Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.52% (2091.5), D -0.63% (17982.5), N +0.01% (4540.8), CL1 -1.56% (43.52), Copper +0.45% (225.55), Gold +0.35% (1248.60) 10YrYld +0.02 (1.8610), DXY +0.18% (94.66), Vix +4.82% (13.91).

Markets give up 3 day rally, S&P struggling again at 2100, focus remains on earnings. S&P -40bps from Euro close. Most Short -1.1%. Overall volumes -3% DoD and 7% above 20d ave. DXY small but the downtrend remains; EUR 1.1290, JPY 109.48. Rates continue to edge higher, Fed next week; Banks starting to show signs of exhaustion following 14% rally; DY proxies underperforming (Staples/Utils/Telco). Oil hitting some resistance at 200dma ($44.48), would fancy a proper squeeze if that breaks; Copper now above the level. FREEPORT -7%, VALE -9% – will be interesting to see how Iron Ore etc trade tonight in China post margin raise. In Single Stocks, all about earnings again today; SERVICENOW +14% (Bubblebox, impressive Beat & Raise), UNITED RENTALS +8% (rental rates remain under pressure, big short cover), UNDER ARMOUR +7% (low expectations, but Beat and solid guide), TRACTOR SUPPLY +5% (QCC, reaffirms FY), F5 NETWORKS +5% (Buy, mixed guide but remains our preferred name in the space), GENERAL MOTORS +1.5% (Buy, strong numbers against weak sentiment), YUM BRANDS -1% (QCC, China comps outperforming), MATTEL -6% (QCC, margins weak), LV SANDS -9% (Macau remains under pressure, prefer MGM), LITHIA MOTORS (cuts FY guide, further signs of peak profits in auto retail), ERICSSON -15% (Sell, Miss & Cut, Neil been spot on here). Full thoughts on GM/ERIC/FFIV/TSCO/URI/YUM on today’s note. We also reiterate Sell CISCO -70bps following negative reads from EMC/ERIC/JNPR; earnings 5/13. APPLE (Sell) remains for sale into earnings, cautious takeaways from QCOM -80bps/VZ -3.3%. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from AAL, AN, CAT, GE, HON, IPG, KMB, MCD, STI.

OUTPERFORMERS: Biotech +3%, Railroads +2.4%, Gold Miners +1.8%, Refiners +1.3%, Autos +1.1%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Telco -2.7%, Airlines -2.4%, Utils -2.2%, Real Estate -1.8%, Staples -1.7%

COMMODS: Gasoline +90bps, Soybeans +80bps, Copper +50bps, Gold -30bps, Silver -60bps, WTI -1.7%, Corn -2.8%, Coffee -3.7%

ECO: Initial Jobless 247k, est 265k. Philly Fed -1.6, est 9.0. FHFA HP Index 0.4%, est 0.4%. Leading Index 0.2%, est 0.4%.


ALPHABET -6% Q1 EPS $7.50, est $7.96. Revs $16.47bn, est $16.57bn. Paid Clicks +29%, est +26.8%.
CROWN CASTLE -1% Q1 solid and small raise to AFFO guide
MAXIM Q3 EPS/Revs inline
MICROSOFT -5% Q3 EPS 62c, est 64c. Revs $22.08bn, est $22.09bn.
NORFOLK SOUTHERN +4% Q1 EPS $1.29, est 98c. Revs $2.42bn, est $2.40bn.
SCHLUMBERGER +1% Q1 EPS 40c, est 39c. Revs $6.52bn, est $6.57bn, Oil market outlook unch
STARBUCKS -4% Q2 EPS/Revs inline. Comps +6%, est +6.5%. reaffirms FY.
SWIFT TRANS -2% Q1 EPS ahead, Revs light. Sees FY EPS $1.45-55, est $1.51
VISA -6% Q2 EPS/Revs broadly inline, hit on concerns over Visa Europe deal


