Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.48% (2079.4), D -0.52% (17663.5), N -0.47% (4648.8), CL1 +0.69% (46.38), Copper -0.26% (231.50), Gold -0.34% (1142.11) 10YrYld -0.03 (2.1439), DXY -0.33% (96.97), Vix +3.15% (15.07).

The S&P closed down 40bps from the European close drifting off the day’s highs over the last 2hrs before coming for sale more aggressively over the last 10min. Small 5% uptick in volume for the last day of the month to 7.4bln shares moving just back above the month’s avg of 7.1bln. Dollars traded up 12% to $308bln about 10% above avg. Pretty even action with down volume edging up volume 55-45.

Stocks limped in a bit to the end of October but nonetheless post an 8.3% gain for the month, though that didn’t always seem to have the feel of easy money out there. Today rates backed up slightly after a strong move this month. The December Fed mtg still being priced for a 50% chance of a move despite not a whiff of inflation in any economic data today. The Dollar similarly off a touch today but holding its move for the month which like rates essentially came over the last 2 weeks. Crude about where it started October with a decent 75bps move today helped by 9th consecutive weekly fall in US rig counts. Banks stood out to the downside today under pressure on a potential $120bln shortfall under the Fed’s TLAC’s plan. Single stock standouts on earnings: FIRST SOLAR +12%, LINKEDIN +11%, BIDU +10.9%, ABBVIE +10.1%, EXPEDIA +7.3%, DECKERS OUTDOOR +7.1%, PHILLIPS 66 +3%, AB INBEV +1.4%….AARON’S -26.5%, SOLAR CITY -22.1%, RUCKUS WIRELESS -12.5%, BOSTON BEER -10.4%, ELECTRONIC ARTS -5.3%, CVS HEALTH -4.8%, COLGATE -4.2%, NEWELL RUBBERRMAID -2%. List of next week’s highlights below. US clocks “fall back” overnight Saturday night. Happy Halloween!

OUTPERFORMERS: Drillers +3.1%, Dept Stores +2.3%, Homebuilders +1.4%, Autos +1.3%, Metals/Mining +1.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2.2%, Coal -2.1%, Solar -1.8%, Banks -1.7%, Household Products -1.6%

COMMODS: NatGas +2.6%, Gasoline +1.9%, Cotton +1.6%, Wheat +1.4%, Cocoa +1.2%…..Nickel -2.1%, Lean Hogs -1.1%, Aluminum -90bps, Cattle -80bps, Gold -50bps

ECO: Employment Cost Index 0.6% inline, Personal Income 0.1% vs 0.2% est, Personal Spending 0.1% vs 0.2% est, PCE Deflator m/m -0.1% inline, Chicago Purchasing Manager 56.2 vs 49.5 est, U of Mich Sentiment 90.0 vs 92.5 est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
LINKEDIN +11% q3 beats, boots view on demand for recruiting services
EXTREME NETWORKS +4.1% q1 eps beats, q4 range sees upside to current ests
FIRST SOLAR +11.9% q3 revs beat, raises fy eps view
RUCKUS WIRELESS -12.5% small q3 beat but top end of q4 view only matches estimates
CRAY +33.3% q3 eps/revs beat, ’16 revs view better than est
ELECTRONIC ARTS -5.3% q2 earnings beat but fy revs seen only inline, delay on game release
EXPEDIA +7.3% q3 eps/revs beat
NVIDIA +2.5% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
PMC-SIERRA +2.3% new offer from SKYWORKS +3.5% of $11.60/shr from $10.50/shr to thwart MICROSEMI -2.1% who ups bid itself
AUTODESK +25bps view lowered @ OTR Research
BAIDU +10.9% q3 beat, $2bln b/b
TRIMBLE NAVIGTION +21.4% q3 beats, q4 midpoint below est but u/g @ Robert Baird
DREAMWORKS -7.8% d/g @ BofA/Merrill

CONSUMER
DECKERS OUTDOOR +7.1% q2 beats, boots forecast
STARBUCKS +11bps q4 inline but q1 view slightly below est on employee, technology costs
LIVE NATION +85bps q3 eps & revs beat
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR +2% q3 eps, revs beat raises fy view esp bringing up low-end
BOSTON BEER -10.4% q3 revs beat but lowers fy outlook on competition
COLGATE -4.2% q3 eps beat, revs light, but difficulty giving dollar guidance
NEWELL RUBBERMAID -2% q3 beats but brings down high end of fy revs range
AB INBEV +1.4% q3 good organic revs
AARON’S -26.5% q3 eps/revs miss, cuts fy outlook
CHOICE HOTELS -1.5% q3 inline but midpoint of fy guide now below est
BLOOMIN’ BRANDS -2.1% outlook cut @ OTR Research

HEALTHCARE
VALEANT -15.9% cutting ties with Philidor, Ackman defends, new negative report teased @ Citron
MYLAN -3.7% q3 eps beats but revs miss
ABBVIE +10.1% q3 eps/revs beat, upbeat view on growth prospects
CVS HEALTH -4.8% q3 earnings just inline and guidance surprises as touch light given co. moves for growth

FINANCIAL
LENDING CLUB +4.1% q3 revs beat, sees q4 revs above est
CITIZENS FINANCIAL +80bps RBS selling remaining stake
FIRST NIAGARA -30bps officially to be acq’d by KEYCORP for $4.1bln
MONEYGRAM -10bps q3 eps/revs beat
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK -2% prices secondary to fund prev announced acq
GENWORTH -10.3% q3 miss, mgmt sees limited short-term fixes

TRANSPORTATION
YRC WORLDWIDE ­+31.8% q3 beats on eps & revs

CAPITAL GOODS
SOLAR CITY -22.1% q3 loss wider than estimates, cuts view of installations
EATON +3% q3 inline, q4 midpoint range light of est, boosting restructuring efforts to counteract weakness
ROCKWELL COLLINS -2.5% q4 miss, defense seen flat next year

ENERGY
PHILLIPS 66 +3% q3 beats on lower costs
EXXON MOBIL +60bps q3 beats on strength of refining
CHEVRON +1.1% q3 beats, further job & spending cuts

NEXT WEEK EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS:

Mon Am: CLOROX, ESTEE LAUDER, VISA
Mon Pm: AIG, TENET HEALTHCARE

Tues Am: ARCHER-DANIELS, DISCOVERY COMM, KELLOGG, MARTIN MARIETTA, VULCAN MATERIALS
Tues Pm: ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, CBS

Wed Am: 21ST CENTURY FOX, ALLERGAN, MICHAEL KORS, REGENERON, TIME WARNER
Wed Pm: FACEBOOK, MARATHON OIL, METLIFE, QUALCOMM, TRANSOCEAN, WHOLE FOODS

Thurs Am: APACHE, CELGENE, ENDO INT’L, MOLSON COORS, RALPH LAURENThurs Pm: MOHAWK, NEWS CORP, NVIDIA, SKYWORKS, WALT DISNEY

Fri Am: CIGNA, HUMANA, LEUCADIA NAT’L