Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.10% (2075.2), D +0.90% (17646.7), N +2.68% (4624.1), CL1 -1.65% (44.62), Copper -1.49% (234.80), Gold -0.13% (1164.53) 10YrYld +0.06 (2.0848), DXY +0.76% (97.11), Vix -0.55% (14.37).

Markets struggled to hold premarket gains but still a big day; Earnings taking the Nasdaq +2.7% back to the highs. Eminis hold 200dma for 2nd day. Overall volumes -5% DoD and 5% above 20d ave. S&P +2.1% on the week. China announced broad rate cuts and long awaited interest rate liberalization – “Profoundly positive” says Dougie (full thoughts on separate note). ASHR +2.7%, FXI +1.7%; ALIBABA +6.5%. DXY +80bps continues to rally (EUR 1.10, JPY 121.41), +2.6% this week; 10yr at week highs, Commods lower. On the week; Gold -1.7%, Copper -2%, Oil -6%. New all time low Nat Gas; SWN. On Earnings; MICROSOFT +10%, ALPHABET +8%, AMAZON +6%, JUNIPER +6%, P&G +3%, WHIRLPOOL -9%, VF CORP -13%, STERICYCLE -19%. Huge day in Large Cap Tech, 15 co’s in NDX making new 52 week highs; APPLE +3.1% back above 100dma report Tuesday. AT&T -65bps posts solid Beat & Raise, DTV integration/cross selling ahead of targets, and as data demand grows co will continue to benefit, oh and there’s 5.5% DY; remain a Buyer. Also on today’s Daily we reiterate Longs UNITED RENTALS and CROWN CASTLE, Short MEAD JOHNSON and UNION PACIFIC. Crazy week in healthcare, seeing a bounce today; HORIZON PHARMA +30% defending, ENDO +10%, VALEANT +6%, ABBVIE +4%. Retail big weak spot today; VF CORP -13% (North Face, Vans) raising inventory/fx concerns, SKECHERS -32% crushed on numbers, talked about sluggish retail environment; FOOT LOCKER -8% back to great level, new low WALMART -1%. Another big earnings week ahead; Apple, Amgen, Baxalta, BorgWarner, EA, Harman, Gilead, MasterCard, T-Mobile. Huge Macro week; New/Pending Home Sales, Durable Goods, PMIs, Fed Meeting (27/28), GDP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Software +3.9%, Biotech +3.3%. Gold Miners +2.5%, Regional Banks +2.4%, Tech Hardware +2.2%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Apparel -2.5%, Utils -1.8%, Retail -1.4%, Real Estate -1.2%, IT Security -80bps

COMMODS: Nickel +80bps, Corn +50bps, Ally +40bps, Gold -10bps, , Copper -1.4%, WTI -1.5%, Sugar -2.5%, Nat Gas -4.6%

ECO: Markit Man PMI 54.0, est 52.7.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Defense +4.5%, Semis +4.3%, Real Estate +3.5%, Staples +3.2%, Industrials +3.1%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Materials -6.5%, Managed -6.2%, Solar -6%, Gold Miners -4.6%, Biotech -2.7%

ACTIVE TODAY:

CONSUMERS
AMAZON +6.2% Q3 EPS 17c, est Loss 13c. Revs $25.36bn, est $24.88bn.
AMERICAN AIRLINES -70bps Q3 EPS 5c Beat, Revs inline. $2bn Buyback.
CABELA -2.5% downgraded at Raymond James
DIAMOND FOODS +6.6% in late stage talks to be acquired by Kellog for $35-40/sh
DUNKIN BRANS +3.4% enters new $125M share repurchase agreement with Goldman, downgraded at Piper Jaffray
GNC +5.8% downgraded at Sterne
LEAR +1.8% Q3 EPS $2.56, est $2.38. Revs $4.33bn, est $4.42bn.
MCDONALDS +1.6% upgraded at Piper Jaffray
MEAD JOHNSON +1.8% enters into $1B share repurchase agreement with Goldman; CSFB dgrade
O’RILEY +1.1% mentioned positively at UBS ahead of Q3 earnings
PROCTOR & GAMBLE +3% Q3 EPS 98c, est 95c. Revs $16.53bn, est $17.28bn.
ROYAL CARIBBEAN +3.5% Q3 EPS $2.84 vs $2.71 est guides fy EPS $4.8 vs prior $4.65-4.75 and $4.71 est
SKECHERS -32% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss
TENNECO +13% Q3 EPS $1.22 vs 1.17 est, revs $2.03B vs $2.05B est
TREEHOUSE FOODS +4.6% in talks to acquire Ralcorp from Conagra
VF CORP -13% Q3 EPS/Revs Light, Div raise inline; guiding FY lower on FX.
WHIRLPOOL -9% Q3 EPS $3.45, est $3.29. Revs $5.28bn, est $5.41bn. Ses FY EPS $12.00-12.50, est $11.98.

ENERGY
BAKER HUGHES -3% Rigs down 1
CABOT OIL & GAS -4.5% adjusted its FY2015 production growth guidance range to 12-14% from 10-18%
DOMINION MIDSTREAM +2.7% increase quarterly distribution by 6.7% to $0.20 to $0.1875
NOBLE CORP -50bps cuts quarterly div by 60% to $0.15 from $0.375
PHILLIPS 66 +90bps discloses CFO will retire effective Dec 31
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY -4.2% reported $2.8bln impairment in third quarter, whole industry already seen $6.5B in writedowns.

