Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.18% (2090.4), D +1.13% (17779.5), N +0.85% (4678.6), CL1 +6.85% (46.17), Copper +0.11% (236.45), Gold -0.87% (1156.77) 10YrYld +0.06 (2.0956), DXY +0.71% (97.59), Vix -7.71% (14.24).

The S&P closed up 50bps from the European close at the the highs of the day and up 1.3% from the post-Fed lows at 2:15pm. Volume rising 15% to 8.3bln, 1bln more than avg. Dollars traded up similarly to $326bln, $45bln more than avg. Close to 80% of volume printing to the upside today.

Solid rally into the Fed, we gave it all back after the Fed…and then we closed on the high! Hawkish skew to the statement, trying to get closer to Dec raise but remain data dependant. Are we going back to thoughts pre September meeting that rate rise is good for the market? Lots of big moves out there again / positioning pain. S&P +8% in October, highest volume day of the month. Small Caps reverse recent weakness, Russell +2.7%. Most Short +2.7%. Oil squeeze supportive, hitting $46 intraday and not falling on the USD rally, DOE Inv Build lighter than expected; XLE +2.2%. DXY +80bps, breaking out and 10yr testing 2.1%. Euro hits 1.09; EM FX continues to roll. GDX sees 7% swing. Banks being bought; KRE +3.9% / XLF +2.5%. Utils/Staple hit; XLU -1.1% / XLP -60bps. Earnings highlights; LEVEL 3 COMM +10%, BOSTON SCI +9%, TIMKEN +6%, NORTHRUP GRUMMAN +6%, GILEAD -3%, FERRARI -4%, HERSHEY -6%, AKAMAI -17%. APPLE +4% saw mixed reviews as you would expect, solid numbers vs low expectations, tough comps ahead; prefer exposure through ARM +2%. TWITTER -1.5% rallied +13% through the session, just when you think things couldn’t get any worse…..continue to favor FACEBOOK +50bps, another new high today. In M&A; WALGREENS -11% confirms RITE AID -7% acquisition, $9/share with $17.2bn enterprise value, set to close in H216. Plenty of noise elsewhere; STARWOOD +6%, MAXIM +9% the most interesting. AIG +5% Ichan pushing for co to split into 3.

OUTPERFORMERS: IT Security +4%, Regional Banks +3.9%, Inv Banks +3.3%, Oil Services +3.3%, Drillers +3.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Utils -1.1%, Gold Miners -1.1%, Airlines -1%, Staples -50bps, Transport -20bps

COMMODS: WTI +5.3%, Gasoline +4%, Ally +50bps, Copper -50bps, Gold -90bps, Corn -90bps, Soybeans -1%, Nat Gas -2.7%

ECO: FOMC unch

AFTER-HRS NEWS/MOVES:

AMGEN +1.3% q3 eps/revs beat, raises fy guidance
ARRIS GROUP -8.5% q3 revs miss, sees q4 40-45c vs 60c est
BUFFALO WILD WINGS -14.7% q3 miss, cuts fy view
CIRRUS LOGIC +4.4% q2 eps/revs beat, q3 revs seen above est
F5 NETWORKS -6.1% q4 beat but q1 seen below street
GOPRO -14% q3 eps/revs miss, guidance not until call
HANESBRANDS +12% q3 beats, raises fy view
INVENSENSE +3.7% q2 small eps/revs beat
LIFELOCK +39% q3 beats, raises fy view, over 15% short-interest
O’REILLY +3.6% q3 beats, revs inline, boots fy eps view above est
PAYPAL -4.7% q3 eps beats, fy view midpoint inline w/ est, user growth not as good as hoped
SUNPOWER +3.6% q3 profit on adj basis vs b/e est, revs better
VARIAN MEDICAL -2.8% q4 small beat but q1 range below street
VERTEX +5.8% q3 loss narrower than expected, strong revs
WESTERN DIGITAL -10bps q1 eps and revs both below est
YELP +5.8% revs beat, raises fy revs view

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
APPLE +4.1% # beat low expectations, nothing to panic about but limited viz into next year
TWITTER -1.5% q3 beat but MAUs miss and q4 view below est, was down double-digit percentage
LEVEL 3 +9.3% #s beat and reiterates
TERADYNE +9.7% q3 eps beats, revs in line, making inventory investments for ’16 demand
NCR +7.9% q3 eps beat, raises fy view
BLACK BOX -9.1% cuts fy16 view
AKAMAI -16.7% forecast below est
INFINERA +15.4% eps & revs beat
FITBIT +3.8% positive comments @ Cowen
ARROW ELECTRONICS -3.7% q3 miss on Asia, sees q4 below est
QUALCOMM +1.7% story that Google may replace snapdragon w/ own chips
MOBILEYE +5.2% t/o chatter
MAXIM +9.3% said to be in talks with TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

