Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.04% (2089.4), D -0.13% (17755.8), N -0.17% (4670.8), CL1 +0.26% (46.06), Copper -1.71% (232.20), Gold +0.01% (1146.03) 10YrYld +0.07 (2.1725), DXY -0.56% (97.21), Vix +1.95% (14.61).

The S&P closed inline with levels at the European close only briefly turning positive in the last half hour of the day and remaining in less than a half percent range all day. Post-Fed volumes light falling 18% to under 7bln shares back below avg of 7.1bln. Dollars traded off in similar proportion to $272bln, $10bln below est. More than 60% of volume printing to the downside on the day.

Stocks as a whole not offering up a ton today with the S&P essentially unch’d. In the context of yesterday’s strong move after the Fed the optimist sees gains consolidated while the more skeptical view notes a lack of follow-through. Where there was follow-through was in rates with the 10 year yield surging to over 2.17% breaking above end of September levels to the highest in close to six weeks. The dollar did not want to follow rates today though with the DXY actually off a bit but easily still holding the majority of yesterday afternoon’s gains. Odds of a December rate increase have now risen to 50%, and as action, for now, seems as likely as it’s been at any point this year Gold -2.6% and Silver -4.4% led what was overall a bit of a pullback in commodities, though crude pretty tame down less than 50bps. While the broad market on the surface was quiet between earnings and some m&a rumblings, several situations getting attention. First technology a laggard hit on a couple sides. NXP Semi off about 20% on the their #s and outlook. Veeco off 12% STMicro -5.8%, and Cavium off 4% in the semi space too on results. SMH etf off 2.6%, down 4% for the move now to lowest in just over a week. On the consumer exposed side of tech GoPro off 15% on their #s and prospects taking Ambarella down 11% with it. As a positive worth noting Apple tacking on another 1% to levels not seen since the end of July and 17% better than August lows. Lots to sort through in healthcare today but no headlines more prominent a possible Pfizer/Allergan tie-up with the former confirming talks. Those stocks off 2% and up 6% on the day, respectively. If gets serious, poised to become a political football in the US potentially complicating a final agreement. IBB off 1% fading in the second half of the day and ending its recent run: mirrors action in #2 component Amgen which while initially higher on results closed -1.3% on the day. The aforementioned rates move seen today prob most seen in homebuilders with disappointing pending home sales contributing as well. Ratio of XHB etf vs the S&P making a low for the move since the late August peak. Small caps giving up 1% today after yesterday’s +3% move, while most shorted names -1.5% giving back the majority of yesterday’s rally and on a weekly basis are inline for a new low at the lowest since summer 2010.

OUTPERFORMERS: Refiners +2.8%, Media +1.2%, Explorers +80bps, Healthcare Equip/Services +70bps, Transports +60bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -3.7%, Homebuilders -3.6%, Coal -3.3%, Semis -3%, Autos -2.4%

COMMODS: Wheat +1.8%, Corn +1.1%, Coffee +1%, Aluminum +50bps, Nickel +25bps…..Silver -4.3%, Lean Hogs -3.1%, Gold -2.5%, NatGas -1.8%, Copper -1.7%

ECO: Initial Jobless Claims 260k vs 265k est, GDP Annualized q/q 1.5% vs 1.6% est, Consumption 3.2% vs 3.3% est, Pending Home Sales m/m -2.3% vs 1% est

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

DECKERS OUTDOOR +14.1% q2 beats, boots forecast
LENDING CLUB +4.6% q3 revs beat, sees q4 revs above est
YRC WORLDWIDE ­+15.5% q3 beats on eps & revs
STARBUCKS -2.6% q4 inline but q1 view slightly below est on employee, technology costs
FIRST SOLAR +10% q3 revs beat, raises fy eps view
SOLAR CITY -18.6% q3 loss wider than estimates, cuts view of installations
RUCKUS WIRELESS -5.7% small q3 beat but top end of q4 view only matches estimates
LIVE NATION +7.6% q3 eps & revs beat
LINKEDIN +10% q3 beats, boots view on demand for recruiting services
EXTREME NETWORKS +5.8% q1 eps beats, q4 range sees upside to current ests
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR q3 eps, revs beat raises fy view esp bringing up low-end
CRAY +20% q3 eps/revs beat, ’16 revs view better than est

