Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +1.00% (2082.4), D +1.06% (17908.3), N +1.31% (4554.7), CL1 -1.40% (41.58), Copper +0.93% (216.70), Gold -1.03% (1242.55) 10YrYld -0.01 (1.7621), DXY +0.89% (94.80), Vix -6.87% (13.85).

The S&P closed up 30bps from the European close to the day at session highs once again. Volumes about flat with yesterday at 7.6bln shares vs avg of 7bln. Dollars traded up8% to $270bln vs $250bln avg. Better than 3/4 of volume printing to the upside.

Markets continue to push higher, with S&P hitting new ytd high. Most Short +3.1% (also at ytd high). DXY close to breaking down yesterday has since bounced 130bps, hawkish Fed commentary and CFTC spec $ longs at 2.5yr low; EUR 1.1278, JPY 109.29. Big squeeze in Europe; Miners +7% and Banks +6%. China trade data +ve; FXI +4%. EM proxies breaking higher; EEM +1.8%, EWZ +2.9%, EZA -2.3%. Oil rallied post Inv builds but faded over the afternoon; focus remains on Doha this Sunday. Copper pushing on despite $, but Gold lower. XME +2% (US STEEL +8%), GDX -3%. JP MORGAN +4% beat low expectations but enough trigger impressive rally across the space, BKX +4% testing March highs; BAML +4% and WELLS FARGO +3% report tomorrow. CITI +6% remains our preferred play given lag in TBV (see US ideas). CSX +5% really sums up this “risk on” tape, crappy numbers in a very troubled sector. Autos and Retail trade well against the well owned Staples/Telcos/Utils. Let’s see how long it all lasts….. Crazy move in FACEBOOK (Buy) -10bps, opened strong following +ve F8 takaways (see US ideas), then fell 5.5% on -ve Ad spending report, but then bounced as the data was said to be incorrect. In M&A; LATTICE +18% as Tsinghua (who also bought into WDC) take ~6% stake. MEDIVATION +8% said to have rebuffed bid from SANOFI; and Lonza said to have made approach for CATALENT +4% – both on our M&A Radar along with GIS, ICPT, MJN, RDUS, SYNA and WBMD.

OUTPERFORMERS: Inv Banks +4.2%, Regional Banks +3.8%, Autos +3.2%, Railroads +3.1%, Retail +2.7%

UNDERPERFORMERS: Gold Miners -2.8%, Telco -1%, Staples -80bps, Utils -70bps, Real Estate -40bps

COMMODS: OJ +3.8%, Corn +3%, Ally +1.6%, Nat Gas +1.3%, Copper +1.1%, Silver +50bps, Gold -1.1%, WTI -1.3%

ECO: Mortgage Apps +10%. Retail Sales Adv MoM -0.3%, est +0.1%. PPI Final Demand MoM -0.1%, est +0.2%.


ENERGY XXI -50% planning bankruptcy filing as soon as Thurs per press


FITBIT +12.2% positive comments ahead of #s @ Citi
SPRINT -2% d/g @ Pacific Crest
WESTERN DIGITAL +1.9% p/t raised, d/g @ Longbow
SEAGATE -3.2% d/g @ Deutsche
FACEBOOK -10bps positive comments post F8 conf @ Cantor, mixed view @ Pacific Crest
YAHOO +1.8% p/t raised @ SunTrust
GOPRO +19.2% positive comments @ Cleveland Research
FORTINET +3.5% positive comments @ OTR Global
LATTICE SEMI +18.4% Tsinghua reports stake

TITAN MACHINERY -50bps q4 loss inline, slight rev beat, still sees fy17 loss
TRANSDIGM +5bps d/g @ KeyBanc

JPMORGAN +4.2% solid q1 beat
ZIONS BANCORP +3.4% d/g @ Compass Point

VALEANT +3.5% Bausch & Lomb seen worth less than co. paid @ Wells Fargo, credit investor to file default notice
MEDIVATION +8% said to have turned down bid from Sanofi
STRYKER +15bps d/g @ Baird
DEPOMED +4.3% Starboard reports 9.2% stake, 35% increase from prev filing
ABBVIE -1.4% positive comments in Barron’s
TENET +9.3% u/g @ Susquehanna

ULTA BEAUTY +1.7% p/t raised @ Piper Jaffray
WYNN +50bps d/g @ Deutsche
STARBUCKS +1.2% init buy w/ street high p/t @ CLSA, positive comments @ Cleveland Research
STEVE MADDEN +1.8% d/g @ Piper Jaffray

CONTINENTAL RESOURCES -65bps u/g @ Deutsche
MARATHON OIL -1.5% d/g @ Wells Fargo
SCHLUMBERGER +1.9% reaffirms q1 rev view

PEABODY ENERGY -2.4% files voluntary Chap 11
ARCELORMITTAL +6.6% u/g @ Credit Suisse

CINTAS +85bps u/g @ KeyBanc

CSX +4.2% q1 eps inline, revs light

Have a good evening.