Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.01% (2082.7), D +0.10% (17926.4), N -0.00% (4554.6), CL1 -0.62% (41.50), Copper +0.07% (216.95), Gold -1.31% (1226.18) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.7902), DXY +0.23% (94.97), Vix -1.01% (13.73).

The S&P closed inline with the European close unable to make a real move either way today. Volumes light off 15% to 6.6bln shares falling below avg of 7bln. Dollars traded off 20% to $220bln, close to 15% below avg. Down volume edging ahead of up by 55-45 margin.

Markets holding onto yesterday’s gains, Banks continue to lead. DXY higher again but remains in short term downtrend; EUR 1.1260, JPY 109.43. Rates also moving, 10yr testing 1.80%; BKX +1% testing 100dma. Bullard says higher rates will reduce bubble risks; Lockart against April. EM proxies seeing some profit taking, Singapore losens monetary policy; EEM -50bps, EWZ -1.3%. Focus remains on Rouseff impeachment vote on Sunday. Commods generally lower, Oil struggling at $42. Gold remains for sale, testing 50dma. GDX -3%, OSX -80bps. Carlyle said to be in talks to Buy BAKER HUGHES +4.6% assets. On Earnings/updates; FIRST REPUBLIC +3.5% (all time highs post earnings, leading KRE rally), BANK OF AMERICA +2.5% (Q1 EPS inline, Revs 4% light, credit loss provisions +25% YoY), DELTA +1% (Q1 EPS 2c beat, Revs inline, “tremendous momentum”) WELLS FARGO -50bps (Q1 earnings mixed, O&G portfolio remains under significant stress), PIER 1 -6% (another weak Retail guide), SEAGATE -20% (-ve Q3 pre, very weak demand) . We reiterate our APPLE unch (Sell) concerns following disappointing Q2 guidance from TSMC (ADR -3.3%), cutting forecast for smartphones, PC, tablet and CE markets (AAPL reports 4/25). GAMESTOP +60bps hosts Investor Day, highlights growth prospects from VR; new highs NVIDIA +30bps (Buy) our preferred eGaming play. FACEBOOK +30bps (Buy) several brokers defending the stock this morning. Steel M&A, German press suggesting Thyssen could merge with key competitor; MITTAL ADR +4%. SYNAPTICS +7% hoping to close deal with Chinese suitor by month end (bberg), $110 mentioned, further ~25% upside. LATTICE SEMI -10% huge squeeze yesterday, Tsinghua has no intention of full t/o. Big China data dump coming tonight; IP/Retail Sales/GDP. Looking into tomorrow; Earnings expected from Charles Schwab and Citi; In Eco, Empire Man, Ind Prod, Mich Sent. No major earnings on the close.

OUTPERFORMERS: Regional Banks +90bps, Explorers +80bps, Railroads +80bps, Inv Banks +70bps, Airlines +30bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -3%, Drillers -2.5%, Refiners -90bps, SOX -90bps, Oil Services -80bps

COMMODS: Coffee +1.1%, Ally +10bps, Copper unch, Silver -90bps, WTI -1.2%, Gold -1.7%, Gasoline -2%, Nat Gas -3.3%

ECO: Initial Jobless 253k, est 270k. CPI +0.1%, est +0.2%.

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
RED HAT +55bps u/g @ Pacific Crest
3D SYSTEMS +10.1% u/g @ BofA/Merrill
STRATASYS +5.9% preferred name in space but demand challenges per survey @ Piper Jaffray
TAIWAN SEMI -3.3% q1 miss, weakness at high end
SEAGATE -20.1% cuts q3 rev view
LINKEDIN +4% p/t lowered @ Evercore ISI
FACEBOOK +20bps reit buy @ Goldman and others
AMAZON +1% positive comments @ Bernstein
PRICELINE +1.4% positive checks @ Cantor
APPLE +5bps raised to mixed from negative @ OTR Global
LATTICE SEMI -15bps d/g @ Craig-Hallum, Tsinghua chair says no intention to buy
INTEL -1% neg comments @ Pacific Crest
MARVEL -3% good vol on move as neg channel checks in group @ Pacific Crest
SYNAPTICS +7.3% said to look for deal by end of month
POLYCOM +3.5% said in advanced talks with Mitel

FINANCIALS
BANK OF AMERICA +2.5% q1 eps/revs just miss but costs cuts exceed est, energy exposure lower
BLACKROCK +1.9% q1 eps miss as volatility hampers inflows
PNC FINANCIAL -55bps q1 eps/revs below est
FIRST REPUBLIC +3.5% q1 beat
WELLS FARGO -50bps q1 eps/revs just beat, energy reserves rise
PROGRESSIVE -3.4% q1 miss
MARKEL -15bps u/g @ William Blair
AFLAC +80bps u/g @ Macquarie

HEALTHCARE
BAXTER +75bps u/g @ Piper Jaffray
VALEANT -2.2% provides regulatory update, 1 notch d/g @ S&P, rallies off lows as Bill Miller says buying shares
HOLOGIC +70bps Icahn cuts stake

CAPITAL GOODS
LENNOX -1% d/g @ KeyBanc
GRACO -1.5% d/g @ SunTrust
INGERSOLL-RAND +55bps u/g @ Buckingham

CONSUMER
CHIPOTLE +2.6% u/g @ JPMorgan
COCA-COLA ENTERPRISES +90bps u/g @ Stifel
PEPSICO -90bps d/g @ Stifel
MCDONALDS +50bps said to look to p/e firms for real estate sales
WYNN unch’d: CEO stock purchase
PIER 1 IMPORTS -5.9% q4 eps beats but revs inline, momentum slowing
DELTA +95bps q1 beats
POLARIS -1.5% d/g @ Stifel
KATE SPADE -2.1% / FOOT LOCKER -90bps preferred names in space @ Citi
DICK’S SPORTING GOODS +30bps positive comments @ Canaccord
MOLSON COORS +3% up as AB INBEV +2.9% gets on same page as South African regulators on SABMiller deal

ENERGY
ENERGY XXI -80.4% files Chapter 11
HALIBURTON +20bps / BAKER HUGHES +4.6% said in talks w CARLYLE -1.1% to sell certain assests

MATERIALS
POTASH -2.6% along w/ others in space all d/g’d @ Cowen
AGRIUM -5.6% d/g off focus list @ Scotiabank
VALE -6.9% / RIO TINO +5bps d/g @ CLSA
ARCELORMITTAL +4.2% up on report Thyssenkrupp considering merging w a compeitior