5.7% Q3 31c vs 23 est, revs $642.4M vs $559.5M est, reaffirms FY guidance
WEIGHT WATCHERS +36% Q3 39c vs 29 est, revs $273.3M vs $266.5M est, sees FY EPS 64c-74c vs prior 57c-72c and 67c est

CONCHO RESOURCES -1.8% added to Credit Suisse’s US and Global Focus List
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES +3.1% upgraded at Wunderlich
EOG RESOURCES -1.7% Q3 revs $2.17B vs $2.30B est, guides FY Crude Oil and Condensate Volumes (MBbld) 282.7 – 285.7
FIRST SOLAR +2% initiated outperform at Macquarie
MARATHON OIL -4% removed from Credit Suisse’s US and Global Focus List
SUNPOWER +4.7% initiated outperform at Macquarie

EQUITY COMMONWEALTH -3.5% Q3 EPS 18c revs $159.2M , downgraded at Stifel
GREEN DOT CORP -9% downgraded at BTIG
PROGRESSIVE -1.2% downgraded at Credit Suisse
WILLIS GROUP -2.7% Tower Watson deal, downgraded at Deutsche Bank

ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS -12% Q3 (39c) bs (40c) est, downgraded at Piper Jaffray
ASTRAZENECA -1.5% paying $90/share for ZS PHARMA +40%, $2.7bn in cash.
CELLDEX +10% Q3 EPS (32c) vs (35c) est
CIGNA +30bps Q3 $2.28 vs $2.19 est, revs $9.39B vs $9.50B est
CLOVIS ONCOLOGY -4% Q3 ($2.62) vs ($2.10) est, CFO to retire
HORIZON PHARMA +22% Q3 70c vs 41c est, revs $226.5M vs $193.2m, sees FY revs $750-760M vs prior $660-680M & $683.2M est
HUMANA -1% Q3 EPS $2.16 vs $2.13 est, revs $13.36B vs $13.55B est, reaffirms FY guidance
LEXICON PHARMA +24% Q3 (34c) vs (36c) est

PENTAIR -3.6% reaffirms Q4 & FY guidance
PROGRESSIVE WASTE SOLUTIONS -1.6% initiated underperform at Credit Suisse
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES unch completes sale of Sikorsky to LOCKHEED MARTIN, reaffirms guidance

ARISTA +14% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat. Sees FY Revs $238-242m, est $229m. Sees GM 62-65%, est 64.7%.
CDW -5.7% receives request for documents from the SEC
CYBERARK -4% Q3 EPS/Revs Solid, raised Q4 EPS/Rev guidance
DISNEY +2.4% Q4 EPS $1.20, est $1.14. Revs $13.51bn, est $13.55bn.
DREAMWORKS +15% Q3 EPS 2c vs (9c) est, revs $259.2M vs $200.7M est
ECHOSTAR -1.3% Q3 32c, revs $760.9M vs $797.6M est
LIBERTY GLOBAL +1% Q3 revs $4.60B vs $4.55B
NEWS CORP -3% Q1 5c vs 6c est, revs $2.01B vs $2.08B est
NVIDIA +14% Good Beat and Raise, upgraded at MKM Partners
QORVO +23% Sees Q3 EPS/Revs at top end
SKYWORKS +7% already pre announced; Q1 guide ahead TAKE-TWO +60bps Q2 EPS/Revs Beat, guides FY EPS higher, Revs inline
SPRINT -3% offers year of Amazon prime to qualifying Samsung devices, downgraded at HSBC
SYNOPSYS +1.4% acquires private Canadian software company Protecode
TABLEAU SOFTWARE +21% Q3 14c vs 7c est, revs $170.8M vs $157.6M est, guides FY revs $645-650M vs prev $617-627M and $631.6M est
TAKE TWO +3.5% Q2 EPS/Rev Big Beat, raised FY EPS.
TRIPADVISOR -7% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss, multiple downgrades
TRUECAR +38% Q3 (3c) vs (5c) est, revs $72.4m vs $66.2m est, guides fy revs $260.2-261.7M vs prior $252-258M and $254.2M est
VARONIS +9% Q3 EPS (10c) vs (17c) est, sees Q4 13c-16c vs 16c est
VIMPELCOM -5% Q3 (57c)
YOUKU +7% to be acquire by ALIBABA for $27.6/ADS

AMEREN -3% Q3 $1.41 vs $1.30 est, revs $1.83B vs $1.78B est, guides fy $2.55-2.65 vs prior $2.45-2.65 and $2.56 est
DUKE ENERGY -5% Q3 adj EPS $1.47 vs $1.52 est, sees FY $4.55-4.65 vs prior $4.55-$4.75, upgraded at BMO Capital

Next week Earnings and Eco highlights…..

MON: Dish, Horizon Phamra ID, Kite Pharma, Priceline, Whitewave, ZS Pharma
TUE: Cummins AD, DR Horton, Juno, McDonalds IM, PTC ID, Rockwell Auto; CSFB Health/Fins WFC TMT Conf; NFIB Small Biz
WED: Macy’s; CSFB Healthcare, WFC TMT Conf
THU: Applied Materials, Cisco, Eros, Fossil, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, SunPower AD, Viacom, WW Grainger AM; MS TMT Conf; JOLTS Jobs
FRI: JC Penny, Reynolds ID; Retail Sales, PPI, Michigan Sentiment

Have a great weekend.