Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.45% (2033.1), D +0.43% (17216.0), N +0.46% (4438.6), CL1 +1.81% (47.21), Copper -0.85% (240.25), Gold -0.59% (1176.13) 10YrYld +0.01 (2.0298), DXY +0.37% (94.73), Vix -4.98% (15.25).

Markets catching a bid over the last 2 hours, earnings remain concerning. S&P +30bps from the Euro close; and closed on week highs +90bps. Overall volumes -8% DoD and 13% below 20d ave. DXY -20bps on the week, remains consensus long. 10yr slipped from 2.08 to 1.98 as rate rise expectations fade. Gold outperformed, +2.2% on the week, testing 200dma. Oil -5% on the week ($47.36), given large part of last week’s rally back, no signs of production slowdown; SCHLUMBERGER -2.2% threw in the towel and cut into 2016, remains avoid/sell. Elsewhere on Earnings; MATTEL +6%, GE +3.4%, HONEYWELL -1.5%, WW GRAINGER -6.3%, KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN -11%, QUANTA SERVICES -29%. Industrials just the latest crop of misses/warnings, there will be more. HONEYWELL cuts FY guidance, expects steady slow growth environment to continue. EMERSON -3.3% orders -16%. TIMKEN -5.7% hit on SKF warning, terrible call. Big week coming up for the space, we saw shorts in XLI ahead. Banks held yesterday’s gains; on earnings COMERICA -1.1%, SUNTRUST +1.2%, FIRST HORIZON -1.2%, no disasters; MORGAN STANLEY +1% report Monday. Biotech held yesterday’s rally, IBB -10bps; RADIUS +5.5% management call taken well. WYNN -1.2% rallied 12% from the open, results Miss, CEO critical of Chinese govt restrictions, Macau VIP -51% YoY; LVS +50bps report Wednesday. Further support for our eGaming theme as ALIBABA +30bps look to Buy balance of YOUKU TODOU +22%, for $3.6bn in cash; ACTIVISION +1.1%. TWITTER +5% Steve Ballmer confirms 4% holding. FERRARI IPO said to be going well, books close Monday 4pm ET, expected to start trading Wednesday. Full details of next week’s earnings/eco below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Social Networks +2%, Refiners +1.1%, Pharma +1%, Staples +1%, Real Estate +1%


UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -3%, Materials -2.6%, Drillers -2.4%, Oil Services -2.4%, Railroads -2.2%


COMMODS: OJ +4.8%, WTI +2%, Gasoline +1.5%, Silver -50bps, Copper -90bps, Nat Gas -1%, Wheat -1.6%, Coffee -6.2%


ECO: Industrial Prod -0.2%, est -0.2%. JOLTS Job openings 5370, est 5580. Michigan Sentiment 92.1, est 89.0.


WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +9.6%, Airlines +4.7%, Solar +3.1%, SOX +2.7%, Biotech +2.5%


WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMES: Railroads -3.2%, Homebuilders -2.8%, Regional Banks -2.2%, Oil Services -1.5%, Retail -1.4%




TWITTER +4.9% Steve Ballmer confirms he owns 4% stake

ADVANCED MICRO -1.5% q3 (17c) vs (12c) est, revs $1.06bln vs $995.9mm est

YOUKU TUDOU +22% $3.6bln non-binding bid from ALIBABA

BOX +8% u/g @ JPMorgan

DISCOVERY -1.3% d/g @ Barclays

SEAGATE -4.5% d/g @ Pacific Crest & Craig-Hallum

T-MOBILE US +1.5% init buy @ Nomura

OMNICOM +70b[s / WPP both u/g’d @ Pivotal

FIREEYE +3.6% cautious comments @ Cleveland Research



PTC THERAPEUTICS +11% recovers from initial losses on trial data as ultimate approval seen @ Oppenheimer & @ RBC

AKARI THERAPEUTICS -30bps files to sell 3.96mm ads’s for hldrs

ATHENAHEALTH -5.3% d/g @ Jefferies

ZAFGEN -51% FDA imposes partial clinical hold on trial

CEMPRA -28% inferior on primary efficacy endpoint in trial

VALEANT +5.2% defended @ UBS

RADIUS +5.5% co. committed to what’s best for shareholders, sees self as attractive asset in investor call



