Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.14% (2030.8), D -0.08% (17217.1), N -0.54% (4438.2), CL1 -0.74% (45.55), Copper -0.15% (236.40), Gold +0.50% (1176.59) 10YrYld +0.05 (2.0688), DXY -0.06% (94.87), Vix +5.14% (15.75).

Markets failed to hold early rally. S&P -15bps from the Euro close. Overall volumes inline with yesterday, 18% below 20d ave. DXY shrugs off early weakness; Rates moving higher. Oil holding $46. XME -65bps / XLE +30bps. Earnings Highlights; DOVER +6.6%, UTD TECH +3.9%, EATON +2.2%, TRAVELERS +2.5%, VERIZON +1.2%, LOCKHEED -90bps, VARIAN -4%, IBM -5.8%, HARLEY DAVIDSON -14%. Interesting price from Industrials today, all trading higher on weak numbers, all the negatives priced in now? Remains big underweight. M&A speculation continues to prop up SANDISK +4.4% as WESTERN DIGITAL -7% said to be ready to make cash bid, not a huge surprise following the recent Chinese investment they’ve had, SNDK report tomorrow. INTEL -45bps to invest up to $5.5bn in China chip plant; +ve LAM RESEARCH +3.5% & ASML +30bps, -ve MICRON -11% however they have involvement. APPLE +1.8% catches a rare bid today; Cook talking up music and autos last night; felt like rotation out of ALPHABET -2.8%, FACEBOOK -1.5%. Homebuilders trade well on better data, more to come this week; LENNAR +2.8% remains our top pick. Biotech struggling as pricing concerns hit again, -ve NYT article; IBB -3.2%, HORIZON -20%. TESLA -6.6% new low for move on big volume, negative consumer report the latest excuse to sell. FERRARI (RACE) expected to price tonight, saw some profit taking FIAT CHRYSLER -3.2% ahead, had 30% rally into IPO; reports suggest demand for RACE been very good, pricing above the $48-52 range, we remain concerned about this valuation, will be very interesting to see how this trades tomorrow.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +4%, Drillers +2.3%, Homebuilders 2.1%, Oil Services +1.5%, Regional Banks +1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -3.2%, Pharma -1.9%, Refiners -1.7%, Software -1.1%, Retail -70bps

COMMODS: Gasoline +2.2%, Nat Gas +1.7%, Wheat +1.1%, Gold +30bps, WTI +10bps, Copper unch, Sugar -1.4%, OJ -3.6%

ECO: Housing Starts 1206k, est 1142k; MoM +6.5%, est +1.4%. Building Permits 1103k, est 1170k; MoM -5%, est +0.8%.


CHIPOTLE -3% Q3 Comps +2.6%, est +2.4%. EPS $4.59, est $4.62.
CREE +2% Q2 EPS/Revs Small Beat, Q2 guide to lower end
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +8% Q3 EPS/Revs Bear; GM 69.3%, est 66.1%
IROBOT -5% Cutting Q4 EPS/Rev guidance, citing Japan
YAHOO -1% Q3 EPS/Revs Light and weak Rev guide, enters service agreement with Google


BARNES & NOBLE +2.7% announces new $50M stock repurchase program
BOSTON BEER +7.1% upgraded at Goldman
BRINKER -7.6% earnings & revs beat, guides FY EPS $3.55-3.65 vs $3.60 est.
CALM-MAINE FOODS -3.6% downgraded at Stephens
ETSY +3.7% upgraded at Wedbush Securities
FIAT CHRYSLER -3.2% Ferrari IPO expected to be priced tonight
FRESH MARKET +1.8% plans for strategic review, upgraded at Credit Suisse
HARLEY DAVIDSON -14% Q3 EPS/Revs Miss. Reducing FY Shipment guidance to 265-270k, prev 276-281k.
J.M. SMUCKER -3.3% sees fy16 revs $7.9b vs. $8b prev vs. $7.94b est.
MONDELEZ -1.5% invests $50M in new Nigeria plant.
MONSTER BEVERAGE +5.2% reports MCD testing product in some stores
NEWELL RUBBERMAID -50bps FTC grants antitrust clearance for purchase of Elmer’s
NVR +2.3% Q3 EPS $27.11 vs 26.91 ests.
TESLA -6.6% Disappointing consumer survey
WEIGHT WATCHERS +31% upgraded at Barclays
WHITEWAVE FOODS -7.1% downgraded at Goldman
YUM +1.8% to split China division off into separate company

