Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.27% (2109.8), D +0.50% (17918.2), N +0.32% (4719.1), CL1 +3.34% (47.68), Copper +0.69% (233.50), Gold -1.38% (1118.15) 10YrYld +0.04 (2.2141), DXY +0.26% (97.19), Vix +2.76% (14.54).

More of the same today, mean mean reversion; Eminis rallied 1% intraday, fading into close. S&P +20bps from the Euro close. Most Short +1.3%. Overall volumes +9% DoD and 7% above 20d ave. DXY back above 97, EUR 1.0964. 10yr breaks above 100dma, grinding higher throughout the session; 2.21% last. Oil testing $48 supporting a lot of today’s move, API at 4:30pm; XLE +2.6% breaking October highs. Gold heading back to October lows. EEM +1.3%, EWZ +5.7%. On Earnings; PIONEER NAT +6.6%, EMERSON +2.7%, HYATT -1.3%, VULCAN -2%, KELLOGG -3.6%, AIG -4.4%, ARCHER DANIELS -6.8%, MARTIN MARIETTA -8.5%, AVIS -11%. ACTIVISION +3.6% rallies to yet another all time high following the $5.9bn acquisition of KING DIGITAL +15%; Neil positive on the deal, ATVI host Analyst Day on Friday, we remain Buyers. APPLE +1.2% breaks 200dma supported by positive sell side commentary. Autos in focus as October sales hit’ FCAU -1.6% at GM +60bps beat expectations while FORD +40bps fell a little short; BMW continues to hold small ytd lead over Mercedes at premium end. VW ADR (hit 6.5% from Euro close) as co said economic risks of C02 irregularities about €2bn, risk remains to downside. Goldman hosting Industrials conference Wed/Thu, plenty big names speaking; EMERSON the latest name to be given a pass for cutting guidance. Elsewhere; Earnings expected from AGN, CF, FB, FEYE, FOXA, MET, QCOM, TWX. Employment data big focus for the week, ADP tomorrow, NFP Friday.

OUTPERFORMERS: Explorers +3.2%, Oil Services +3.2%, Drillers +2.8%, Solar +1.5%, Retail +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Real Estate -1%, Builders -1%, Insurers -60bps, Staples -50bps, Gold Miners -50bps

COMMODS: Gasoline +4.7%, WTI +3.5%, Sugar +2.7%, Ally +1%, Copper +70bps, Nat Gas +35bps, Silver -90bps, Gold -1.7%

ECO: ISM New York 65.8, est 45.7. Factory Orders -1%, est -0.9%. Total Vehicle Sales 18.12m, est 17.7m. Domestic 14.14m, est 14.00m.

AFTER HOURS:

CBS -1.5% Q3 mixed, Cable Revs 9% Miss
CERNER -10% cuts Q4 EPS/Rev guidance
ETSY -7% Q3 EPS/Revs Light
HERBALIFE -3% cuts FY16 EPS guide
TESLA +7% relief, EPS loss 2c better, Revs inline and deliveries at top end
US STEEL -3% Miss and Cut
ZENDESK +10% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat, FY Rev guide at upper end
ZILLOW +5% Revs inline, EBITDA ahead
ZYNGA +40bps disappointing guide

ACTIVE TODAY:

CONSUMERS
ALTRIA -4.5% downgraded at RBC Capital
AMERICAN EAGLE +8% confirms acquisition of Tailgate Clothing Company, raises guidance EPS to $0.31 from previous $0.28
ARCHER-DANIELS -7% ethanol margins shrink along with corn exports
AVIS BUDGET -11.5% q3 miss, cuts fy view
FIAT CHRYSLER -1.6% Oct Sales +15%, est +13%
FORD +30bps Oct Sales +13%, est +14%.
GENERAL MOTORS +50bps Oct Sales +16%, est +12%.
HYATT -1.3% Q3 EPS 30c, est 26c.
KELLOGG -3.5% Q3 EPS 1c Beat, Revs 3% Miss. Europe weak. Remain on track for this year and next.
MOBILEYE +2.6% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat, guides FY revs $238-240M vs. prior $235-239M and $237.8M est.
NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE -5% Q3 EPS $1.35 vs $1.34 est, guides FY EPS $2.85-2.90 vs prior $2.80-2.90 and $2.89 est.
OFFICE DEPOT +30bps earnings in line, revs $3.69B vs. $3.72B est
RALPH LAUREN +3% initiated positive at Susquehanna
RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS -8% Q3 earnings beat, comps +3.5% vs +3.3% est, guides FY comps +2.5% vs 3.1% est.
REYNOLDS AMERICAN -4% downgraded at RBC Capital
SERVICEMASTER -4% Q3 earnings and revs beat, guides FY revs $2.58-2.59 vs. prior $2.57-2.59 and $2.59B est.
TATA MOTORS +1% upgraded at Bernstein
TEXAS ROADHOUSE +3% Q3 eps misses but comps beat