FINANCIALS
ASTORIA FINANCIAL +3.3% said to hire Sandler O’Neil to explore sale
CAPITAL ONE +8.3% Q3 EPS $1.98, est $1.95. Revs $5.9bn, est $5.89bn.
CITIZENS FINANCIAL +5.9% Q3 EPS/Revs inline. NIM 2.76%, est 2.77%.
ETRADE +4.6% Q3 EPS $0.33 ex-items vs FactSet $0.29, departure of president
FIRST NIAGRA +80bps earnings in line with estimates.
PROSPERITY BANCSHARES +4% Q3 EPS inline, increases dividend 10%
SOUTH STATE +4.1% Q3 earnings beat estimates.
STATE STREET -3.1% Q3 EPS $1.16 vs $1.24 est
VENTAS -5.6% raises fy to $4.43-4.46 vs prior $4.39-4.45 and $4.45 est.
VISA +85bpe cautious comments from Evercore on VE deal

HEALTHCARE
ATHENAHEALTH +27.5% earnings beat estimates, guides FY revenue to be at or above the mid-point of the $905M – $925M vs $919.8M est.
HORIZON PHARMA +30% corrects misinformation in the marketplace
SHIRE +4.5% Q3 EPS $3.24, est $2.88. Revs $1.66bn, est $1.64bn.
STRYKER -4.2% Q3 EPS 2c Beat, Revs touch light
TEAM HEALTH +10.9% reports prelim Q3 EPS $0.68, revs $899.2m vs $890.9m est, guides FY net rev growth 25-26% vs 24-26% prior

INDUSTRIAL
BARNES GROUP -8% Q3 EPS $0.61 vs $0.64 est, revs $2.91m vs $3.16.1m est, guides FY EPS $2.42-$2.47 vs prior $2.45-$2.55 and $2.50 est
STERICYCLE -4.2% downgraded post warning
WABCO +90bps removed from conviction buy list at Goldman

MATERIALS
LYONDELLBASSELL -40bps Q3 adj EPS $2.80 vs $2.57 est

TMT
ALPHABET +5.6% Impressive Q3 EPS/Rev Beat, $5.1bn Buyback, paid Clicks +23%, est +18.6%.
ALTERA -40bps Q3 EPS $0.20 vs $0.29 est
AT&T -65bps Q3 EPS 74c, est 68c. Revs 39.1bn, est 40.3bn. Sees FY EPS $2.68-2.74, est $2.61
FACEBOOK +2.5% following the other big guns to new all time highs, Google Ad spending supportive
FIREYE -7.3% downgraded at Wedbush
FORTINET -19.3% Q3 EPS 14c, est 12c. Revs $260.1m, est $258.6m
FREESCALE SEMI -2.2% Q3 EPS 54c, est 49c. Revs $1.12bn, est $1.14bn. Q4 Rev guide lower.
JUNIPER +5.8% Q3 EPS 57c, est 53c. Revs $1.25bn, est $1.23bn. Q4 guide to upper end.
LEXMARK +7.2% confirms board has authorized company to explore strategic alternatives
MICROSOFT +10.4% Q1 EPS 67c, est 58c. Revs $21.66bn, est $20.72bn.
PANDORA -35.4% Q3 Light and cuts Q4 guidance; multiple downgrades
STRATASYS -10.4% another warning
THOMSON REUTERS -1.9% Q3 adj EPS $0.52 vs $0.49 est, reaffirms 2015 business outlook
TWITTER +3.9% CEO giving third of his stock back to employees
VERISIGN +6.3% Q3 EPS/Revs inline

UTILITIES
DTE ENERGY Q3 EPS $1.47 vs $1.25 ests, guides FY EPS $4.65-4.91 vs $4.78 est

Next week’s Earnings and Eco Highlights…..

MON: Broadcom, Eagle Materials, First Data, Hartford, PMC-Sierra, Roper Tech, Swift Transportation, Xerox; New Home Sales
TUE: Alibaba, Apple, AK Steel, Anadarko, Baxter, Bristol-Myers, Coach, Comcast, Corning, Cummins, Du Pont, Ford, Gilead, GrubHub, HCA, Infinera, JetBlue, Masco, Merck, PACCAR, Pfizer, Reynolds, Sealed Air, Textron, T-Mobile, Twitter, UPS; Durable Goods, S&P CaseShiller, Comp/Services PMI, Consumer Confidence
WED: AGCO, Amgen, Atmel, AutoNation, Boston Sci, Cavium, Fiat Chrysler, General Dynamics, GoPro, Hershey, Hess, Hilton, Level 3, Marriot, Mondelez, Newmont Mining, Norfolk Southern, Northrup Gruman, NXP Semi, PayPal, Starwood, Tesoro, Valero, Veeco, Vertex, Walgreens, Weight Watchers, Yelp; FOMC
THU: Altria, Baidu, Baxalta, Biomarin, BorgWarner, Bunge, Carbo Ceramics, CononoPhilips, Delphi, Diebold, EA, Expedia, First Solar, Goodyear, Harman, Johnson Controls, LinkedIn, MasterCard, MGM, Microchip, Postash, Sherwin Williams, SolarCity, Starbucks, Time Warner Cable; Initial Jobless, GDP, Pending Home Sales
FRI: AbbVie, Chevron, Colgate, CVS, Eaton, Exxon, Mylan, Philips 66, Rockwell Collins, Seagate; PCE, Chicago PM, Michigan Sentiment

Have a great weekend.