Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.58% (2018.9), D -0.28% (17168.6), N -0.56% (4413.5), CL1 -2.33% (45.21), Copper -0.36% (235.70), Gold -0.76% (1167.15) 10YrYld -0.04 (2.0263), DXY +0.13% (95.04), Vix +6.03% (16.70).
Markets go out on session low, some punchy moves under the hood. S&P -80bps from the Euro close. Most Short -2.2%. Overall volumes +12% DoD and 6% below 20d ave. DXY +10bps; 10yr gives back yesterday’s move; 2.02%. KRE -1.8% / XLF -70bps. Inventory data sees Oil continue to drift lower. Copper recovers early weakness but downtrend remains. XLE -1.2% / XME -2.8%. On Earnings; GENERAL MOTORS +5.8%, BAKER HUGHES +2.3%, BOEING +1.7%, NORTHERN TRUST -4.3%, YAHOO -5.2%, ST JUDE MEDICAL -9%, VMWARE -19%. Tech given another M&A boost today, SOX gapping up; LAM RESEARCH +1.1% Buying KLAC +19%; WESTERN DIGITAL -4.6% Buying SANDISK +2.1%; would keep XILINX +20bps on the radar. ARM +4.6% remains our top pick in Semis, great numbers today and unique offering which will continue to disrupt. Industrials continue to get a free pass for cutting guidance; ILLINOIS TOOL +50bps rallying nearly 4% from opening weakness; positioning very telling and would suggest we’re close to a bottom. More thoughts on today’s daily. Biotech as volatile as ever, IBB saw 6% swing intraday; BIOGEN +4% raised guidance. Amazing move in VALEANT -28%, stock hit 40% on Citron report, co came out defending and bounced 43% (no typo); Ackman bought another 2m shares; ENDO -13%. FERRARI +5.8% opened at $60 following $52 pricing, but struggled to hold early gains, closing at $; FIAT CHRYSLER -4.6% also came for sale from the RACE open; valuation doesn’t work for us. Another silly earnings day coming tomorrow; AMZN, CAT, CY, DOW, FCX, FTNT, GOOGL, JNPR, LLY, LUV, MCD, MJN, MSFT, PH, PHM, UA, UNP.

OUTPERFORMERS: Autos +1.2%, Defense +1.1%, Homebuilders +30bps, SOX +20bps, Industrials unch

UNDERPERFORMERS: Managed HC -3%, Solar -2.9%, Gold Miners -2.9%, Materials -2.8%, IT Security -2.7%

COMMODS: Soybeans +1.1%, Corn +90bps, Copper -40bps, Gold -90bps, Silver -1.3%, Ally -1.8%, WTI -2.2%, Nat Gas -3.1%

ECO: Mortgage Apps +11.8%, prev -27.6%.


AMEX -3% Q3 EPS/Revs Light, cuts FY EPS guidance
CITRIX +7% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat and raised FY
CORE LABS -1% Cuts Q3 EPS/Rev guidance
CROWN CASTLE raised Div and sees
EBAY +7% Q3 Solid and Q4 guide inline, relief no warning
LV SANDS +2% Q3 EBITDA inline, raised Div
SEAGATE +1% raised Div
SERVICENOW -5% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat, concerns over guidance
TEXAS INS expected
TRACTOR SUPPLY unch Q3/FY broadly inline
UNITED RENTALS Q3 EPS 22c Beat, Revs inline; Reaffirms FY


ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE -11.6% q3 $1.43 vs 1.42 est, revs $1.72bln vs 1.66 est
BOEING +1.7% earnings and revenues beat, sees fy EPS $7.95-8.15 vs $7.70-7.90 previous and $8.05 est
BRINKER +30bps downgraded at Raymond James
CHIPOTLE -5.7% q3 $4.59 vs 4.62 est, revs $1.22bln inline, sees ’16 comps up low single digits
COACH unch upgraded at Morgan Stanley
COCA-COLA -20bps Q3 EPS 1c Beat; Revs 1% Light. Global volume +3%, est +1.8%.
CREE -3.8% q1 21c vs 20c est, revs $425.5mm vs 418.5 est, sees q2 21-26c vs 27c est
DISNEY +20bps to launch subscription streaming in UK next month
DOLLAR GENERAL +80bps upgraded at BofA
FERRARI +5.8% raises $893mm in ipo, $52/shr at top of range
GENERAL MOTORS 5.8% earnings and revs beat estimates
HARLEY-DAVIDSON -2.5% downgraded at JP Morgan
IROBOT -6.7% q3 42c vs 23c est, revs $143.6mm vs 145.6 est, sees q4 53-58c vs 66c est
KIMBERLY CLARK +70bps tops estimates, sees fy EPS $5.70-5.80 vs previous $5.65-5.80 vs $5.74 est
LITHIA MOTORS +3.7% q3 $2.03 vs 1.87 est, revs $2.08bln vs 2.07 est, sees fy $6.89-6.93 vs 6.77 est
LUMBER LIQUIDATORS -4.4% to plead guilty to charges
MANPOWER -3% 3q earnings beat, sees 4q EPS $1.47-1.55 vs $1.52 est
REYNOLDS AMERICAN -60bps downgraded at CLSA
TUPPERWARE +8.4% q3 79c vs 71c est, revs $521mm vs 514.8 est, sees q4 $1.37-1.42 vs 1.47 est
WALGREENS -80bps FTC grants antitrust clearance for transaction with Sprint

