Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.66% (2052.5), D +1.87% (17489.2), N +2.03% (4503.2), CL1 +0.49% (45.42), Copper +0.97% (238.35), Gold -0.12% (1165.80) 10YrYld +0.00 (2.0263), DXY +1.40% (96.36), Vix -13.47% (14.45).

Markets strong across the board; ECB kicked it off; more big moves on earnings. Eminis break above 200dma after hours, 2051. Nasdaq +2%, S&P +1.6%. Overall volumes +16% DoD and 9% above 20d ave. Draghi says ECB will examine degree of stimulus in December. DXY back above key moving averages on EUR weakness. The FX war rumbles on. Look out for QE4 chatter! 10yr 2.02; Banks +1.7%. CAT sees commod prices same in 2016. XLE +1.8% / XME +2.9%. Very little news flow outside of Earnings; LIBERTY GLOBAL -1.7% in discussions with Cable & Wireless, 85p suggested in FT. Our Gaming theme seeing further positives; ACTIVISION +2.9% making another new all time high as creating eSports division; Expect to see financials for this at Analyst Day in 2 weeks (first in 4 years); stay long. LOGITECH +8% also bullish. Back to Earnings, plenty of head scratchers today; EBAY +14%, CITRIX +12%, SOUTHWEST AIR +7%, MEAD JOHNSON +5.5%, DOW CHEM +5%, CATERPILLAR +3%, FREEPORT +60bps, UNDER ARMOUR -5.4%, CEMEX -6.5%, PULTE -6.6%, APOLLO EDU -32%. Semis strong again today; SOX breaks above 200dma, now 24% off August lows. Huge squeeze in TEXAS INSTRUMENTS +12%, Industrials not as bad as feared (see our note yesterday), overall demand remains weak; ARM +3%. MEAD JOHNSON cuts guidance again, call was terrible but of course it rallied; Sell strength. UNITED RENTALS +10% call went well, managing O&G/Capex, see further upside in rentals, FCF remains strong, Buyback ongoing; remain a Buyer. CROWN CASTLE +4.4% Beat and Raise, data demand continues to drive; Stay Long. FDA warnings of liver risk for ABBVIE’S -10% Viekira Pak; support GILEAD’S +6% Sovaldi. VALEANT -7% to host Investor call Monday morning. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from American Airlines, Citizens, Lear, P&G and Whirlpool; Markit Man PMI.

OUTPERFORMERS: Chems +4.2%, Semis +3.9%, IT Security +3.1%, Materials +2.9%, Industrials +2.8%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Managed HC -4.1%, Homebuilders -1.4%, Retail -30bps, Pharma +40bps, Biotech +50bps

COMMODS: Sugar +3.1%, Gasoline +2.3%, Nickel +1.5%, Copper +90bps, WTI +50bps, Gold -20bps, Ally -1.7%, Cotton -2%

ECO: Initial Jobless 259k, est 265k. FHFA House Price +0.3%, est +0.5%. Existing Home Sales 5.55m, est 5.39m; MoM +4.7%, est +1.5%


ALPHABET +11% Impressive Q3 EPS/Rev Beat, $5.1bn Buyback
AMAZON +10% Q3 EPS 17c, est Loss 13c. Revs $25.36bn, est $24.88bn. GM 33.9%, est 33.0%.
AT&T +1.7% Q3 EPS 74c, est 68c. Revs 39.1bn, est 40.3bn. Sees FY EPS $2.68-2.74, est $2.61
CAPITAL ONE +3% Q3 EPS $1.98, est $1.95. Revs $5.9bn, est $5.89bn.
FORTINET -10% Q3 EPS 14c, est 12c. Revs $260.1m, est $258.6m
FREESCALE SEMI Q3 EPS 54c, est 49c. Revs $1.12bn, est $1.14bn. Q4 Rev guide lower.
JUNIPER +1% Q3 EPS 57c, est 53c. Revs $1.25bn, est $1.23bn. Q4 guide to upper end.
MICROSOFT +6% Q1 EPS 67c, est 58c. Revs $21.66bn, est $20.72bn. GM 64.6%, est 66.7%.
PANDORA -16% Q3 Light and cuts Q4 guidance, Apple music anyone?
SKECHERS -25% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss
STRYKER Q3 EPS 2c Beat, Revs touch light
VERISIGN Q3 EPS/Revs inline


ARTIC CAT -24% q2 85c vs $1.00 est, revs $211.16mm vs 236.35 est
BLACK & DECKER +8% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat and guides FY to upper end
CABELA’S -18% q2 71c vs 73c est, revs $926.5mm vs $973.1mm est
CALLAWAY GOLF +8% q3 (4c) vs (8c) est, revs $175.8mm vs 169.3 est, sees fy sales $835-840mm vs $836.6 est
CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES +8% reports of merger with Air China
DR. PEPPER SNAPPLE +6% sees yr core EPS $3.9203.98 saw $3.85-3.93 vs $3.96 est
DUNKIN’ BRANDS -3% q3 52c vs 51c est, revs $209.8mm vs 203.9 est
EBAY +13% q3 43c vs 40c est, been for sale since august, relief no warning
LAS VEGAS SANDS -70bps q3 66c vs 63c est, revs $2.89bln vs 2.96 est
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN +1% initiated equal weight at Morgan Stanley
MCDONALD’S +8% sees Q3 Global Comps +4%, est +1.9%
MEAD JOHNSON +5% Q3 EPS/Revs Missed, announced $1.5bn Buyback. Sees FY EPS $3.33-3.43, est $3.61.
PULTE HOMES -7% q3 33c vs 43c est, revs $1.51bln vs 1.76 est
ROBERT HALF -5% q3 73c inline, revs $1.31bln vs 1.32 est
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES +7% q3 94c vs 92c est, revs $5.32bln, prasm -4% y/y
TRUEBLUE +21% upgraded at RW Baird
TUMI -1% initiated underperform at BofA
UNDER ARMOUR -6% Q3 EPS/Revs Small Beat. Not enough.
UNITED CONTINENTAL +2.5% Q3 EPS 2c Light, Revs inline.

