Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P -0.10% (2080.7), D -0.16% (17897.5), N -0.25% (4543.2), CL1 -2.55% (40.44), Copper -0.94% (215.05), Gold +0.50% (1234.04) 10YrYld -0.04 (1.7518), DXY -0.19% (94.72), Vix -0.58% (13.64).
The S&P closed down 5bps from the European close inclusive of a 20bps rally off the day’s lows over the last 2hrs. Narrow range though of just 30bps or so on the day. Despite expiration, volumes slightly down to 6.5bln shares, 500mm below avg. Dollars traded up small to $230bln, still $20bln below avg. About a 50/50 split between up & down volume.

Market close small down on the day; S&P +1.6% on the week, led by Banks +7%. DXY pulling back a little, remains up on the week +30bps. Rates also a little lower, downtrend remains; Banks -50bps. China data reassuring and confirms some of our recent commentary; FXI -1.1%. EM mixed; EEM -60bps, EWZ +20bps. Focus on Rouseff impeachment vote Sunday. Oil +1.6% on the week, pulling back to $40 ahead of Sunday’s freeze meeting, Rigs -3. Gold back above 50dma. On Earnings; INFOSYS +8% (Solid Beat and rev guide), REGIONS FINANCIAL +3% (Solid Q1), FIRST REPUBLIC +1.4% (Solid Q1), CITI (Q1 EPS/Revs ahead, remains our top pick in the space, full thoughts on the note), IXIA -16.5% (another reason to Sell ERICSSON), SUPER MICRO -20% (cuts Q3 Rev, we believe a red flag for INTEL -1% who report Tuesday). APPLE (Sell) -2% coming under pressure from Nikkei article suggesting co will continue reduced production through June; follows multiple supply chain warning, notably TSMC yesterday; SKYWORKS (Sell) -2.2%. In M&A, POLYCOM -2% being acquired by MITEL -10% for $2bn. ELECTRONIC ARTS +3% on unconfirmed reports of DISNEY interest. BATS GLOBAL MARKETS +21% IPO the biggest of the year, priced at $19, opened at $22.88; giving market cap >$2bn. See aviatelive for full details. Big earnings week coming up alongside some key housing data; IBM/MS/NFLX (Sell) on Monday, full details below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +2.8%, Materials +1.4%, Retail +80bps, Utils +70bps, Real Estate +60bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Refiners -3%, Tech Hardware -1.5%, Energy -1.4%, Inv Banks -1.3%, Semis -1%

COMMODS: Sugar +5.8%, Gold +60bps, Silver +50bps, Ally -30bps, Copper -90bps, WTI -2.9%, Nat Gas -3.15

ECO: Empire Man 9.56, est 2.00. Ind Production -0.6%, est -0.1%. Man Prod -0.3%, est +0.1%. Michigan Sentiment 89.7, est 92.0.

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +9%, Banks +7%, Drillers +5%, Airlines +4.5%, Autos +3.8%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Refiners -2.5%, Food&Bev -1.5%, Staples -90bps, Telco -50bps, Utils +30bps

FITBIT +5.3% #s, p/t raised @ Piper
MICRON +2.8% init buy @ Brean, u/g @ Raymond James
POLYCOM -2% as indicated to be acq’d by Mitel in $2bln deal
STRATASYS -13.2% d/g @ Citi
INFINERA -40bps u/g from sell @ Goldman
INFOSYS +8.4% q4 net income, forecast beat
GOPRO -20bps cautious comments @ Piper Jaffray
APPLE -2% report of continued prod cuts in press
INTEL -1.1% press report of job cuts

PEPSICO +60bps positive checks @ Wells Fargo
SEAWORLD -3.1% d/g @ Citi
FOOT LOCKER -5bps d/g @ Cowen
STARBUCKS +60bps reit a top pick @ Piper Jaffray
SOUTHWEST +70bps u/g @ Barclays

CITI -15bps q1 beats on cost cuts
REGIONS FINANCIAL +3.1% q1 eps beat

UNITED RENTALS -55bps cautious comments @ Morgan Stanley
BRIGGS & STRATTON -4% d/g @ Baird
CATEPILLAR +15bps u/g, street high p/t @ Vertical
JOY GLOBAL +4.3% p/t raised @ Baird

ZIMMER -1.2%, STRYKER -30bps both reit sell as high conv ideas @ Citi
SYNERGY PHARMA +5.2% mkt talk of Allergan interest

RIO TINTO -70bps CEO says iron ore rally unsustainable

ENCANA -2.8% d/g @ Evercore ISI
DEVON ENERGY +15bps u/g @ Evercore ISI
ENSCO -6.5% offering price dissapoints
ANTERO +85bps / ANADARKO -1.1% u/g @ JPMorgan
PATTERSON-UTI -3.3% d/g @ JPMorgan
HELMERICH & PAYNE -2.6% d/g @ JPMorgan

EXPEDITORS +1.1% u/g @ Barclays

Next week’s Earning and Eco highlights….

MON: Hasbro, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, PepsiCo, WW Grainger; NAHB Housing
TUE: Brinker, Comerica, Discover FS, Goldman, Harley Davidson, Ilumina, Intel, J&J, Omnicom, Philip Morris, United Health, VMware, Yahoo; Signet AM; Housing Starts
WED: Abbott, American Express, Coca-Cola, EMC, F5 Networks, Lam Research, LV Sands, Mattel, Newmont, Qualcomm, Sketchers, St Jude, Stryker, Textron, Tractor Supply, United Rentals, US Bancorp, Yum; MGM Growth Properties IPO; Existing Home Sales
THU: Alaska Air, Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Biogen, Black & Decker, Blackstone, Citizens, Crown Castle, Dover, DR Horton, Etrade, Fifth Third, General Motors, Johnson Controls, Keycorp, Maxim, Microsoft, Norfolk Southerm, Nucor, PPG, Pulte, Schlumberger, Sherwin Williams, Southwest Air, Starbucks, Under Armour, Union Pacific, USG, Verizon, Visa; American Renal IPO; Philly Fed, FHFA House Price
FRI: American Airlines, AutoNation, Caterpillar, General Electric, Honeywell, Interpublic, Kimberly Clark, McDonalds, SunTrust, Synaptics; SecureWorks IPO; Markit Man PMI

Have a great weekend.