AMC NETWORKS -6.3% initiated at Cowen
OMNICOM +20bps Q3 EPS/Revs Beat. Organic Growth +6.1%, est +3.8%. NA outperforming.
VIACOM +90bps purchases significant minority stake in DigiTour Media

CARRIZO OIL & GAS +2.4% downgraded at KLR Group
CONOCOPHILLIPS -30bps added to US1 List at BofA Merril Lynch
SCHLUMBERGER +1.9% signs 15 year contract with Energy Recovery

BNY MELLON +2.7% Q3 EPS 3c Beat, NIM 0.98%, est 0.98%
FIFTH THIRD -1% Q3 EPS 5c Beat, NIM 2.89%, est 2.88%.
FIRST DATA +2.6% initiated New Positive at Susquehanna
PROLOGIS +1.1% reports Q3 core FFO inline, guides fy $2.19-2.21 vs prior $2.18-2.22 and $2.20 ests.
REGIONS FINANCIAL +3% Q3 EPS 1c Beat, NIM 3.13%, est 3.14%.
SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL +3.2% upgraded at Nomura Securities, very tight borrow
TRAVELLERS +2.5% Q3 EPS/Revs at Top End. Net Prems written $6.19bn, est $6.12bn.
ZIONS +1.7% Q3 EPS 1c Light, NIM 3.11%, est 3.18%.

ASTRAZENECA -4% downgraded at Credit Suisse
HORIZON PHARMA -20% further drug pricing concerns
PFIZER -1.5% upgraded at Cowen
SHIRE -2.2% initiated as Buy at BTIG
TEAM HEALTH HOLDINGS +19.2% AmSurg proposes offer for $5.17B, rejected
VALEANT -10.4% downgraded at CIBC
VARIAN MEDICAL -4% Sees FY EPS $4.09, est $4.29

CANADIAN PACIFIC +3.5% Q3 EPS C$2.69 ex-items vs C$2.68 ests.
CUMMINS +90bps downgraded at UBS
DOVER +6.6% Sees FY EPS at Lower End; Sees FY Organic Rev growth -9-10%, prev -7-8%.
EATON +2.2% Sees Q3 EPS $0.95-1.00, market $1.01; Sees $300m Rev shortfall
LOCKHEED MARTIN -90bps Boosting Div 10% and Sees FY EPS/Revs at Top End
PACCAR +1.5% downgraded at UBS
PARKER-HANNIFIN +2.1% downgraded at Citi
PENTAIR -1.5% Q3 Mixed, sees FY at Lower End
UNITED TECH +3.9% Sees FY EPS $6.15-30, est $6.29; Sees FY Revs $57-58bn, est 58.83bn. Authorizes $12bn buyback.

CROWN HOLDINGS +3.2% guides Q4 EPS $0.65-0.71 vs. $0.69 est.

APPLE +1.8% Postive comments from CEO, Swiss watch data shows further iWatch disruption
CUBIC CORP +1.3% initiated at BB&T Capital Markets
FITBIT +2.9% Morgan Stanley positive on enterprise demand
FLEXTRONICS +5.3% Sees Q3 EPS/Revs at upper end
IBM -5.8% Q3 EPS ahead but Revs Miss, Hardware dragging. Sees FY EPS $14.75-15.75
PURE STORAGE +2.6% initiated at Jefferies
RAMBUS -28% sees Q4 revs $71m-$77m vs $83.4m est.
SANDISK +4.4% t/o spec ongoing, WESTERN DIGITAL -7% said to be considering all cash offer
UBIQUITI NETWORKS -6% downgraded at Morgan Stanley
VERIZON +1.2% Q3 EPS/Revs Beat. Retail Net Adds 1.21m, est 1.22m. FiOS adds Miss. Consolidated Capex $4.12bn, est $4.24bn.

Have a good evening.