CONSUMER
HERSHEY -6.5% q3 beats but sees fy at low end of range, no ’16 guide
RITE AID -7% gives back some of yesterday’s 43% gain on deal spec as assumption of debt load leaves less for stockholders in deal officially announced today with Walgreens
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE -10.7% trades down on RiteAid deal details, q4 #s beat
HYATT -1..9% said to be in talks to acq STARWOOD +6.3%
DIAMOND FOODS +8.9% to be acq’d by SNYDERS-LANCE -7.8% for $1.91bln incl debt
HILTON -90bps q3 inline, narrows fy eps view
GENERAC +12.1% q3 beats, fy inline
PANERA BREAD -1.2% beats consensus but not higher end of street estimates, no color on ’16 yest
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS -17.4% q3 all-around miss
FERRARI -3.7% qtr teased in ipo process but fy guidance muted
SONIC AUTOMOTIVE +9.7% q3 beats, fy seen at high end of range
MONDELEZ -40bps q3 beat on the back of cost cuts
AUTONATION +2.4% inline qtr, catches post results u/g @ Stifel
FIAT CHRYSLER -4.5% swings to surprise loss on recall costs
CREE +90bps speculation of activist eyeing
CHICOS FAS +3.4% report Sycamore walking away, names former Wal-Mart exec CEO
CABELLA’S +17.5% Elliott stake

CAPITAL GOODS
NORTHROP GRUNMAN +5.5% q3 #s beat, raises low-end of fy view, wins $80bln contract over rivals
GENERAL DYNAMICS +1.6% q3 beat, private jets/submarines positive outlook
SPX FLOW +3.5% q3 miss, lowers fy outlook on continued customer order deferrals but positive reaction to restructuring plans
CHICAGO BRIDGE & IRON +15.1% selling nuclear unit to Westinghouse
AGCO +9.4% q3 beats, still sees weakness globally but restructuring/favorable taxes helping results
FLIR SYSTEMS -3.7% q3 miss, cuts fy view
FLUOR CORP -3.7% project win

HEALTHCARE
GILEAD -2.6% q3 beats, boots fy sales view, seems some profit taking
BIO-TECHNE -8.9% q1 #s miss
IDEXX -10.2% q3 beats but cuts fy view
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC +9.4% q3 beats, raises fy view
ANTHEM -2% #s beat on memberships but ’16 could be challenge to grow
UNIVERSAL HEALTH +4% revs beat despite eps miss
EXPRESS SCRIPTS +1.8% mixed qtr but sees upside to street for q4, increasing retention rate
VCA -2% eps beat/revs miss
GLAXO +4.3% solid beat, HIV drugs standout, growth prospects remain
ICON +4.1% defended @ SunTrust
INTERCEPT -2.1% study misses endpoint

SERVICES
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON +9.6% q2 eps/revs beat
STRAYER EDUCATION -8.3% q3 revs beat but tepid fall enrollment
CEB +7.6% despite #s miss margins/bookings trends improving
MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL unch’d: said in discussions to sell JD Power unit

FINANCE
KKR -4.3% / CARLYLE GROUP -2.2% 1st loss in 4yrs, ever as public co respectively as public hldgs hit
WILLIS GROUP +1.6% earnings miss but bullish presentation from #2 hldr ValueAct
AFLAC +1.3% posts beat, boosts div
BGC PARTNERS +7.8% inline qtr, boosts b/b, ceo “open” to options to increase shareholder value
AIG +4.9% breakup push from Icahn
TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES +5.9% eps/revs beat
DEUTSCHE BANK +40bps dumps dividend for 2 years to meet tgts

REAL ESTATE
CBRE GROUP +8.9% / JONES LANG LASALLE +7.8% leading real estate services firm both posting solid beats

ENERGY
OCCIDENTAL +5.1% posts loss, highlights asset sales, spending cuts
NAT’L OILWELL VARCO +2.1% eps beat, revs miss, recovers from earlier loss on crude rally
SEVENTY SEVEN ENERGY +7.6% wider than expected loss, high short interest coverign on crude move
US SILICA +22.3% wider than expected loss not as bad as feared after peer warnings
ANADARKO +40bps initially negative on results

MATERIALS
INT’L PAPER +2.1% eps beat, sets ’16 capex plan
TIMKEN +6.3% posts small qtrly beat, accelerating cost cuts
DYNAMIC MATERIALS -17.4% q3 miss, lowers q4/fy views
OWENS-ILLINOIS -4% posts q3 beat but sees fy below street
DUPONT +2.1% Peltz has secretly lobbied board members as recently as last week per press

TRANSPORTATION
CH ROBINSON -2.9% q3 revs miss despite eps beat, no acceleration in October vs prev qtr
NORFOLK SOUTHERN +5.4% q3 beats, small revs beat, sees some pressure lingering

This week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights…..

THU: Altria, Baidu, Baxalta, Biomarin, BorgWarner, Bunge, Carbo Ceramics, CononoPhilips, Delphi, Diebold, EA, Expedia, First Solar, Goodyear, Harman, Johnson Controls, LinkedIn, MasterCard, MGM, Microchip, Postash, Sherwin Williams, SolarCity, Starbucks, Time Warner Cable; Initial Jobless, GDP, Pending Home Sales
FRI: AbbVie, Chevron, Colgate, CVS, Eaton, Exxon, Mylan, Philips 66, Rockwell Collins, Seagate; PCE, Chicago PM, Michigan Sentiment

Have a good evening.