Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.92% (2075.8), D -1.17% (17830.8), N -1.19% (4364.0), CL1 +1.17% (45.85), Copper +0.07% (222.60), Gold +1.73% (1267.33) 10YrYld -0.02 (1.8260), DXY -0.66% (93.77), Vix +10.53% (15.16).

The S&P closed down over 1% from the European close (which approx coincided w/ the day’s) highs to close the session just off lows of the day. Volumes up 8% to just under 8bln shares, 1bln above avg. Dollars traded up 8% to $295bln, $50bln above avg. About 2:1 down volume over up volume.

Markets sell off in last 2 hours, big moves under the hood and nearly $50bn of M&A on the table. Eminis -1% vs Most Short -1.2%. Overall volumes +9% DoD and 15% above 20d ave. DXY -70bps makes new closing low for move, driven by the DOJ disappointment, JPY 108.12. Rates continues to slide, 10yr 1.82%; Banks -1.3%. Commods generally better given the USD weakness; no surprise to see Gold lead; Oil hits $46, next stop $50? CONOCO -1% cuts capex 11%. Biggest earnings day of the quarter; FACEBOOK +7%, MEAD JOHNSON +3.5%, FORD +3.2%, BRISTOL MYERS +2.9%, VERTEX +2.7%, COLGATE (QCC) +2.7, CELGENE +1.8%…..BORGWARNER -5.6%, ALEXION -5.5%, SYMANTEC -7%, FIRST SOLAR -8%, SEALED AIR -8.2%, XILINX -8.7%, FIRSTENERGY -10%, HARMAN -13%. Big day for M&A, majority across Healthcare…ABBOTT -7.8% for ST JUDE +25% ($25bn), SANOFI -1.8% for MEDIVATION +8% ($9.3bn), ABBVIE +80bps for Stemcentrx ($5.8bn), COMCAST -20bps for DREAMWORKS +24% ($4bn), HANNESBRANDS +6% for Pacific Brands ($800m), ORACLE -1.3% for TEXTURA +31% ($663m). FACEBOOK (Buy) +7% crushed it, astounding 76% YoY rev growth in mobile advertising; trades on ~30x F12m P/E, an extremely reasonable valuation for 50% growth. RAYTHEON -1.8% seeing a little profit taking off all time highs but another solid set of earnings; Defense had a great quarter and should continue to trade higher as defense spending increases; Stay Long. MICRON (Buy) +70bps has now rallied 13% post Hynix/Samsung capex cuts, should lead to more rational DRAM pricing for this unloved name, down 60% in the last 12m. SYMANTEC -7% we’re stepping off our Buy call following this morning’s warning and CEO departure, too much uncertainty. On today’s note; FB/MA/LOGI/NLFX/MU/CL/SYMC/Oil/Defense. APPLE (Sell) -3% testing Feb lows, Icahn out the name. FIAT CHRYLSER (Sell) +1.1% reports suggest co in talks with Google on technology partnership, history would suggest this is a nothing done. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings from CHEVRON and EXXON.
OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +4.5%, Materials +1.8%, Autos +20bps, Staples unch, Utils -10bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Homebuilders -4.2%, SOX -2.7%, Explorers -2.6%, Solar -2.5%, Tech Hardware -2.5%

COMMODS: OJ +2.8%, Silver +1.7%, WTI +1.5%, Ally +1.4%, Gold +1.4%, Copper +30bps, Cattle -2.6%, Nat Gas -3.6%

ECO: Initial Jobless 257k, est 259k. GDP QoQ +0.5%, est +0.7%.

BIOMARIN -3.6% q1 revs miss
AMAZON +11.7% q1 beat
PANDORA +6.1% q1 loss less than est, revs beat, raises fy view
LINKEDIN +8% q1 beat
GROUPON +2.7% q1 loss less than est
GILEAD -6.2% q1 miss
EXEPDIA +11.2% q1 profit vs est for loss, revs beat
GIGAMON +8.7% q1 beat
JUNIPER NETWORKS -80bps q1 slightly light, sees q2 lower to inline
SKYWORKS -3% q2 inline, q3 view below est
SYNAPTICS q3 miss, q4 revs view below low-end of est
WESTERN DIGITAL -4.3% q3 miss
BAIDU +2.7% q1 eps beat, revs inline


FACEBOOK +7.2% q1 beats, mobile strong
SANDISK +85bps q1 beats
CAVIUM -10.5% q1 inline
PAYPAL +25bps q1 beat, shows share gains
XILINX -8.7% q4 small eps beat, revs inline
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS -2.1% q1 eps/revs/margins small beat
LEVEL 3 -5bps q1 miss but raises fy ebitda growth view
AVNET -6.2% q3 eps beat, revs miss, q4 view below est
DIEBOLD -3.9% q1 loss, revs miss
SYMANTEC -6.7% CEO out, cuts q4 view
TIME WARNER CABLE +75bps q1 beat
TERADYNE -8.5% q1 beat but q2 revs seen below street
ON ASSIGNMENT +7.7% q1 miss but sees q2 better than est
SHUTTERFLY +50bps q1 loss, revs beat
SIRIUS XM -1.5% q1 inline, boosts fy subscriber forecast
VIACOM -3.2% q2 beats on late qtr movies while ads fall
PRICELINE -2.7% CEO resigns over personal conduct
MEREDITH +3.6% q3 eps and revs beat
TEXTURA +30.7% to be acq’d by ORACLE for $663mm
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS +1.6% q1 revs inline
CYPRESS SEMI -10bps solid guide and CEO leaving, buying BRCMs IoT biz