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
ARRIS GROUP -5.6% q3 revs miss, sees q4 40-45c vs 60c est
CIRRUS LOGIC -4.1% q2 eps/revs beat, q3 revs seen above est
F5 NETWORKS -9.3% q4 beat but q1 seen below street
GOPRO -15.2% q3 eps/revs miss, guidance not until call
INVENSENSE +11% q2 small eps/revs beat
PAYPAL -1.7% q3 eps beats, fy view midpoint inline w/ est, user growth not as good as hoped
SUNPOWER +11.1% q3 profit on adj basis vs b/e est, revs better
YELP +4% revs beat, raises fy revs view
CAVIUM -3.9% q3 inline but q4 eps/revs below est
VEECO -12.3% q3 revs miss, q4 forecast dissapointing
L-3 COMM +2.2% q3 narrower loss than expected but revs miss
TIME WARNER CABLE +3.6% eps beat on cable subs
STMICRO -5.8% q3 miss, reducing q4 manufacturing on softer demand
FAIRCHILD -5.6% STMicro says no plans to pursue
NOKIA +10.2% q3 small eps beat/revs light, raises fy outlook on networks unit
NXP SEMI -19.7% headline q3 # beats, but sees q4 revs sequentially lower
3D SYSTEMS -5.3% CEO departs
SONY -3% q2 returns to profitability but misses op profit est
WESTERN DIGITAL +45bps q1 eps and revs both below est
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS +5% q3 beats on subscriber gains

HEALTHCARE
AMGEN 11.3% q3 eps/revs beat, raises fy guidance
VARIAN MEDICAL +1.8% q4 small beat but q1 range below street
VERTEX +5% q3 loss narrower than expected, strong revs
AFFYMETRIX -7.9% q3 revs miss while eps beats
HEALTHSOUTH -1.7% q3 miss, lowers fy15 eps view
QIAGEN -8.4% q3 eps/revs miss
MEAD JOHNSON +3.8% clear beneficiary of removal of China 1 child policy
ABIOMED -28.6% beats and raises but profit taking on slowing growth rate
IMS HEALTH -9.5% q3 earnings beat but revs miss
AETNA +3.4% q3 beat and raise
NOVO NORDISK -6.7% q3 beats but competition concerns
SMITH & NEPHEW -5% q3 revs slight miss, still sees f/x headwinds, $275mm acq
PFIZER -1.9% said to make prelim approach to buy ALLERGAN +6%
ZIMMER BIOMET +7.2% q3 beats, raises view, reinstates b/b
MCKESSON +2.1% q2 beat and a raise
VALEANT -4.7% CVS terminates Philidor RX from pbm network

CAPITAL GOODS
OSHKOSH -9.6% q4 miss
DELPHI -7.1% q3 inline but cuts forecast
BORG WARNER -8.7% q3 beats but trims top of forecast

CONSUMER
BUFFALO WILD WINGS -17.3% q3 miss, cuts fy view
HANESBRANDS +14.7% q3 beats, raises fy view
LIFELOCK +43.9% q3 beats, raises fy view, settlement on false advertising claims, over 15% short-interest
O’REILLY +4.9% q3 beats, revs inline, boots fy eps view above est
MGM RESORTS +4.8% q3 beats, creating reit
GNC -26.9% q3 miss and reduces forecast
CARTERS -1.4% q3 revs beat, sees q4 sales lower
HARMAN INT’L +2% q1 eps/revs beat
FOSSIL -1.1% negative mention at OTR Research

FINANCIALS
WORLD ACCEPTANCE +9% puts up q2 profit
SANTANDER CONSUMER -15.6% q3 beats but concerns on charge-offs
DEUTSCHE BANK -8% investors unimpressed w mgmt plans so far
BARCLAYS -7% cuts profit tgt
ASTORIA FINANCIAL -7.7% to be acq’d in $2bln deal by NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK -12%
MASTERCARD +50bps q3 eps beats, consumer spending trends positive
PIPER JAFFRAY -11.5% q3 miss
FIRST NIAGARA -4.2% said to be in talks to be acq’d by KEYCORP -3.7%

MATERIALS
INTERFACE -16.6% q3 revs miss
SHERWIN-WILLIAMS +4.6% q3 eps beat, raises low-end of fy view
BUNGE -6.4% q3 eps and revs miss

SERVICES
MONSTER WORLDWIDE -13.9% q3 revs miss, CFO resigns
FTI CONSULTING -23% q3 miss, sees continued headwinds