Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.97% (2061.7), D +0.94% (17721.3), N +0.84% (4496.0), CL1 +4.51% (42.19), Copper +2.82% (214.95), Gold -0.22% (1255.21) 10YrYld +0.05 (1.7743), DXY +0.04% (93.99), Vix -8.00% (14.98).

The S&P closed 30bps from the European close holding its best levels through the afternoon. Volumes up about 12% to 7.3bln shares moving past avg of 6.9bln. Dollars traded up about $6bln to $240bln just below avg. 85% of volume printing to the upside.

Markets higher across the board, Oil shorts leading. Most Short +3%. DXY seeing a little relief on EU debt/Brexit concerns, Yen stabilizing. Rates a little higher, 10yr 1.77%; JNK +70bps closed >200dma. IBOV +4% close to breaking out, retail sales beat; EEM +1.5% chart not far behind. Oil testing $42, reports suggest Saudi and Russia reached a consensus agreement on freeze, no mention of Iran, so I would be inclined to wait for 4/19 meeting in Doha. OSX +5%, XLE +3% (first close >200dma since Sept 14). Copper reversing recent weakness on China demand chatter, usual story behind big rally. Silver breaking out, Gold holding gains. CLIFFS +13%, FREEPORT +7%. On Earnings/updates; ALCOA -2.7% (messy numbers and too much uncertainty, dead money from here), FASTENAL -3.4% (inline numbers, commentary remains cautious), JUNIPER -7.4% (cut Q1 guidance, weaker demand in Enterprise and order delays), HORIZON PHARMA -26% (cuts Q1/2 Rev guidance). Despite the rally today, I’m struggling to find any real positive out there, I can count 17 misses/warnings in April so far. AA, APOL, BBRY, CREE, FAST, FSLR, HTZ, HZNP, JNPR, KMX, LVMUY, MON, MRVL, MU, RT, SAP, WBA. New highs in QCC names 3M, JNJ, PM. FACEBOOK (Buy) +1.5% holding 50dma, Zuckerburg outlines 10yr plan at F8. Bank short exposure continues to be reduced ahead of busy earnings period; JPM arguably the most well owned, kick things off tomorrow morning. Retail sell off also halted ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales number, GAP -1.7% remains for sale; XRT +1.4%. SOX price action remain weak; SKYWORKS (Sell) -2% rolling.

OUTPERFORMERS: Explorers +5.7%, Drillers +5.2%, Oil Services +4.6%, Materials +2%, Regional Banks +1.9%

UNDERPERFORMERS: SOX -10bps, HHold Prod +20bps, Autos +50bps, Industrials +60bps, Staples +60bps

COMMODS: Nat Gas +5.6%, WTI +4.5%, Nickel +3.3%, Copper +3%, Ally +1.7%, Silver +1.4%, Gold +10bps, Sugar -60bps

ECO: NFIB Small Biz 92.6, est 93.5. Import Price Index MoM 0.2%, est 1.0%.


CSX +10bps Q1 EPS inline, Revs a little light; Volumes -5.1%, est -4.7%….no change to cautious view


JUNIPER NETWORKS -7.6% guides q1 below prev view
BAIDU +1.2% looking to secure $1bln loan per press
ROCKET FUEL -30bps init sell @ Citi
SAP +2.2% u/g @ Berenberg
F5 NETWORKS -2.2% est trimmed @ MKM Partners
NXP SEMI -40bps positive comments @ SunTrust
ACTIVISION +30bps new e-sports viewing record
APPLE +1.3% sees beat & raise, still conviction buy @ Goldman
ERICSSON -1.5% init sell @ CLSA
INFOSYS +10bps cautious ahead of #s @ Baird
FORTINENT -3.8% negative comments @ Piper Jaffray
INTERGRATED DEVICES +4% apparent bid for co but legitimacy questioned
FACEBOOK +1.5% F8 conference underway

STARBUCKS -2.4% d/g @ Deutsche Bank
L BRANDS -20bps d/g off conviction list @ Goldman
WOLVERINE WORLDWIDE +4.3% positive comments @ Stifel
DOMINO’S PIZZA -30bps d/g @ Maxim
BRINKER +2.4% p/t raised @ Maxim
AVON PRODUCTS +3.6% d/g @ Piper Jaffray
PERRY ELLIS +1.1% q4 inline w/ preannouncement
MCDONALDS unch q1 comps view boosted @ Cleveland Research
O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE +70bps u/g @ Wolfe Research
LENDING CLUB -1.2% peer to peer names under pressure as Citi ends a partnership in the space

HORIZON PHARMA -26% sees q1 likely below est
REGENERON +3% positive comments @ Brean Capital
ASTRAZENECA +30bps d/g to sell @ Goldman
SHIRE +90bps positive comments @ Jefferies
INTUITIVE SURGICAL +90bps p/t raised @ Leerink

SL GREEN REALTY +1.3% / VORNADO +2.4% u/g @ Credit Suisse
PHH +50bps d/g @ Sterne Agee
LEGG MASON +2% Trian sells 9.9% stake to Shanda Group
BANKUNITED +50bps u/g @ Deutsche

FASTENAL -3.4% q1 eps/revs miss

ALCOA -2.7% q1 eps beats but revs miss
CORNING +1% u/g @ Goldman
ARCELORMITTA +3.2% L u/g to conviction buy @ Goldman
3M +90bps p/t raised @ Jefferies

ENTERGY -30bps d/g @ BofA/Merrill
CHESAPEAKE +34.4% pledges virtually all assets to maintain credit line, u/g from sell @ Tudor Pickering
WHITING PETROLEUM +14.4% leveraged energy plays rally big on covering on headlines of Saudi/Russia output agreement

BOOZ ALLEN -3.6% d/g @ Raymond James