ENERGY
BP +2.6% upgraded at Evercore
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY +2.2% downgraded at Bernstein
CHEVRON +3% upgraded at Evercore
COBALT INTERNATIONAL ENERGY +10% Q3 EPS ($0.12) vs. ($0.17) est.
CONSOL ENERGY +4.9% downgraded at Deutsche Bank
DIAMOND OFFSHORE +6.3% upgraded at IBERIA, downgraded at Fearnley
EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL -2.1% Q3 EPS $0.62 vs. $0.60 est, revs $1.65B vs. $1.79B
EXXON MOBIL +1.8% upgraded at Evercore
GULFPORT ENERGY +1.4% reinstated Buy at Jefferies
NORTHERN TIER ENERGY +2.8% Q3 adj EBITDA $173.3M
PIONEER +6.6% increased FY production growth guidance to 11% from previous 10%

FINANCIALS
AIG -4.4% Q3 misses low end of estimates, sees further job cuts
BLACKROCK +1.1% receiving $87B of client assets from Bank of America
CIT GROUP -3.2% Q3 EPS $3.61, revs $520.9M vs. $492.1M est.
DUKE REALTY -85bps announces leadership transition, COO to become CEO
HCP -2.6% Q3 adj FFO $0.79 vs. $0.78 est, revs $658M vs. $583.7M est, guides FY Adjusted FFO $3.12-3.18 vs. prior $3.11-3.17 and $3.14 est

HEALTHCARE
ANACOR +5.3% Q3 EPS ($0.37) vs ($0.25) est, revs $24.6M vs. $25.3M est.
ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS -1.8% Q3 EPS ($0.29) vs. ($0.32) est, revs $29.1M vs. $33.6M est.
CAMBREX +6.5% Q3 revs $92.9M vs. $99.6M est, guides fy EPS $2.11-$2.19 vs. prior $1.97-$2.09
HALYARD HEALTH -6.6% Q3 earnings and revenues beat, reaffirms fy rev guidance
LUMINEX +9.2% eps/revs beat, raises fy view
NXSTAGE MEDICAL +13% earnings and revs beat estimates, guides FY revs $332-333M vs prior $324-328M and $327.8M est
TENET HEALTHCARE +4.6% q3 eps/revs beat but mid-point of fy range below estimates

INDUSTRIAL
COGNEX -11.6% downgraded at CLSA
EMERSON +2.7% Q4 EPS/Revs Light.
HARRIS CORP +1.6% Q1 earnings inline, revenues beat, reaffirms guidance
KENNAMETAL -3.3% Sees FY EPS $1.50-1.70, prev $1.70-2.00. Sees FY Revs -10-14%, prev -7-9%.
LOCKHEED MARTIN -80bps receives final regulatory approval needed to close acquisition of Sikorsky
TASER -12.4% Q3 EPS $0.03 vs. $0.14 year-ago, receives order of 2,200 body cameras from San Antonio Police Department.
TOPBUILD +10.6% Q3 EPS $0.50 ex-items vs. $0.47 est.

MATERIALS
HEADWATERS -11.1% Q4 EPS $0.51 revs $272.7M vs. $268.4M est.
LOUISIANA PACIFIC -6.6% Q3 EPS ($0.12) vs. ($0.06) est, revs $464.9M vs. $508M est.
MARTIN MARIETTA -8.5% Q3 EPS/Revs Light. Guides FY EBITDA to lower end
MOSAIC +5.9% Q3 EPS $0.62 vs. $0.53 est, revs $2.11B vs. $2.35B est.
SUMMIT -50bps Q3 EPS 6c Beat, Revs 4% Miss; flags weather in Texas
VULCAN -2% Q3 EPS (Ex-Charges) 95c, est 96c, Revs $1.04bn, est $1.01bn. Gradual recovery ongoing, weather causing bottlenecks, pricing remains strong.

TMT
ACTIVISION +3.6% Buying KING DIGITAL for $18/share, $5.9bn
FITBIT -8.6% q3 eps/revs beat and raises fy rev forecast but selling 14mm shares, half for co./half for hldrs
FRONTIER -6.8% Q3 EPS $0.03 revs $1.42B vs. $1.41B, reaffirms FY guidance
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE -90bps initiated outperform at Wells Fargo, initiated sector weight at Pacific Crest
HP +3.3%rated outperform at Bernstein
KING +15% to be acquired by Activision Blizzard for $18/shr
MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL +5.9% Q3 earnings beat, guides FY EPS $4.45-4.50 vs. prior $4.35-$4.45 and $4.42 est.
NVIDIA -70bps downgraded at Needham
QUALYS -90bps q3 beats but cuts fy revs outlook,
RED HAT +90bps upgraded at Deutsche Bank
VISHAY +7.1% Q3 earnings and revenues beat estimates.

UTILITIES
ALLETE +1.7% Q3 earnings and revenue beat estimates
NORTHWEST NATURAL GAS -1.3% Q3 EPS ($0.24) vs. ($0.33) est.
SEMPRA +2% Q3 earnings beat, revs miss, guides FY $4.95-$5.15 vs. prior $4.60-$5.00 and $4.85 est.