WYNN -1.2% q3 adj ebitda $279.9mm vs 306.8 est, revs $996.3mm vs $1.03bln est

MATTEL +6% q3 71c vs 80c est, revs $1.79bln vs 1.89 est

YUM! BRANDS +4.2% sees China comp sales low single digits negative, appt’s Corvex Mgmt head to board

SPIRIT AIRLINES -15% after investor day d/g’s @ Morgan Stanley @ Raymond James

LULULEMON +2.5% u/g @ Credit Suisse

DECKERS OUTDOOR +30bps p/t lowered @ Piper Jaffray

THE FRESH MARKET +7.8% report founder looking to take private w/ p/e



GENERAL ELECTRIC +3.4% q3 29c vs 26c est, industrial revs $27.9bln vs 28.61 est

HONEYWELL -1.5% q3 $1.60 vs 1.55 est, revs $9.61bln vs 9.85 est

PENTAIR -1.9% d/g @ Stifel

EMERSON -3.3% Sept 3-month trailing orders down 15-20%

GRAINGER -6.3% q3 $3.03 vs 3.06 est, revs $2.53bln vs 2.55 est

QUANTA SERVICES -28.5% sees q3 22-24c vs 45c est

TIMKEN -5.7% under pressure on SKF miss in Europe



COMERICA -1.1% q3 74c vs 70c est

ALLSTATE -60bps d/g @ William Blair

FIRST HORIZON -1.2% q3 29c vs 22c et, revs $288.7mm vs 297.4 est

SUNTRUST +1.2% q3 89c vs 84c est, revs $2.06bln vs 2.05 est

CITI -50bps p/t lowered @ UBS

GOLDMAN +10bps defended @ Oppenheimer

PROGRESSIVE +2.2% q3 net premiums $5.41bln vs 5.29 est

BB&T -1% d/g @ Hilliard Lyons

ITG +6.2% said to name JPMorgan exec as new CEO



OCCIDENTAL -70bps selling North Dakota shale acreage for $500mm

CARRIZO OIL & GAS -1.5% 5.3mm share offering



KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN -11% q3 $1.21 vs 1.22 est, revs $631.9mm vs 642.7 est



PLUM CREEK +40bps d/g @ BofA/Merrill




Next week’s Earnings (there’s a lot more) and Eco highlights….


MON: Genuine Parts, Halliburton, Hasbro, IBM, Lennox, Morgan Stanley, Valeant, Zions; NAHB Housing

TUE: Cree, Dover, Fifth Third, FMC, Harley Davidson, Illumina, iRobot, Lockheed, Omnicom, Pentair, Terex, Travelers, United Tech, Verizon, VMWare, Yahoo; Housing Starts, Building Permits

WED: Abbott Labs, American Express, ARM, Baker Hughes, Biogen, Boeing, Broadcom, Callaway Golf, Coca-Cola, Core Labs, Crown Castle, eBay, EMC, Equifax, GM, Illinois Tool, Interpublic, Kimberly Clark, Kinder Morgan, Lam Research, LV Sands, Northern Trust, SanDisk, St Jude, Texas Instruments, United Rentals, Valmont, Weatherford; Mortgage Apps

THU: Altera, Amazon, AT&T, Athena, Capital One, Caterpillar, Cypress Semi, Dow Chem, Dr Pepper, Dunkin Brands, Eli Lilly, E*TRADE, Fortinet, Freeport, Freescale Semi, Juniper, KLAC, Maxim, McDonald’s, Mead Johnson, Microsoft, Nucor, Pandora Media, Parker Hannifin, Precision Castparts, Pulte, Raytheon, Ryder, Southwest Air, Stanley B&D, Stryker, Under Armor; FHFA Housing, Existing Home Sales

FRI: American Airlines, Citizens Financial, First Niagara, Lear, P&G, Shire, VF Corp; Markit Man PMI



Have a great weekend.