Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.01% (2091.6), D +0.12% (18003.8), N -1.47% (4474.2), CL1 +1.30% (43.74), Copper +0.64% (226.95), Gold -1.13% (1233.91) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.8860), DXY +0.55% (95.12), Vix -4.66% (13.30).

The S&P closed up 35bps from the European close/lows of the day to get back to flat for the day. Volumes flat w/ yesterday at 7.4bln shares, bit less than 10% above avg. Dollars traded flat too at $278bln, closer to 15% above avg. 2:1 up volume over down volume today.

Mixed session, Shorts outperforming vs weakness in higher quality Nasdaq. Most Short +1.6%. S&P +50bps on the week. DXY +40bps this week breaking out of short term downtrend, JPY weakness driving. Rates continue to move higher, 10yr moved from 1.72 to 1.88%; focus on Fed next week but nothing expected. Commods mixed given $ strength, Oil still struggling at 200dma (+5% this week), lot of blue sky on copper chart, Gold back at 50dma support. SWN +15%. FREEPORT +1.3% report Tuesday, looking to cut $20bn debt. Focus remains on earnings, and not so good today…. AUTONATION +3% (weak numbers, 10% short base), CROWN CASTLE +2% (Buy, remains our best play on growing data demand), CATERPILLAR -40bps (cutting outlook again, but market remains below, not willing to call the bottom in China), GENERAL ELECTRIC -70bps (Buy, organic revs light, remains solid bet on GDP recovery), VISA -2.1% (QCC, weakness a Buying op, favorable Visa Europe terms), KIMBERLY CLARK -3.7% (QCC, organic growth light), AMERICAN AIRLINES -4.5% (numbers ok but Yields to remain weak for longer), ALPHABET -5.5% (key metrics a little light, well owned), STARBUCKS -5% (QCC, tech co that happens to sell terrible coffee, focus on China expansion), MICROSOFT -7.2% (QCC, weak Q4 guide, just off all time highs into print). Another crazy earnings week ahead, with several of our coverage names; AAPL, CELG, GILD, FB, LNKD, MA, MNST, SWKS, TMUS, TXN, VFC. Full list below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Railroads +4%, Explorers +3.2%, Oil Services +2.5%, Inv Banks +1.4%, Real Estate +1.3%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Software -3%, Gold Miners -2.8%, Airlines -2.1%, Homebuilders -90bps, Materials -70bps

COMMODS: Nat Gas +2.4%, WTI +1.3%, Ally +1.2%, Copper +80bps, Silver -1.1%, Gold -1.5%, Corn -2.8%, Wheat -5%

ECO: Markit Man PMI 50.8, est 52.0.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Oil Services +10%, Drillers +9%, Inv Banks +6%, Autos +4%, Materials +3%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Utils -3%, Airlines -3%, Software -2%, Tech Hardware -2%, Homebuilders -1.2%


MICROSOFT -7.2% q3 eps miss, revs inline
SECUREWORKS unch’d IPO debut
FIREYE +6.5% u/g @ OTR Global
ALPHABET -5.5% q1 miss
AMD +52.3% q1 best, raises guidance
VERIZON +1% q1 eps inline, revs touch light
ERICSSON +25bps d/g @ Bernstein
PROOFPOINT +5.8% q1 loss less than est
MAXIM +2.2% q1 inline

SAREPTA +35.7% recovers some as FDA adds voting questions
VALEANT +7.9% said in talks to hire PERRIGO -5.7% CEO
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES +19.2% q1 loss less than est

MCDONALD’S -25bps q1 and comps beat
AMERICAN AIRLINES -4.5% q1 eps beat but outlook dissapoints
MICHAEL KORS -10bps negative comments @ ITG
O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE -5bps positive comments @ Wedbush
STARBUCKS -4.9% q2 inline, revs miss as sales slow
UNDER ARMOUR +15bps p/t raised @ Brean
AUTONATION +3% q1 miss though reverses from early weakness
NORDSTROM -3.2% d/g @ Evercore ISI
UNITED CONTINENTAL -3.8% d/g @ Sterne Agee
BOSTON BEER -8% q1 miss
HANESBRANDS +1.3% q1 beat, reaffirms
SKECHERS +6.3% q1 beat
SHERWIN WILLIAMS +60bps q1 beats, raises

CATEPILLAR -40bps q1 small miss, recovers from losses as cuts high end of fy view
HONEYWELL -65bps q1 beat guides q2 little lower than est
GENERAL ELECTRIC -70bps q1 beat, reaffirms
UNITED RENTALS +1.8% d/g @ RBC Capital
WABCO +1.8% q1 eps/revs beat

COMERICA +3.6% urged by hldrs to consider sale
FIFTH THIRD +50bps d/g @ Hilliard Lyons
VISA -2.1% q2 eps/rev small beat, down on amendment to Visa Europe pact
BNY MELLON +90bps d/g @ Argus
SUNTRUST +5.2% q1 eps/revs beat
AMERICAN EXPRESS +50bps d/g @ Deutsche

CROWN CASTLE +2.2% q1 beat

NORFOLK SOUTHERN +10.5% q1 eps beats

USG +2.3% u/g @ CL King
LYONDELLBASELL -55bps q1 eps beat, revs light

SCHLUMBERGER -40bps more job cuts sees cash crisis in sector
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY +15% q1 eps/revs beat
Next week’s Eco and Earnings highlights…..

MON: Halliburton, Pioneer Nat, Xerox; New Home Sales

TUE: 3M, Ally Fin, AK Steel, Apple, AT&T, Baxter, Coach, Corning, Du Pont, eBay, Eli Lilly, Fortinet, Freeport, Hershey, JetBlue, Lockheed, Masco, Parker Hannifin, P&G, Reynolds, T-Mobile, Terex, Twitter, US Steel, Whirlpool, Wynn; Carmax AM; Durable Goods, CaseShiller, Services/Comp PMI, Consumer Confidence

WED: Baker Hughes, Boeing, Cavium, Comcast, Dr Pepper, Facebook, First Solar, General Dynamics, Goodyear, Hilton, Infinera, L-3 Comm, Lear, Marriot, Mondelez, Northrup Gruman, Owens Corning, PayPal, Rockwell Auto, SanDisk, Santander Consumer, State Street, Texas Ins, Utd Tech, Vertex, Xilinx; Pending Homes Sales, FOMC

THU: Abbvie, Air Products, Amazon, Amgen, Ball, Baxalta, BioMarin, BorgWarner, Bristol Myers, Celgene, Colgate, ConocoPhilips, Dow Chem, Expedia, Ford, Gilead, Juniper, LinkedIn, Martin Marietta, MasterCard, Mead Johnson, Nu Skin, Raytheon, Skyworks, Synaptics, Time Warner Cable, UPS, Virgin America; NXP Semi AM; BOJ; GDP

FRI: Chevron, Eaton, Exxon, Monster Bev, Newell Rubbermaid, Philips 66, Praxair, Seagate, Spirit Aero, Tyco, Valeant, VF Corp; Personal Income/ Spending, PCE, Chicago PM, Michigan Sentiment
Have a great weekend…..