BAKER HUGHES +2% upgraded at Argus Research
CORE LABS -50bps q3 83c inline, revs $197.3mm vs 201.3 est, sees q4 revs $180mm vs $190mm est
KINDER MORGAN -5.5% q3 8c, revs $3.71bln vs 3.78 est; upgraded at Morgan Stanley
PATTERSON-UTI +2% q3 ($1.54), revs $422.3mm
PRECISION DRILLING +4% q3 CAD(30c), revs CAD $364mm vs 375.3 est
SONOCO +1% q3 65c vs 67c est, revs $1.24bln vs 1.29 est, sees q4 59-64c vs 65c est
SUNEDISON -1% completes construction on 2MW solar power plant; said to put its Japanese unit up for sale

AMERICAN EXPRESS -5.5% q3 $1.24 vs 1.31 est, revs $8.19bln vs 8.31 est, sees fy $5.20-5.35 vs 5.49 est
AMERIPRISE +2% q3 $2.35 vs 2.29 est
SL GREEN +2% q3 $1.65 vs 1.57 est, revs $432.1mm vs $424 est
T. ROWE PRICE +6% q3 $1.06 vs $1.14 ests

COMMUNITY HEALTH -36% sees q3 56c vs 91c est, revs sees revs $4.846bln vs $5bln est; multiple downgrades
DANAHER +5..5% earnings beat sees q4 EPS $1.25-1.29 vs $1.28 est
ELI LILLY -20bps q3 89c vs 76c est, revs $4.96bln vs 4.98 est
PERRIGO -5% q3 $1.76 vs 1.72 est, revs $1.34bln vs 1.42 est, narrows fy view, cutting 6% of workforce, $2bln b/b
TENET HEALTHCARE -19% downgraded at Mizuho
VALEANT PHARMA -7% downgraded at BMO

CATERPILLAR +2% already preannounced; Sees FY EPS $4.60, est $4.63
KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION -7% q3 37c vs 36c est, revs $300.1mm vs 311mm est
RAYTHEON +4% Sees FY Revs 23-23.3bn,est $23.05. Sees FY EPS $6.47-6.62, est 6.64.
UNION PACIFIC +4% Q3 EPS 7c Beat, Revs Light. Volumes -6%, est -6.5%
UNITED RENTALS +10% q3 $2.57 vs 2.35 est, revs $1.55bln inline, reits fy rev view
VALMONT +12% q3 $1.39 vs 1.37 est, revs $632.6mm vs 665.2 est
WABCO +2% q3 $1.39 inline, revs $643.6mm vs $655.6mm est, sees fy $5.50-5.60 vs $5.70 est

3M +4% earnings beat, plans 1,500 job cuts as dollar pinches overseas sales
CEMEX -6% Q3 Revs $3.70bn, est $3.91bn. EBIT $439m, est 501.3m. Cuts cement outlook, sees low single digit from mid single
DOW CHEMICAL +5% Q3 EPS 82c, est 69c. Revs $12.04bn, est $12.36bn. Assessing Agro sciences div. Raised Div and increased Buyback.
FREEPORT-MCMORAN +1% Q3 EPS Loss 15c, est 9c. Revs $3.68bn, est 3.97bn.
VALE +5% Q3 Revs $6.51bn, est $6.70bn. EBITDA $1.88bn, est $1.74bn.
WR GRACE -1% q3 $1.37 vs 1.20 est, revs $790.1mm vs 800.7 est, sees fy $4.70-4.80 vs 4.64 est

ACTIVISION +3% creating whole new division dedicated to eSports.
CITRIX +12% q3 $1.04 vs 84c est, revs $813mm vs 786.1 est, sees fy revs $3.24-3.25bln vs 3.23 est
CROWN CASTLE +4% q3 $1.07 vs 1.04 est, sees fy $4.29-4.31 vs 4.27 est
KLA-TENCOR +1.6% downgraded at Piper Jaffray & UBS
LOGITECH +8% saw 54% growth in gaming related peripheral sales.
MELLANOX +6% q3 75c vs 72c est, revs $171.4mm vs 170.2 est
RUCKUS WIRELESS +3% acquires Cloudpath Networks
SERVICENOW +7% q3 15c vs 8c est, revs $261.2mm vs 256.3 est
SIRIUS XM +2% earnings in line, sees 2015 total net subscriber adds ~2m vs 1.8m previous
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS +12% q3 76c vs 67c est, revs $3.43bln vs 3.28bln est, sees q4 64-74c vs 62c est; downgraded at B.Riley
VMWARE +2.5% downgraded at Oppenheimer
WESTERN DIGITAL -2% upgraded at UBS

DUKE ENERGY acquires a majority stake in Phoenix Energy Technologies

Have a good evening.