Aviate US Summary

The authors of the content on this page from Sept 2012 to June 2017 are:
Market Commentaries: Gary Paulin, Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Ben Brownette, Rob Arnott, James Santo, Neil Campling
Research: Ameet Patel, Paul Moran, Douglas Morton, Oliver Sherman, Rob Arnott, Neil Campling

S&P +0.28% (2047.6), D +0.20% (17577.0), N -0.01% (4474.9), CL1 +6.07% (39.52), Copper +0.48% (208.65), Gold -0.02% (1240.25) 10YrYld +0.03 (1.7184), DXY -0.27% (94.22), Vix -4.76% (15.40).

The S&P closed down 20bps from the European close including a 30bps rally in the last half hour back into positive territory. Volumes dropping off to end the week down 13% to 6.3bln shares vs 7.1bln avg. Dollars traded off 15% to $222bln, more than $30bln below avg. Despite the lasckluster index performance up volume was about 3:1 over down volume on the initial higher opening today.

Mixed session, futures drifting into the close, Oil proxies lead with Nasdaq lagging. S&P -1.2% on the week. DXY -30bps retesting session lows, 94 the level to watch; JPY 108.18, EUR 1.1401. Rates a little better and providing a little relief to the Banks; 10yr 1.71%, BKX +50bps. Important week for a space ahead with earnings from JPM, BAML, WFC, C; BAML flow show highlights 4th straight week of outflows, obvious underweight. Oil +7% on the week, a little nervousness creeping in ahead of April 17th meeting; Rigs -8. OSX +3%, XLE +2%. BZ proxies outperforming post inflation data, Rouseff pressure and Oil; VALE +10%, EWZ +6%. Gold finishes week on the highs +1.6% vs Copper on week lows -3.7%. ALCOA (Buy) -1.2% earnings Monday. Consumer concerns continue to grow following weak comps at GAP -14% and warning from RUBY TUESDAY -12%; XRT continues to roll, Retail Sales Wednesday. Biotech seeing another pull back after Wednesday’s big short squeeze; INTERCEPT -5% seeing dgrade despite +ve FDA decision. VALEANT -5% not considering selling Bausch and Lomb according to Ackman; seen as potential target for ALLERGAN -2%. ULTA SALON +3% going into S&P 500, replacing TENET. FACEBOOK (Buy) weaker on publishing concerns, possibly just an excuse to take some profits ahead of earnings 4/27; LINKEDIN (Sell) -3.6% on dgrade, new relative low. TESLA -3% no new news today, stock still +9% since Model 3 event. QLOGIC +7% said to explore sale. Next week’s highlights below.

OUTPERFORMERS: Materials +3.3%, Gold Miners +3.1%, Oil Services +2.9%, Transports +1%, Regional Banks +70bps

UNDERPERFORMERS: Biotech -1.2%, Retail -50bps, Pharma -50bps, Software -10bps, Telco +5bps

COMMODS: WTI +6.2%, Gasoline +5.5%, Cotton +1.9%, Silver +1.3%, Ally +1%, Copper +50bps, Gold +30bps, Nat Gas -1.5%

ECO: Nothing of interest

WEEKLY OUTPERFORMERS: Gold Miners +6.5%, Biotech +3%, Energy +1.9%, Pharma +1.2%, Airlines +1%

WEEKLY UNDERPERFORMERS: Inv Banks -6.5%, Retail -5%, Autos -4.5%, Regional Banks -3.4%, Insurance -3%

ACTIVE TODAY:

TMT
NXP SEMI +1.8% said to weigh ~$2bln sale of standard products business
LINKEDIN -3.6% d/g @ MKM
YAHOO -30bps said to extend deadline for bids
RETAILMENOT +13.5% $22mm acq, sees q1 revs better than est
QLOGIC +6.8% said to hire advisor to evaluate sale

CONSUMER
ULTA SALONS +3.3% to join S&P 500
JACK IN THE BOX +5.6% u/g @ Morgan Stanley
DOLBY -2.9% d/g @ JPMorgan
RITE AID -90bps d/g @ Deutsche
BOSTON BEER +1.6% u/g @ Citi
DULUTH HLDGS +21.9% q4 eps/revs beat
PRICESMART -1.8% q2 miss
GAP STORES -13.8% March comps down more than est, excess inventory
RUBY TUESDAY -11.9% cuts view, CFO out

HEALTHCARE
INTERCEPT -4.6% d/g @ Morgan Stanley
VALEANT -5.2% Ackman says co not selling Bausch & Lomb unit
DEPOMED +13% Starboard takes activist stake
ANGIODYNAMICS -5.3% q3 beat but cuts fy view

FINANCIAL SERVICES
ALLY FINANCIAL -2.1% d/g @ BofA/Merrill
CME GROUP -3.4% #3 holder sells stake as block trde

ENERGY
APACHE +3% u/g @ Wells Fargo

MATERIALS
US STEEL +3.1% d/g @ UBS

Next week’s Earnings and Eco highlights….

MON: Alcoa (pm)
TUE: CSX, Fastenal; Tiffany ID; NFIB Small Biz
WED: JP Morgan, SanDisk; Retails Sales, PPI, Beige Book
THU: AMD, Bank of America, Blackrock, Delta, Fairchild Semi, First Republic, Progressive, Taiwan Semi, Wells Fargo; GameStop ID; CPI
FRI: Charles Schwab, Citigroup, First Horizon, Infosys, Reynolds; Empire Man, Ind Production, Michigan Sent

Have a great weekend……