AMC NETWORKS -1.8% removed from best idea list at Guggenheim
INTERPUBLIC GROUP +1.5% q3 27c vs 25c est, revs $1.87bln vs 1.82 est
NIELSEN -5.5% q3 69c inline, revs $1.53bln vs 1.54 est
PEARSON -16.7% remains a Structural Short. Cut guidance and likely isn’t enough.
YAHOO -5.2% seeing downgrades post disappointing earnings, BABA spinoff more likely to come in Q116 vs Q415, fundamentals remain weak, no light at the end of the tunnel, downgraded at Mizuho
ZILLOW GROUP -4.1% downgraded at Guggenheim

BAKER HUGHES +2.3% q3 earnings miss sees further pricing pressure
GULFPORT -4.7% initiated buy at Canaccord
HOLLYFRONTIER -90bps downgraded at Citi
WILLIAMS PARTNERS -1.5% reinstated buy at Evercore

CREDIT SUISSE -3.8% q3 CHF45c, revs CHF5.98bln
FIFTH THIRD -2.9% downgraded at Guggenheim
KILROY REALTY -4% downgraded at BofA
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANK -1.3% q3 26c inline
NORTHERN TRUST -4.3% Q3 EPS/Revs inline, NIM 1.08%, est 1.05%. Call at 10am. CREDIT SUISSE ADR -2%, CHF 6.05bn capital hike announced.
S&T BANCORP -2.8% downgraded at Keefe

ABBOTT LABS +1.1% 3q earnings tops estimates, sees fy EPS $2.14-2.16 vs $2.10-2.20 prior
BIOGEN +4% raised forecasts, cuts 11% of jobs
CEPHEID -6.9% downgraded at Needham & Canaccord, upgraded at Evercore
HOLOGIC -60bps downgraded at Craig-Hallum
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +5.6% q3 $5.24 vs 4.22 est, revs $589.7mm vs 580.1 est
KERYX +40bps Baupost reports 34.6% stake
ST JUDE MEDICAL -9% 3q eps 97c inline, sees fy EPS $3.93-$3.95 and revs $5.55-5.57 billion
THERMO FISHER -1.2% q3 $1.80 vs 1.79 est, revs $4.12bln vs 4.10 est, sees fy $7.33-7.41 raising low end
VALEANT -19% target lowered to $50 at Citron
XOMA +5% Novartis licensing deal

CANADIAN PACIFIC -1.9% upgraded at Canaccord Genuity
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS +50bps Q3 mixed, Organic Rev Growth -1.7%, est +0.2%. Sees FY EPS $5.05-5.15, market $5.13.
MANITOWOC -1.7% downgraded at Morgan Stanley
TEREX +3.7% q3 58c vs 62c est, revs $1.64bln vs 1.56 est
WASTE MANAGEMENT +1.4% upgraded at Stifel

CARLISLE +8% q3 $1.56 vs 1.62 est, revs $973.1mm vs $1.03bln est
PACKAGING +5.8% q3 $1.26 vs 1.28 est, revs $1.5bln vs 1.49 est
SYNGENTA +6.1% CEO leaves

ANGIE’S LIST +11.4% q3 b/e, revs $87mm vs 89.6 est, sees fy revs $344-383mm vs $357-363 prior view
ARM +4.6% q3 revs GBP243.1mm inline, eps 7.6p inline, strong royalty growth
EMC -6.3% q3 43c vs 44c est, already preannounced
KLA-TENCOR +18.8% to be acq’d by LAM RESEARCH for $10.6bln
LAM RESEARCH +1.1% Buying KLAC for $10.6bn, 24% premium.
MICRON -3.8% downgraded at BofA
MICCROSOFT -1.2% to buy Israeli cyber-security Secure Island for $100-150M
SANDISK -2.1% upgraded at BTIG
SOLARWINDS +16.2% to be purchased by Silver Lake and Thoma Bravo for $60.10/sh for $4.5B
TWITTER -5.2% downgraded at Morgan Stanley
VMWARE -19.4% q3 $1.02 vs $1.00 est, revs $1.67bln vs 1.66 est, sees q4 $1.23-1.27 vs 1.23 est/revs $1.825-1.875bln vs 1.88bln est
WESTERN DIGITAL -4.6% offering $86.50/share (cash & stock) for SANDISK total equity value of $19bn.
YAHOO -5.2% q3 15c vs 16c est, revs $1bln vs 1.02 est

NORTHWESTERN -1% downgraded at Ladenburg

Have a good evening.