Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.13% (2017.5), D +0.28% (17131.9), N +0.29% (4382.6), CL1 -4.45% (47.42), Copper -0.08% (241.20), Gold +0.59% (1164.08) 10YrYld +0.00 (2.0881), DXY +0.05% (94.86), Vix -5.27% (16.18).

The S&P closed up 15bps from the European close to end the day near the top end of 40bps range on the day. Anemic volumes with the bond mkt holiday, off 25% from Friday to 5bln shares, just 2/3 of avg volume. Dollars traded down similarly to $190bln, $100bln below avg. Despite small gains in the averages, more than 60% of volume to the downside.

Quite session today, markets small up, many taking Columbus Day holiday. S&P +10bps vs Most Short -1.8%. Overall volumes -25% DoD and 32% below 20d ave. VIX down for 10th consecutive session. DXY flat, bond market closed. Big move lower in Oil, testing $47, OPEC output hits 3yr high. XLE -1.3% / XME -3.4%. Dell confirms EMC +1.8% full takeover at $33.15 / share, deal terms hurting VMWARE -8.1% holders. Airlines continue to outperform despite issues over the weekend, SOUTHWEST +3.2%. Banks flat ahead of big earnings week; GOLDMAN +60bps sees upgrade, earnings Thursday. INFOSYS -6.6% cuts guidance on FX, recent results have become something of a minefield in recent qtrs, we continue to favor Cap Gemini. ELI LILLY -8.8% announced the termination of Phase 3 trial of cholesterol drug; supportive REGENERON 4.6%. Reports suggest Volkswagen looking to squeeze suppliers, not a huge surprise; BORWARNER -80bps didn’t react to the headline but is starting to roll following 20% bounce, earnings 10/29. TESLA -2.3% posts 6th consecutive down day, Aston Martin looking to enter market. SABMILLER (pink sheet -20bps) recovered from early weakness; AB INBEV -35bps raised bid to £43.50 but price action would suggest BUD still falling short; MOLSON COORS -3.5%. FORTRESS -3.4% closing down poor performing macro fund. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from CSX, INTEL, JP MORGAN and J&J. Full details below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Airlines +2.3%, Utils +90bps, Regional Banks +80bps, Homebuilders +50bps, Real Estate +50bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Drillers -4.8%, Materials -3.4%, Gold Miners -2.8%, Railroads -1.9%, Solar -1.5%

COMMODS: Coffee +2.5%, Nat Gas +1.5%, Gold +50bps, Silver -5bps, Copper -6bps, Ally -1.1%, WTI -5.1%, Gasoline -5.4%

ECO: nothing of interest


RYDER -6.5% sees $6.17-6.29 vs 6.45-6.55 prior view
JETBLUE -2.1% Sept prelim Prasm + ~1%, Aug -3%


EMC +1.8% to be acq’d by Dell in $67bln deal
VMWARE -8.1% prelim q3 $1.02 vs 99c est, revs $1.67bln vs 1.66 est
INFOSYS -6.6% q2 INR 14.87 vs 14.16 est, revs INR 156.35bln vs 151.62 est, sees fy revs up 6.4-8.4% vs 7.2-9.2% prior view
CTRIP.COM +10bps positive comments @ Piper Jaffray
MARVELL -1.7% d/g @ Nomura
RUCKUS WIRELESS -5.7% d/g @ Piper Jaffray
CAVIUM +15bps /QORVO +1.7% /MELLANOX -15bps seen as possible tgts in Barron’s
MIRCON -70bps positive comments in Barron’s
TWITTER -6.8% reports of looming job cuts
NIMBLE -3.2% seen as possible Cisco tgt post EMC/Dell @ Summit Research & @ Oppenheimer
CITRIX -40bps Dell/EMC deal seen pressuring co to sell @ Oppenheimer
PRICELINE.COM +2.6% positive comments @ Cantor
ENTRAVISION +16.2% u/g @ Wedbush

ELI LILLY -7.8% discontinues development of cholesterol drug
REGENERON +4.6% seen beneficiary of Lilly’s drug failure
CHARLES RIVER +2.1% u/g @ Wells Fargo
SPARK THERAPEUTICS -4.2% positive Phase I data
RADIUS -4.4% positive Phase III data presented

HARLEY DAVIDSON -80bps d/g @ Longbow
MATTEL +60bps positive comments in Barron’s
BUFFALO WILD WINGS -2% d/g @ Raymond Jaomes
DARDEN -65bps d/g @ Raymond James
DINE EQUITY unch’d d/g @ Raymond James
BLOOMIN’ BRANDS +2.9% u/g @ CL King
AB INBEV -40bps lifting SABMiller bid to $103.6bln, press reports still not high enough
MOLSON COORS -3.5% falls as InBev/SAB deal still seems too far apart
MELCO CROWN +5bps u/g’s @ Credit Suisse & @ HSBC

HARRIS +1.7% u/g @ JPMorgan
NORTHROP GRUMMAN +80bps u/g @ JPMorgan
RAYTHEON +75bps u/g @ JPMorgan
PRECISION CASTPARTS +10bps d/g @ Wells Fargo

ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN -15bps d/g @ Keefe Bruyette
RAYMOND JAMES +35bps positive comments in Barron’s from analyst
GOLDMAN SACHS +60bps u/g @ Citi
CITIZENS FINANCIAL +45bps u/g @ Citi
OCH-ZIFF -1.5% d/g @ Citi
WISDOM-TREE -1.5% US Focus List as sell @ Citi

EXXON MOBIL +5bps u/g @ Barclays
MAGNUM HUNTER -37.8% d/g @ RBC
PHILLIPS 66 +40bps $2bln b/b

CELANESE -1.2% d/g @ Goldman
LYONDELLBASSELL -2.9% d/g @ Macquarie
MONSANTO -20bps $3bln accelerated b/b

This week’s Earnings & Eco highlights…..

TUE: CSX, Fastenal, Intel, JP Morgan, J&J; NFIB Small Biz
WED: ASML, Bank of America, Blackrock, Delta, Netflix, Nike ID, Wells Fargo, Xilinx; Retail Sales, PPI, Beige Book
THU: AMD, BB&T, Blackstone, Citigroup, Cypress Semi, Fairchild Semi, Goldman, KeyCorp, LV Sands, Philip Morris, PPG, Schlumberger, UnitedHealth, US Bancorp; Empire Man, CPI, Philly Fed
FRI: Comerica, First Niagara, General Electric, Honeywell, Kansas City Southern, M&T Bank, Parker Hannifin, Progressive, SunTrust, WW Grainger; Industrial Prod, Michigan Sentiment

have a good evening.