VERTEX +2.7% q1 miss
CR BARD +1.9% q1 beat, fy raise
UNIVERSAL HEALTH +2.1% eps beat, revs inline
ST JUDE +25.6% to be acq’d by ABBOTT for $25bln
THERMO FISHER -1.2% q1 beat, raises fy view
VARIAN MEDICAL -2.9% q2 eps beat, revs miss, cuts fy revs view
ABBVIE +80bps q1 eps beat, revs just miss, $5.8bln acq
QIAGEN -3.9% q1 eps miss, reaffirms
BRISTOL-MYERS +2.9% q1 beat
CARDINAL HEALTH -9.3% q3 beats, fy view now below est
CELGENE +1.8% q1 beat, cuts 2017 tgt
MEAD JOHNSON +3.5% q1 beats, reaffirms
ZIMMER BIOMET -80bps q1 beat, raises fy view
ALERE +1.5% Abbot says can finance deal in addition to St Jude acq

CHEESECAKE FACTORY -25bps q1 eps beat though comps touch light
DOLBY LABS +12.8% q2 beat & raise
PILGRIMS PRIDE +12.4% q4 eps beat
CALLAWAY GOLF +20bps q1 eps beats, revs light, raises fy view
MARRIOTT INT’L +80bps q1 eps beats
O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE -2.8% q1 beat but comps weaker
BEAZER HOMES -15.4% q2 loss narrows
SPECTRUM BRANDS +2.3% q2 beat
GNC -28.9% q1 miss
RESTAURANT BRANDS +1.1% q1 eps/comps beat, revs miss
CABELA’S +20bps q1 eps beat, revs/comps miss
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE +2.7% q1 inline, boosts fy view
CARTER’S -1% q1 beat, raises fy view
DUNKIN’ BRANDS -80bps q1 eps/comps beat
FORD +3.2% q1 eps beat, revs miss
LOGITECH -6.7% q4 eps small beat, revs touch light
RENT-A-CENTER -12.8% q1 eps beat, revs/comps miss
LA QUINTA +6.8% q1 loss narrower than est
LIFELOCK -13.4% q1 revs beat but q2 seen below est
TEMPUR SEALY -40bps q1 eps beat/revs miss
RUTH’S HOSPITALITY -8.1% q1 eps miss, revs inline, new $60mm b/b
AMERICAN AIRLINES -2% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
BRUNSWICK -5.6% q1 eps inline, revs miss, raises low-end of fy view
COCA-COLA ENTERPRISES +3.7% q1 beat, reit fy rev view
DOMINO’S -9.9% q1 eps/revs miss
HARMAN -13.3% q3 miss, lowers fy view
PINNACLE FOODS -1.8% q1 eps inline, revs miss

FIRST SOLAR -8.2% q1 sales miss
OSHKOSH +13.3% q2 beats, raises fy view
RAYTHEON -1.8% q1 beat & fy raise
VISTEON +50bps q1 eps beat, revs miss
AMETEK -8.1% q1 inline, lowers fy view
BORGWARNER -5.6% q1 beat, cuts fy rev growth

OCWEN FINANCIAL -21.8% q1 loss
ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN -3.8% q1 eps light, revs beat
INVESCO -3.8% q1 eps and revs Miss
CIT +10bps q1 eps 1c light
AETNA +70bps q1 eps and revs beat, guide to upper end
MOELIS -1% q1 eps and revs Miss
XL GROUP -8.7% q1 eps 15c Miss
CME GROUP -2.3% q1 eps/revs broadly inline
MARSH & MCLENNAN +90bps q1 eps and revs ahead
MASTERCARD -1.2% q1 eps/revs solid

CBRE GROUP +90bps q1 beat
IRON MOUNTAIN +60bps q1 ffo ahead, revs light
MACK-CALI +3.1% q1 ffo/revs inline
AVALON BAY unch’d q1 ffo/revs beat
EMPIRE STATE REALTY TRUST +65bps q1 ffo/revs ahead

DOW CHEMICAL -35bps q1 eps beats, revs inline, merger on track
BUNGE +3.4% q1 beat
BEMIS -6.6% q1 miss, lowers top end of view
POTASH -3.4% q1 miss, cuts fy yr
HUNTSMAN +2.5% q1 beats, revs slight miss, price hikes going through
CARBO CERAMICS -13.1% q1 loss wider than est
AIR PRODUCTS +15bps q2 beat, raises fy
VALE +50bps q1 revs, adj ebitda all beat

WHITING PETROLEUM -3.8% q1 loss wider than est
ANTERO RESOURCES -5.7% q1 eps just misses
NAT’L OILWELL VARCO +4.4% q1 loss less than est
PATTERSON-UTI +30bps q1 loss less than est
SUNCOR +2.3% q1 loss wider than est, sees prod above est
NOBLE CORP -5.9% q1 miss
CONOCOPHILLIPS -90bps q1 loss touch less than est
ENSCO -2.6% q1 eps light

KIRBY -1.9% q1 eps inline, revs miss
UPS -1.5% q1 eps beat, revs small miss

WASTE MANAGEMENT +3.4% q1 eps beat
FTI CONSULTING +15.4% q1 beat, raises view