AEROPOSTALE (Halted -28%) preparing for bankruptcy
ALASKA AIR -2.8% Solid qtr, no change to capacity guide.
DR HORTON +1.1% Q2 EPS/Revs ahead, GM 19.95, est 19.8%; spring season off to a great start.
LAS VEGAS SANDS -9% seeing downgrades post weak earnings, Macao remains challenging
LITHIA AUTO -14% Q1 was broadly inline but weak Q2/FY guide
MATTEL -5.6% mixed numbers, margins weak
PHILIP MORRIS -1.7% raised to Hold at Soc Gen
PULTE -20bps Q1 EPS/Revs Beat, GM 21.9%, est 21.1%; focus remains on fall out between CEO and owner
SOUTHWEST AIR +1.3% Q1 EPS/Revs small beat, +ve commentary
UNDER ARMOUR +7% Q1 EPS/Revs small beat, FY guide inline
UNITED CONTINENTAL -10% Sees Q2 PRASM -6.5-8.5%.
YUM BRANDS -1% China comps +6%, est +2.2%; In US, Pizza Hut comps beat but KFC/Taco Bell light

CONOCOPHILIPS -1.7% cut to Underperform at Jefferies
CORE LABS +5% Q1 EPS/Revs light; Q2 guide inline
DOVER -1.6% Sees FY organic Growth -5.8%, prev -1.4%
KINDER MORGAN -4.5% Q1 Revs 15% Miss, credit concern list applies to 5% of customers, reaffirms Div forecast.

AMERICAN EXPRESS +1% Q1 EPS 10c Beat, Revs inline and reaffirms FY EPS guide
BLACKSTONE -4.4% Q1 ENI 31c, est 40c
CITIZENS +50bps Q1 EPS/Revs inline, raised Div, NIM 2.86%.
COMERICA +40bps raised to Neutral at BAML
FIFTH THIRD +70bps Q1 EPS/Revs ahead, NIM 2.91%, est 2.87%.
KCG HOLDINGS +6% Q1 Revs 10% Beat
KEYCORP +1.2% Q1 EPS 1c light, Revs inline; NIM 2.89%, est 2.88%.
TRAVELLERS -5.7% Q1 EPS $2.33, est $2.55.

AMERICAN RENAL IPO +20% priced 7.5m shares at $22.00 (range $20-23), opened $26.50
BIOGEN +5.2% Q1 EPS $4.79, est $4.44. Revs $2.73bn, est $2.74bn.
DANAHER +1.1% Sees FY EPS at upper end
RELYPSA +10.4% ongoing t/o speculation
SAREPTA -44% -ve FDA decision

BLACK & DECKER +3.7% Q1 EPS/Revs Beat, raised FY EPS guide
CATERPILLAR -1.4% March machine sales -13%
CUMMINS -1.3% cut to Underperform at Baird
GENERAL MOTORS +1.5% Q1 EPS $1.26, est 99c; Revs $37.3bn, est $35.6bn. Strong across the board.
JOHNSON CONTROLS +4.7% Q2 EPS/Revs ahead, raised Q3 EPS guide, Tyco ontrack
PPG -5% Q1 EPS/Revs inline
ROCKWELL COLLINS -5.2% reaffirms FY
SHERWIN WILLIAMS -90bps Q1 EPS/Revs Beat; raised FY EPS guide
TRACTOR SUPPLY +4.7% Q1 EPS/Revs ahead, reaffirms FY
UNITED RENTALS +8% cuts rental rate guide
USG +3.7% Q1 EPS/Revs decent Bear
VALMONT +12% Q1 EPS Beats, Revs Miss; shorts hurting

JOY GLOBAL -20bps cut to junk at S&P
NEWMONT +5.7% reaffirms FY gold production.
NUCOR -1.6% weak qtr, see significant improvement in Q2

MANPOWER -7.4% Q1 mixed and guide inline

APPLE -1.1% cautious commentary continues ahead of 4/26 earnings
CITRIX +4.4% Impressive Beat & Raise
ERICSSON -15.2% Huge Miss across the board
F5 NETWORKS +5.5% Q2 and guide mixed
LAM RESEARCH +2.7% Q3 and guide solid, focus remains on completing KLAC deal
LINKEDIN +2.7% cut to Mixed at OTR Global
MELANOX -12% Q1 Solid but lowers Q2 Rev guide.
QUALCOMM -80bps Q2 EPS/Revs Beat, guides Q3 lower
SERVICENOW Q1 Beat, billings strong and raised guide
SONY ADR cut to Neutral at JPM
TIME WARNER HBO renews Game of Thrones, Silicon Valley and Veep for 2017
VERIZON Q1 EPS inline, Revs 1% light; reaffirms FY Capex
VIACOM reached programming deal with Dish

Have a good evening.